Senate 2012: GOP or Dems?

[POLLWONK]

Hey guys!

Who do you think will win the Senate in 2012? Vote and chat!

POLLWONK

[Alfonzo]

The Dems will probably keep the senate, but barely. They'll almost certainly win back the house. They may or may not (I'm on the side of 'may not') lose the presidency.

[ellchicago]

The Dems will probably keep the senate, but barely. They'll almost certainly win back the house. They may or may not (I'm on the side of 'may not') lose the presidency.

That is not realistic at all. The Republicans could easily win six seats in the senate, their only loss is in Massachusetts. The Republicans should hold seats in the House. President Obama is going to lose to Governor Romney in a landslide if unemployment is near or above 9%.

[POLLWONK]

Most likely scenario. Agreed. Romney would be far more appealing to undecideds then Obama. I think Massachusetts will definitly go for Elizabeth Warren. If Romney is nominated, then it will be a leaning Democrat state.

Romney would be an interesting twist to the political map. He would make Connecticut competitive as well as Maine. He would almost certainly clinch New Hampshire for the GOP and there is a distant possibility that Massachusetts could flip (I know, not very likely, but he was their governor).

I think the GOP will lose some House seats, but will maintain control. The Democrats will gain some seats, but losses in some districts will lessen their pickup...

House 2012 prediction...

GOP: 234 (-8)

DEM: 201 (+8)

Senate 2012 Prediction...

GOP: 53 (+6)

Dem: 47

Possible Dem leaning seats that could flip: OHIO, FLORIDA, PENNSYLVANIA, CONNECTICUT, WASHINGTON, MINNESOTA, WEST VIRGINIA

Possible GOP leaning seats that could flip: INDIANA, UTAH, MAINE, NEBRASKA, NORTH DAKOTA, and TEXAS

That is not realistic at all. The Republicans could easily win six seats in the senate, their only loss is in Massachusetts. The Republicans should hold seats in the House. President Obama is going to lose to Governor Romney in a landslide if unemployment is near or above 9%.

[POLLWONK]

The Dems will probably keep the senate, but barely. They'll almost certainly win back the house. They may or may not (I'm on the side of 'may not') lose the presidency.

There are probably about 6 or 7 Democratic controlled seats in the air. Two Democratic seats are leaning GOP (Nebraska and North Dakota). The Democrats would have to win either...

1. All 7 Democratic swing states

2. 6 of the 7 and win the Presidency (note: during a 50-50 split, the party of the VP becomes the ruling party in the Senate)

3. Hold 6 of the seven seats and win Massachusetts

Plus, you aren't counting on the possibility of a Republican surge in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, California, Connecticut, and Michigan.

Right now the odds are...

GOP winning Senate: 80%

DEM winning Senate: 10%

50-50 tie breaker: 10%

[POLLWONK]

That is not realistic at all. The Republicans could easily win six seats in the senate, their only loss is in Massachusetts. The Republicans should hold seats in the House. President Obama is going to lose to Governor Romney in a landslide if unemployment is near or above 9%.

I agree a gain of 5 seats is almost guaranteed for the GOP (considering past elections). I think they have a shot at gaining more. I think if the GOP ditches McConnell and choose McCain or DeMint, they'll have... I know this sounds really wild and i confess it is almost certainly not going to happen... a remote chance at winning 11 seats. McCain would fire up the Senate GOP. Again, I admit this is super unlikely, but I believe if the GOP did that, then it would be a Republican sweep.

POLLWONK

[POLLWONK]

That is not realistic at all. The Republicans could easily win six seats in the senate, their only loss is in Massachusetts. The Republicans should hold seats in the House. President Obama is going to lose to Governor Romney in a landslide if unemployment is near or above 9%.

I agree a gain of 5 seats is almost guaranteed for the GOP (considering past elections). I think they have a shot at gaining more. I think if the GOP ditches McConnell and choose McCain or DeMint, they'll have... I know this sounds really wild and i confess it is almost certainly not going to happen... a remote chance at winning 11 seats. McCain would fire up the Senate GOP. Again, I admit this is super unlikely, but I believe if the GOP did that, then it would be a Republican sweep.

POLLWONK

[ellchicago]

I agree a gain of 5 seats is almost guaranteed for the GOP (considering past elections). I think they have a shot at gaining more. I think if the GOP ditches McConnell and choose McCain or DeMint, they'll have... I know this sounds really wild and i confess it is almost certainly not going to happen... a remote chance at winning 11 seats. McCain would fire up the Senate GOP. Again, I admit this is super unlikely, but I believe if the GOP did that, then it would be a Republican sweep.

POLLWONK

I don't know if the Republicans could win 11 seats this cycle. DeMint as Senate leader would please the Tea Party, but alienate moderate Republicans, Independents, and dissatisfied Democrats needed to win elections. McCain moved back more towards the center-right, unfortunately not the center-right maverick that he was, but he would make the Republicans more appealing moderate Republicans, Independents, and dissatisfied Democrats.

[POLLWONK]

I get where you're coming from. DeMint's views don't reflect the moderates. The Tea-party however idolizes DeMint. He may just fire the Tea Party up enough as well as the GOP to push hard for big Senate gains.

I think McCain would be the most popular of the choices. McCain's anti-pork and anti-earmark ideas resonate with the tea party, while his views on the environment, gun control, and prisoners of war resonate with moderates and some Democrats.Not only that, but many Democrats like McCain for his cooperation with Senators Lieberman, Feingold, etc. He could easily help out the GOP.

McConnell is too isolating. Plus, he's too corrupt. if the Democrats attack his integrity in 2014, then he is a goner.

POLLWONK

I don't know if the Republicans could win 11 seats this cycle. DeMint as Senate leader would please the Tea Party, but alienate moderate Republicans, Independents, and dissatisfied Democrats needed to win elections. McCain moved back more towards the center-right, unfortunately not the center-right maverick that he was, but he would make the Republicans more appealing moderate Republicans, Independents, and dissatisfied Democrats.