Scottish Republic - 2015

[RFK/JFKfan]

Let's say that a referendum on Scottish independence is held in 2014, and the "Yes" side wins. The first-ever Scottish Presidential ELection is held the following year. I would guess that Scotland adopts a standard European-style party system - Social Democrats, Christian Democrats, Liberals, Socialists with the addition of a "Re-unite the Union" party. The Social Democrats dominate urban Scotland, while the Christian Democrats and the Liberals fight it out in most rural areas. The Socialists may sometimes challenge the Social Democrats in their traditional strongholds such as Glasgow.

Candidates:

Social Democrats:

Alex Salmond

Nicola Sturgeon (Off)

Gordon Brown (Off)

Charles Kennedy

Angus Robertson (Off)

Jim Murphy

Iain Gray (Off)

Christian Democrats:

Annabel Goldie

David Mundell

Michael Forsyth

John Scott

Liberals:

Michael Moore

Tavish Scott

Willie Rennie

Danny Alexander (Off)

Menzies Campbell (Off)

Socialists:

George Galloway

Tommy Sheridan (Off)

Rosemary Byrne

Any other ideas?

[gopprogressive]

I did a 2007 Scottish election scenario some time ago, I'll have to submit it again and perhaps do a 2011 one.

Out of curiosity, why did the SNP do so well in 2011? I heard they were going to lose to Labour.

[RFK/JFKfan]

Salmond's charisma and Gray's lack of, basically.

[Patine]

I have on my personal queue an independent Wales 2015 scenario, myself. I already had all the parties decided and got logos made by TotPC some time ago. It was, however, for Chancellor Forever and was a Cyrmu Parliament election, not a presidential one. I may actually take it up again.

As for this one, I think a similar idea was started by TotPC and GOP Progressive in tandem, but I look forward to see what you'll do.

[DuncanC]

Sounds like fun. If you were wanting to be realistic, I figure a date of around 2020 would make more sense, as you'd have to have left enough time for:

1) An Independence referendum

2) A monarchy referendum (at the moment, the SNP say they wouldn't expect to ditch the Monarchy in light of a pro-independence vote. Could leave it in place and have it as an issue in the campaign, I guess).

3) The possible break-up and realignment of the Scottish political parties.

I would say 'you ought to have Ruth Davidson in it' but in light of the Tory leadership election I guess that's a lot more obvious now than had I said it back in March. Likewise if you are setting it further in the future e.g. Jo Swinson becomes a more plausible candidate than Charles Kennedy.

[DuncanC]

Salmond's charisma and Gray's lack of, basically.

That's half right. Without examining the vote share more carefully I can't be sure, but I suspect two things also played a significant part:

1) The SNP policy to encourage their voters to use both votes for SNP candidates. Given that a successful constituency vote effectively cancels the list vote out other parties had tended to work on the assumption people would use their list vote for a different party and campaigned on that basis, whereas the high list vote for the SNP was essential for their taking a majority overall (the cancelling out effect being a major reason people has suggested such a thing was effectively impossible under the Scottish Parliament electoral system).

2) The collapse of the LibDem vote in light of the coalition (and possibly especially of the controversy over higher education funding). It's the kind of thing which often depends upon the local circumstances but in many parts of Scotland (as I said, I'd have to look at the figures more closely, but for evidence of this check out the Glasgow East by-election result) LibDem voters are more likely to switch to the SNP than either of the other major parties, so if the LibDem vote drops significantly as it did you'd expect other things being equal the votes of the SNP to go up.

[gopprogressive]

Duncan,

Would you like to take a look at the 2007 Treasurer and I did? I never was satisfied with it, so feel free to make or suggest changes. What's your email so I can send it to you?