World Parliament 2012

[mahaadoxyz]

Another one of my fantastical scenarios. Here's the idea: sometime later this year (this is the most unlikely thing that could possible happen, but still), somebody sets up a real, functional world government. And the body of primary importance in that government is a House of Commons-style Parliament: single-member geographically-based constituencies, each with roughly equal population. (That means, of course, that they don't exactly respect national boundaries.) Given that this House of Commons is the most important part of the new world government, it is assumed that the most prominent politicians will be running for it, and thus that the very most prominent politicians will be running for Prime Minister of the World. I'm actually working on a districting scheme where I split the world up into some 500-ish districts with about 12,000,000 people each (though the variance is a whole lot higher than is currently allowed in the U.S., because I'm not taking the time to draw my lines down the middle of random neighborhoods), and I've got about 400 districts done and am bogged down in China. Since China's Communist, that might not be so big a deal; I can just stipulate 100+ China districts each with a Communist running unopposed. (In theory I think the world government would want to force elections to be at least a little free and fair and all that, but since there's no actual democracy in China to base it on, I don't see as I have a choice.) Here's my idea as to parties:

Social Democratic - generally left-wing, including some potentially unsavory socialist types (like, formerly, Mubarak) Includes U.K. Labour Party.

Liberal - left-wing, more libertarian than the Social Dems, also just more moderate. Includes U.S. Democratic Party, U.K. Lib-Dems.

Conservative - right-wing, but sort of center-right. Includes U.S. Republicans, U.K. Tories.

National Independence - hard-right, anti-globalist. At least, that's my thinking, but I notice that quite a few sub-national independence parties (Bloc Quebecois, SNP, Plaid Cymru, various N. Irish parties) are quite left-leaning indeed. Any thoughts?

Islamist - uhh, Islamist. Need I say more?

Communist - likewise, they're the Communists. Some fringe candidates, some unopposed candidates.

Green - very liberal, very fringe-y. Maybe competitive in a handful of seats, like the Baltics or something.

Now, I have candidates for the Liberal and Conservative parties through the U.S. seats, and I have candidates for Social Dems, Liberals, and Conservatives throughout Canada and the British Isles, plus Greens through Canada and the Bloc Quebecois, currently under the Nationalist banner (which seems odd, see above) in the Quebec seat. But the thing is, I know the politics of these countries fairly well. If anyone wants to help me come up with candidate lists for any other countries, especially big ones like, oh, say, India, it would be much appreciated. I think it would be a little inefficient for me to type out the territories for each district I've done so far, since there are 400 of them, and post them all here, but if you let me know what region/country you're interested in I can send you the relevant parts. Southeast Asia is unfinished so far, though.

A rough sketch of the potential leaders and issues:

Social Democrats:

Ed Miliband

Manmohan Singh

Luis Inacio Lula da Silva

Liberals:

Barack Obama

Nick Clegg

Mir-Hossein Moussavi

Michael Ignatieff

Conservatives:

Angela Merkel

David Cameron

Dmitri Medvedev

Hamid Karzai

Nationalists:

Hmmm, actually, really no idea yet what I'm gonna do with this party

Islamists:

Mahmud Ahmedinejad

Communists:

Hu Jintao

Jim Jong-il

Raul Castro

Greens:

Oh, I don't know. Who are some good greens?

Issues:

I'm thinking a whole lot of constitutional issues. In fact, we could even say that this is an election to a constitutional convention of sorts, although in reality such a thing would be done giving each country at least one seat.

Hmmm, now there's an idea. Should I change it so that this is explicitly a constitutional-convention election, and make the representation rules something like, each nation gets at least one seat all to itself, and few enough seats that those seats average less than 12,000,000? Obviously that makes it bigger, but it also makes the apportionment into a little bit less work, since a whole lot of countries just plain have less than 12,000,000 people. Maybe I'll do that.

Anyway, lots of constitutional issues. Federalism (because it would be a federal world government, of course), separation of powers, all that good stuff.

What do people think?

[Patine]

Here's some suggestions for Green and Nationalist leaders.

GREEN

-Jacqueline Cremers, Secretary-General of the European Green Party (from the Netherlands)

-Cynthia McKinnley, US Green Party Presidential Candidate 2008 (from Georgia, United States)

-Kumi Naidoo, Greenpeace International Executive Director (from South Africa)

NATIONALIST

Two hard-line, far-right nationalists of big countries who've shown a definite dislike of the UN and foreign oversight over their nation's affairs are Sarah Palin (though not a world leader, she has her eye on the White House) and Vladimir Putin.

I hope this helps.

[mahaadoxyz]

Okay, working on a new round of districting. I've got the U.S. done, and set up Liberal vs. Conservative match-ups for each of the 27 districts.

1st, Boston: John Kerry vs. Olympia Snowe (ME + NH + MA + RI + East CT), Solid D

2nd, Albany: Kirsten Gillibrand vs. Jodi Rell (VT + Mainland NY + West CT), Leans D

3rd, New York: Charles Schumer vs. Peter King (NYC + Jersey City, NJ), Safe D

4th, Philadelphia: Joe Sestak vs. Chris Christie (NJ + Philadelphia, PA), Leans D

5th, Pittsburgh: Bob Casey vs. Pat Toomey (Rest of PA + East Ohio), Leans R

6th, Washington: Joe Biden vs. Mike Castle (DE + MD + DC + North/East Virginia), Likely D

7th, Cincinatti: Tim Kaine vs. John Boehner (Rest of VA + WV + KY + South OH), Likely R

8th, Charlotte: Kay Hagan vs. Richard Burr (NC + East SC), Likely R

9th, Atlanta: Jim Clyburn vs. Jim DeMint (West SC + Most of GA), Likely R

10th, Miami: Bill Nelson vs. Marco Rubio (South FL), Leans D

11th, New Orleans: Mary Landrieu vs. Bobby Jindal (North FL + South AL + South MS + East LA), Likely R

12th, Nashville: Al Gore vs. Richard Shelby (North-West GA + TN + Rest of AL + Most of MS), Likely R

13th, St. Louis: Jay Nixon vs. Mike Huckabee (Rest of LA + AR + MO, except Kansas City), Solid R

14th, Cleveland: Sherrod Brown vs. Richard Lugar (Most of OH + IN, except Chicago suburbs), Leans R

15th, Chicago: Barack Obama vs. Mark Kirk (Chicago & Suburbs, IL/IN), Safe D

16th, Detroit: Carl Levin vs. Rick Snyder (MI + North-East WI), Toss-Up

17th, Minneapolis: Amy Klobuchar vs. Tim Pawlenty (Rest of WI + MN + Most of IL), Likely D

18th, Kansas City: Tom Harkin vs. John Thune (West IL + IA + ND + SD + NE + KS + Kansas City, MO + Northern OK), Likely R

19th, Dallas: Eddie Bernice Johnson vs. Rick Perry (Most of OK + Northern TX), Solid R

20th, Houston: Bill White vs. John Cornyn (East TX), Toss-Up

21st, Phoenix: Tom Udall vs. John McCain (West TX + NM + Most of AZ), Toss-Up

22nd, Denver: Mark Udall vs. Jon Huntsman (Northern AZ + CO + UT + WY + ID + MT), Leans R

23rd, San Diego: Barbara Boxer vs. Darrell Issa (South-Western AZ, Very Southern CA), Likely D

24th, Los Angeles: Henry Waxman vs. David Dreier (Los Angeles & Suburbs, CA), Solid D

25th, San Francisco: Nancy Pelosi vs. Tom Campbell (Central CA), Solid D

26th, Los Vegas: Harry Reid vs. Brian Sandoval (NV + OR + Northern CA + Southern WA), Likely D

27th, Seattle: Patty Murray vs. Lisa Murkowski (Most of WA + AK + HI + PR + Other Territories), Likely D

Overall score: 11 Republican leads, 3 Toss-Ups, 13 Democratic leads; I think that's a reasonable spread, given that it looks like Obama would probably win re-election right now.

Any suggestions as to fringe candidates, probably Greens or Nationalists, especially if I'm making the Tea Party part of the Nationalists.

The U.K. has six seats, which work out to, roughly, the south of England, London, the East of England/part of the Midlands, Midlands/Yorkshire&Humber, North England, Scotland/Wales/N.Ireland. Those six seats have the following match-ups:

1st, Cornwall: Dawn Primarolo (L) vs. David Laws (LD) vs. Liam Fox ©, Likely C over LD

2nd, London: Harriet Harman (L) vs. Vince Cable (LD) vs. Boris Johnson ©, Likely L over C

3rd, Cambridge: Keith Vaz (L) vs. Norman Lamb (LD) vs. David Cameron ©, Solid C over L

4th, Birmingham: Ed Miliband (L) vs. Nick Clegg (LD) vs. Kenneth Clarke ©, Likely L over C

5th, Manchester: Andy Burnham (L) vs. Tim Farron (LD) vs. George Osborne ©, Leans L over C

6th, Glasgow: Douglas Alexander (L) vs. Danny Alexander (LD) vs. Peter Robinson ©, Likely L over LD

Likewise, current polling has Labour up 6-ish nationally, so I think it's not a stretch to see them winning 4 out of 6 seats.

The Vatican gets something like 13 million percent overrepresentation, and it uses that absurd influence to elect what I'm currently calling Pope Benedict XVI, but if anyone has a better idea about who the Church would deputize for something like this I'd love to hear it, unopposed.

[mahaadoxyz]

I note that the Greens in the European Parliament are part of a group with the European Free Alliance, which is mainly a minority national identity independence sort of thing, but with an exclusively left-wing slant. That explicitly includes SNP and Plaid Cymru, and some Catalonian and Basque parties in Spain. So I think I'm going to put all left-leaning minor parties of this form under the Green Party ticket, and right-wing parties that are right of main-stream conservativism as Nationalists, probably.

Also, re: Putin as a Nationalist. I had been thinking of him as a Conservative, actually. Is United Russia really so radically far-right? I guess they are kind of authoritarian and undemocratic, but people tend to act like they're a reasonable respectable conservative party.

[Red Dog Democrat]

Either you should replace Klobuchar with Feingold, or put Feingold in the race as a Social Democrat. He'd be a good Social Dem front-bencher.

[mahaadoxyz]

Yeah, I noticed the Feingold issue. The thing about Klobuchar is that she's wildly popular, so perhaps I might put Feingold in as a Social Dem.

Also, I've replaced Kirsten Gillibrand with Hillary Clinton, since that seat includes Westchester which is where Hillary's home was for her NY political career.

[Red Dog Democrat]

Some more American Social Dems:

Maria Cantwell in Seattle

Bernie Sanders in Albany

Some American Nationalists:

Jim Traficant in Pittsburgh

Pat Buchanan in Washington

Ron Paul in Houston

David Duke in New Orleans

Michelle Bachmann in Minneapolis

Virgil Goode or Rand Paul in Cincinnati

Bob Dornan in Los Angeles

[mahaadoxyz]

Is Cantwell really so far left to be a Socialist? Sanders, definitely, since he's the only U.S. Senator in history who describes himself as a socialist. (I love Bernie Sanders...) Maybe Barney Frank for Boston? Someone like Anthony Weiner for New York? Kucinich for Cleveland?

Ralph Nader is really, really old, as in he'll be 78 by then, but that's probably still a reasonable age to participate in a constitutional convention, so I'll put him down as a Green for the Boston district. (Incidentally, Ralph Nader used to be young. Weird.) I feel like he'd have to be a candidate for leader of the Greens, given that we're talking about a convention not a long-term parliament. Other American Greens: Cynthia McKinney (Atlanta), David Cobb (Houston), Rosa Clemente (New York), Pat LaMarche (Boston, which conflicts with Nader. Hartford's definitely in the Boston district, but it's a border area so I could theoretically cheat and run Nader in the Albany district instead.), Winona LaDuke (Minnesota).

Ooh, here's an idea: I could move DeMint to the Nationalist party for the Atlanta district and slot Gingrich in for the main-stream Conservative Party in his place. Palin for the Seattle district, obviously.

[Red Dog Democrat]

I'd say so, she's worked with Feingold on opposing Obama from the left, and Social Dem doesn't exactly mean Socialist, Tony Blair and Paul Keating were far from Socialist. Weiner and Kucinich are good social dems, and don't forget Bob King in the Detroit District.

To lead the Greens I suggest one of the leaders of the German Party.

[mahaadoxyz]

Erm, I was going to say "who the $#&@ is Bob King?" but then I looked him up on Wikipedia and... nope, still don't know who he is. Enlighten me.

And yeah, I imagine someone from Germany would be among the options for leaders of the Greens.

[Red Dog Democrat]

Erm, I was going to say "who the $#&@ is Bob King?" but then I looked him up on Wikipedia and... nope, still don't know who he is. Enlighten me.

And yeah, I imagine someone from Germany would be among the options for leaders of the Greens.

Leader of the UAW. I imagine the unions have pull in the Social Democrats.

[matvail2002]

European Union parties are a good way to work on your European section:

-Conservatives (Conservatives and Christian Democratic parties)

-Social Democrats (UK Labour Party,French Socialist Party,SPD, PSOE, PANOK)

-Liberals-However, beware than they are CR on economic issues in Europe (Lib Dems, Poland's Civic Platform, Belgian Liberals, Danish Venstre, VVD, French Modem, German FDP, Swedish and Finnish Centre parties)

-Greens

-Nationalists (Basically the European Free Alliance)

-Communists (French Communist Party, German Linke, Left Party in Sweden, Greek Communist Party)

Even with this, Liberal had a very different meaning in North America and elsewhere in the world. In many areas of Europe, Asia, South America and the Middle East liberal means libertarian.

Green - very liberal, very fringe-y. Maybe competitive in a handful of seats, like the Baltics or something.

The Baltics are more libertarian and green parties in the Baltics are more of the Agarian/centrist type. Maybe the Greens could be competitive in Berlin or places like where there is a big vote-splitting.

For Australia, I don't know how you will do it. The way I see it, Labour will be Social Democratic, Nationals will maybe be conservatives, and the Liberals will be divided in two between Conservatives and Liberals. Bob Katter will be a good nationalist candidate.

In New Zealand, Labour will be Social Democratic, the Nationals will be Conservative and the ACT will be Liberal.

In Canada, David Orchard in Saskatchewan is probably the most vocal nationalist candidate outside of Québec. For the Communists, there is maybe Amir Khadir in Montréal.

[mahaadoxyz]

The thing is that I'm envisioning the Nationalists as being right-wing, not just nationalist in the strict sense, and the European Free Alliance is explicitly left-wing. So Geert Wilders would be an exemplary Nationalist. Since the EFA has an alliance with the Greens, I'm going to make the kind of left-wing, minority-nation rights parties, like SNP or the Bloc Quebecoic, in with the Greens. My tendency is to keep parties together and to work pretty strongly off of international associations, so I'll probably put the Australian Liberals in with the Liberals.

[matvail2002]

European Free Alliance is explicitly left-wing

No, not all parties in the EFA are left-wing. Take the NVA for example.

[mahaadoxyz]

Ah, the EFA "generally" limits itself to progressive parties. Still, it feels weird to me to put Geert Wilders and Alex Salmond in the same party, you know?

[Patine]

As a note, given I've done some research on it lately, Africa may be a bit of a challenge, given many of it's leaders are somewhat hard to nail down into a party. For instance, Uganda, as a case and point: Yoweri Museveni, it's current president, is center-left on many fiscal issues, and believes in government funding to develop the country, but also strongly promotes foreign investment. However, he's personally a fundamentalist Born Again Christian with ties to the US's Fellowship, and has far-right views on social issues like homosexuality, abortion, and family values, and in fact was all ready to sign the infamous Anti-Homosexuality Bill until international pressure disuaded him. However, he also supprts a very liberal government-funded AIDS program. His main opponent (runner-up to him in the last three presidential elections and vocal critic of him) Kizza Besigye is center-right on most issues, but his pet issues are pruning corruption and government transparency, issues conservatives and liberals often go on about. As another easier example, Robert Mugabe would be a hardline nationalist. People like Paul Kagame and Jacob Zuma, as two other examples I'm familiar with, are also mixed bags in their platforms like Museveni.

[mahaadoxyz]

Yeah, Africa's bothersome. A lot of the time it's the "We Led Your Revolution" Party against the "The 'We Led Your Revolution' Party Has Become Corrupt" Party, and how do you sort that out? Europe is much neater. (Hmmm, why might that be? Maybe because it's a eurocentric party system. Ah, whatever...) I've made a go at it before for a Global Senate sort of thing, and I suppose I'll make a go of it again.

Also, here's a problem I'm having: for multi-seat nations, there sometimes isn't very much data on where political figures are from. For instance in Mexico, which has 10 seats, I can find data on a handful of national politicians, but when I'm looking to fill in the rest of the seats for one of the parties it's just slim pickin's. Anyone know any ways better than wikipedia to find out who the most prominent candidates from certain areas of various nations less high-profile than the U.S. or France are?

[Patine]

Yeah, Africa's bothersome. A lot of the time it's the "We Led Your Revolution" Party against the "The 'We Led Your Revolution' Party Has Become Corrupt" Party, and how do you sort that out? Europe is much neater. (Hmmm, why might that be? Maybe because it's a eurocentric party system. Ah, whatever...) I've made a go at it before for a Global Senate sort of thing, and I suppose I'll make a go of it again.

Also, here's a problem I'm having: for multi-seat nations, there sometimes isn't very much data on where political figures are from. For instance in Mexico, which has 10 seats, I can find data on a handful of national politicians, but when I'm looking to fill in the rest of the seats for one of the parties it's just slim pickin's. Anyone know any ways better than wikipedia to find out who the most prominent candidates from certain areas of various nations less high-profile than the U.S. or France are?

Check national or local media sites. Though many are in foreign languages, not all are. I learned about all the candidates and details for my Uganda Presidential 2011 scenario (which is almost done, BTW) from Ugandan Newspaper websites and official party websites largely, including where I got most of my portraits and party logos from. There was minimal data for it on Wikipedia. Just a thought.

[mahaadoxyz]

That makes sense; I'll look into it when I get to those countries.

Boy, Europe is so nice to do for this format. There are only a handful of multi-seat nations (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Russia, Spain, the Ukraine, and the UK), and most of those are big enough and prominent enough that information about their politics is readily available. And there's a really strong tendency to have at least one major party that's basically socialist, one that's basically liberal, and one that's basically conservative, plus frequent greens and nationalists. So convenient...