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All-Time Congressional Elections


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In my work on an all-time Presidential election, I decided it would be fun to put together an All-Time Congressional election to go with it. The theory is this: prior to the All-Time Presidential election, i.e. not excluding people who would run for President, an election is held for all 100 Senate seats, 50 governorships, and 435 all-time Congressional districts (using an all-time apportionment and Dave's Redistricting App). Each party nominates the best slate of candidates it can, with the requirement only that candidates can only run for an office they have held (so only Senators can run for Senate, etc.). People who have held multiple of the offices in question can only run for one, and they will run for the office that maximizes their party's chances, so in some situations a strong Whig or Federalist might be better served by running for Congress than Senate if they would finish a distant third in the statewide race. Candidates do not have to be the most prominent, say, Senator that party has had from that state, but rather just the strongest qualified candidates. Thus, while JFK isn't the 2nd-most-prominent Democratic Senator from Massachusetts, he's the strongest qualified Senate candidate from Massachusetts, so he gets in. Note also that each party must put its earlier Senator as its candidate for Race 1 in each State, and its later Senator as its candidate for Race 2. I haven't got the House races done yet, but here's a list of my prospective Senate candidates and their percentages:

AL1: Hugh Black (D) 57%, Jeremiah Denton ® 40%, Israel Pickens (DR) 3%

AL2: William Rufus King (DR) 38%, John Sparkman (D) 32%, Richard Shelby ® 30%

AK1: Ted Stevens ® 58%, Bob Bartlett (D) 42%

AK2: Ernest Gruening (D) 54%, Frank Murkowski ® 46%

AZ1: Barry Goldwater ® 59%, Henry Fountain Ashurst (D) 41%

AZ2: Carl Hayden (D) 61%, John McCain ® 39%

AR1: Joseph T. Robinson (D) 63%, Tim Hutchinson ® 37%

AR2: Dale Bumpers (D) 54%, John Boozman ® 46%

CA1: Alan Cranston (D) 52%, George Perkins ® 48%

CA2: Hiram Johnson ® 54%, Barbara Boxer (D) 46%

CO1: Henry Moore Teller ® 57%, Ed Johnson (D) 43%

CO2: Gary Hart (D) 54%, Gordon Allott ® 46%

CT1: Abe Ribicoff (D) 50%, Orville Platt ® 32%, Oliver Ellsworth (F) 13%, James Lanman (DR) 3%, Gideon Tomlinson (W) 2%

CT2: Lowell Weicker ® 48%, Chris Dodd (D) 35%, Uriah Tracy (F) 7%, Roger S. Baldwin (W) 7%, John Niles (DR) 3%

DE1: Thomas Bayard (D) 46%, John Williams ® 34%, James Bayard (F) 9%, Richard Bayard (W) 7%, Caesar Rodney (DR) 4%

DE2: Joe Biden (D) 52%, William V. Roth ® 34%, Thomas Clayton (W) 8%, Nicholas Van Dyke (F) 6%

FL1: Spessard Holland (D) 53%, Paula Hawkins ® 44%, Jackson Morton (W) 3%

FL2: Bob Graham (D) 55%, Connie Mack III ® 45%

GA1: Walter F. George (D) 64%, Paul Coverdall ® 25%, James Gunn (DR) 6%, John Berrien (W) 3%, George Walton (F) 2%

GA2: Richard Russell (D) 51%, Saxby Chambliss ® 28%, William Crawford (DR) 19%, Robert Toombs (W) 2%

HI1: Spark Matsunaga (D) 55%, Hiram Fong ® 45%

HI2: Daniel Inouye (D) unopposed

ID1: William Borah ® 67%, D. Worth Clark (D) 29%, Henry Heitfield (P) 4%

ID2: Frank Church (D) 57%, James McClure ® 43%

IL1: Stephen Douglas (D) 57%, Shelby Cullom ® 37%, Jesse Thomas (DR) 6%

IL2: Barack Obama (D) 54%, Everett Dirksen ® 42%, Johm McLean (DR) 4%

IN1: Thomas Hendricks (D) 52%, Charles Fairbanks ® 44%, Waller Taylor (DR) 3%, Oliver Smith (W) 1%

IN2: Richard Lugar ® 55%, Birch Bayh (D) 41%, John Tipton (DR) 3%, Albert White (W) 1%

IA1: William B. Allison ® 65%, Guy Gillette (D) 35%

IA2: Tom Harkin (D) 55%, Chuck Grassley (D) 45%

KS1: Charles Curtis ® 65%, William Thompson (D) 29%, William Peffer (P) 6%

KS2: Bob Dole ® 61%, George McGill (D) 33%, William Harris (P) 6%

KY1: Henry Clay (W) 41%, Alben Barkley (D) 34%, John S. Cooper ® 22%, Humphrey Marshall (F) 2%, John Crittenden (A) 1%

KY2: Wendell Ford (D) 48%, Mitch McConnell ® 45%, Archibald Dixon (W) 5%, Martin Hardin (F) 2%

LA1: Allen Ellender (D) 63%, William Kellog ® 35%, James Brown (DR) 3%

LA2: Russell Long (D) 70%, David Vitter ® 27%, Henry Johnson (DR) 3%

ME1: William P. Frye ® 54%, Ed Muskie (D) 41%, John Holmes (DR) 3%, Peleg Sprague (W) 2%

ME2: Margaret Chase Smith ® 51%, George Mitchell (D) 44%, John Chandler (DR) 3%, George Evans (DR) 2%

MD1: John Sarbanes (D) 60%, John Butler ® 34%, Samuel Smith (DR) 2%, John Henry (F) 2%, James Pearce (W) 1%, Anthony Kennedy (A) 1%

MD2: Barbara Mikulski (D) 50%, Charles Mathias ® 41%, Edward Lloyd (DR) 4%, John Howard (F) 3%, Thomas Pratt (W) 2%

MA1: John F. Kennedy (D) 59%, Charles Sumner ® 28%, Caleb Strong (F) 7%, Joseph B. Varnum (DR) 5%, Nathan Silsbee (W) 1%

MA2: Edward Kennedy (D) 40%, Daniel Webster (W) 32%, Henry Cabot Lodge ® 27%, James Lloyd (F) 1%

MI1: Lewis Cass (D) 57%, Zachariah Chandler ® 40%, Augustus Porter (W) 3%

MI2: Arthur Vandenburg ® 49%, Philip Hart (D) 48%, William Woodbridge (W) 3%

MN1: Hubert Humphrey (D) 53%, Knute Nelson ® 39%, Magnus Johnson (P) 8%

MN2: Walter Mondale (D) 49%, Frank Kellogg ® 34%, Henrik Shipshead (P) 17%

MS1: James Eastland (D) 60%, Thad Cochran ® 39%, John Black (W) 1%

MS2: John C. Stennis (D) 56%, Trent Lott ® 43%, John Henderson (W) 1%

MO1: Thomas Hart Benton (DR) 39%, David R. Atchison (D) 33%, John Danforth ® 27%, Henry Geyer (W) 1%

MO2: Harry S. Truman (D) 60%, Kit Bond ® 37%, Lewis Linn (DR) 3%

MT1: Burton Wheeler (D) 64%, Thomas Carter ® 36%

MT2: Mike Mansfield (D) 58%, Conrad Burns ® 42%

NE1: George Norris ® 62%, James Exon (D) 32%, William Allen (P) 6%

NE2: Chuck Hagel ® 55%, Bob Kerrey (D) 45%

NV1: William M. Stewart ® 55%, Key Pittman (D) 45%

NV2: Harry Reid (D) 64%, Paul Laxalt ® 36%

NH1: John Langdon (DR) 38%, Franklin Pierce (D) 23%, George Moses ® 22%, Samuel Livermore (F) 11%, Samuel Bell (W) 6%

NH2: Styles Bridges ® 52%, Thomas McIntyre (D) 32%, John Hale (W) 8%, Levi Woodbury (DR) 6%, Jeremiah Mason (F) 2%

NJ1: Bill Bradley (D) 48%, John Kean ® 44%, William Paterson (F) 4%, William Dayton (W) 3%, John Condit (DR) 1%

NJ2: Frank Lautenberg (D) 52%, Clifford Case ® 40%, John Rutherford (F) 4%, Mahlon Dickerson (DR) 3%, Jacob Miller (W) 1%

NM1: Clinton P. Anderson (D) 65%, Thomas Catron ® 35%

NM2: Jeff Bingaman (D) 54%, Pete Domenici ® 46%

NY1: Jacob Javitz ® 33%, Pat Moynihan (D) 27%, DeWitt Clinton (F) 21%, William Seward (W) 17%, John Smith (DR) 2%

NY2: Hillary Clinton (D) 26%, Alfonse D’Amato ® 23%, Martin Van Buren (DR) 20%, Rufus King (F) 19%, Hamilton Fish (W) 12%

NC1: Jesse Helms ® 55%, Zebulon Vance (D) 23%, William P. Mangum (W) 9%, David Stone (DR) 6%, Marion Butler (P) 6%, Samuel Johnston (F) 1%

NC2: Sam Ervin (D) 53%, Richard Burr ® 37%, James Turner (DR) 7%, George Badger (W) 2%, Benjamin Hawkins (F) 1%

ND1: Wild Bill Langer ® 54%, Quentin Burdick (D) 46%

ND2: Kent Conrad (D) 55%, Milton Young ® 45%

OH1: John Sherman ® 46%, Frank Lausche (D) 43%, Salmon Chase (W) 8%, Jeremiah Morrow (DR) 3%

OH2: Bob Taft ® 54%, John Glenn (D) 39%, Benjamin Wade (W) 5%, Benjamin Ruggles (DR) 2%

OK1: Robert Owen (D) 57%, Henry Bellamon ® 43%

OK2: Elmer Thomas (D) 52%, Jim Inhofe ® 48%

OR1: Charles McNary ® 66%, Wayne Morse (D) 34%

OR2: Mark Hatfield ® 53%, Ron Wyden (D) 47%

PA1: Hugh Scott ® 61%, Joseph Guffey (D) 33%, Albert Gallatin (DR) 4%, William Marks (W) 1%, William Bingham (F) 1%

PA2: Arlen Specter ® 50%, Joseph Clark (D) 36%, James Buchanan (DR) 12%, James Cooper (W) 1%, James Ross (F) 1%

RI1: Henry Bowen Anthony ® 47%, John Pastore (D) 39%, Theodore Foster (F) 7%, James Fenner (DR) 4%, Asher Robbins (W) 3%

RI2: Claiborne Pell (D), Jesse Metcalf ® 29%, Nehemiah Knight (DR) 6%, James Simmons (W) 3%, William Hunter (F) 2%

SC1: John C. Calhoun (D) 46%, Strom Thurmond ® 46%, Pierce Butler (DR) 7%, Ralph Izard (F) 1%

SC2: Fritz Hollings (D) 56%, Lindsay Graham ® 38%, John Gaillard (DR) 5%, Jacob Read (F) 1%

SD1: George McGovern (D) 54%, Peter Norbeck ® 40%, James Kyle (P) 6%

SD2: Tom Daschle (D) 57%, Karl Mundt ® 43%

TN1: Andrew Jackson (D) 55%, Howard Baker ® 33%, Hugh L. White (W) 10%, William Cocke (DR) 2%

TN2: Al Gore (D) 49%, Bill Frist ® 39%, John Bell (W) 8%, Joseph Anderson (DR) 4%

TX1: Lyndon B. Johnson (D) 69%, John Tower ® 31%

TX2: Lloyd Bentsen (D) 55%, Phil Gramm ® 45%

UT1: Reed Smoot ® 61%, William H. King (D) 39%

UT2: Orrin Hatch ® 56%, Frank Moss (D) 44%

VT1: George Edmunds ® 47%, Pat Leahy (D) 40%, Elijah Paine (F) 9%, Samuel Crafts (W) 3%, Moses Robinson (DR) 1%

VT2: George Aiken ® 51%, Bernie Sanders (D) 39%, Isaac Tichenor (F) 6%, Samuel Phelps (W) 2%, Stephen Bradley (DR) 2%

VA1: James Monroe (DR) 42%, Carter Glass (D) 32%, John Warner ® 24%, William Rives (W) 1%, John Waler (F) 1%

VA2: Harry F. Byrd (D) 63%, Geoge Allen ® 29%, John Tyler (DR) 7%, William Archer (W) 1%

WA1: Warren Magnuson (D) 62%, Wesley Jones ® 34%, George Turner (P) 4%

WA2: Scoop Jackson (D) 57%, Slade Gorton ® 43%

WV1: Jennings Randolph (D) 66%, Stephen Elkins ® 34%

WV2: Robert Byrd (D) 72%, Henry Hatfield ® 28%

WI1: Robert La Follette ® 51%, William Proxmire (D) 49%

WI2: Russ Feingold (D) 45%, Joseph McCarthy ® 32%, Robert La Follette, Jr. (P) 23%

WY1: Francis Warren ® 73%, Lester Hunt (D) 27%

WY2: Alan Simpson ® 57%, Joseph Maloney (D) 43%

If anyone has suggested changes, either as to candidates or as to percentages, I welcome them. Note that some candidate might be missing because I think they're a better gubernatorial candidate.

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The governor's races, I think, it might be better to do as fifty individualized state-by-state races using the P4E+P engine, especially since that allows primaries. If I were doing them as a Congress Forever-style scenario, I would set them up like this:

Alabama: George Wallace (D) 67%, Guy Hunt ® 30%, William Bib (DR) 3%

Alaska: Wally Hickel (I) 36%, Jay Hammond ® 33%, William Egan (D) 31%

Arizona: Bruce Babbit (D) 54%, Paul Fannin ® 46%

Arkansas: Bill Clinton (D) 64%, Mike Huckabee ® 36%

California: Ronald Reagan ® 51%, Jerry Brown (D) 44%, Neely Johnson (A) 5%

Colorado: Bill Owens ® 48%, Roy Romer (D) 46%, Davis Waite (P) 6%

Connecticut: Samuel Huntington (F) 25%, Jodi Rell ® 23%, Oliver Wolcott, Jr. (DR) 22%, John Dempsey (D) 19%, William Ellsworth (W) 9%, William Minor (A) 2%

Delaware: Joshua Clayton (F) 37%, Caleb Boggs ® 29%, Ruth Minner (D) 27%, Joseph Haslet (DR) 4%, William Cooper (W) 2%, Peter Causey (A) 1%

Florida: Jeb Bush ® 52%, Lawton Chiles (D) 45%, Thomas Brown (W) 3%

Georgia: Jimmy Carter (D) 54%, Sonny Perdue ® 38%, George Crawford (W) 8%

Hawaii: George Ariyoshi (D) 57%, Linda Lingle ® 43%

Idaho: Dirk Kempthorne ® 67%, Cecil Andrus (D) 27%, Frank Steuenberg (P) 6%

Illinois: Adlai Stevenson (D) 49%, Jim Thompson ® 40%, Ninian Edwards (DR) 7%, Joseph Duncan (W) 4%

Indiana: Mitch Daniels ® 48%, Evan Bayh (D) 47%, Jonathan Jennings (DR) 4%, Noah Noble (W) 1%

Iowa: Terry Branstad ® 57%, Tom Vilsack (D) 39%, James Grimes (W) 4%

Kansas: Alf Landon ® 52%, Kathleen Sebelius (D) 41%, Lorenzo Lewelling (P) 7%

Kentucky: Happy Chandler (D) 49%, William Bradley ® 33%, James Morehead (W) 9%, Isaac Shelby (DR) 6%, Charles Morehead (A) 3%

Louisiana: Huey Long (D) 65%, Mike Foster ® 30%, William Claiborne (DR) 4%, Andre Roman (W) 1%

Maine: Hannibal Hamlin ® 49%, John Baldacci (D) 40%, Albion Parris (DR) 7%, Edward Kent (W) 4

Maryland: Marvin Mandel (D) 56%, Theodore McKeldin ® 39%, Robert Wright (DR) 2%, Daniel Martin (W) 1%, Levin Windler (F) 1%, Thomas Hicks (A) 1%

Massachusetts: Michael Dukakis (D) 32%, Calvin Coolidge ® 31%, Samuel Adams (DR) 26%, John Davis (W) 5%, John Brooks (F) 5%, Henry Gardner (A) 1%

Michigan: Mennen Williams (D) 49%, William Milliken ® 47%, Wright Gordon (W) 4%

Minnesota: Harold Stassen ® 50%, Rudy Perpich (D) 41%, Floyd Olsen (P) 9%

Mississippi: John M. Stone (D) 53%, Haley Barbour ® 46%, John Quitman (W) 1%

Missouri: Mel Carnahan (D) 51%, John Ashcroft ® 47%, Alexander McNair (DR) 2%

Montana: John Erickson (D) 54%, Joseph Dixon (D) 46%

Nebraska: Mike Johanns ® 47%, Ben Nelson (D) 44%, Silas Holcombe (P) 9%

Nevada: Kenny Guinn ® 47%, Richard Bryan (D) 46%, Denver Dickerson (P) 7%

New Hampshire: John Gilman (F) 28%, Judd Gregg ® 24%, Josiah Bartlett (DR) 22%, Jeanne Shaheen (D) 22%, Anthony Colby (W) 3%, Ralph Metcalf (A) 1%

New Jersey: Woodrow Wilson (D) 53%, Thomas Kean ® 40%, William Livingston (F) 4%, John Lambert (DR) 2%, Samuel Southard (W) 1%

New Mexico: Bruce King (D) 51%, Edwin Mechem ® 49%

New York: Franklin Roosevelt (D) 37%, Theodore Roosevelt ® 33%, George Clinton (DR) 17%, John Jay (F) 12%, Myron Clark (W) 1%

North Carolina: Terry Sanford (D) 55%, James Martin ® 36%, Jesse Franklin (DR) 7%, William Graham (W) 1%, Benjamin Williams (F) 1%

North Dakota: John Hoeven ® 64%, William Guy (D) 28%, Eli Shortridge (P) 8%

Ohio: William McKinley ® 50%, James Cox (D) 37%, Thomas Worthington (DR) 7%, Thomas Corwin (W) 5%, Allen Trimble (F) 1%

Oklahoma: Frank Keating ® 58%, David Boren (D) 42%

Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) 55%, Victor Atiyeh ® 45%

Pennsylvania: Gifford Pinchot ® 36%, Bob Casey (D) 34%, Thomas McKean (DR) 28%, William Johnston (W) 2%

Rhode Island: Theodore F. Green (D) 52%, John Chafee ® 39%, Arthur Fenner (DR) 3%, William Jones (F) 3%, Lemuel Arnold (W) 2%, Charles Jackson (A) 1%

South Carolina: Charles Pinckney (DR) 32%, Richard Riley (D) 26%, Carroll Campbell ® 23%, Thomas Pinckney (F) 19%

South Dakota: Bill Janklow ® 52%, Dick Kneip (D) 40%, Andrew Lee (P) 8%

Tennessee: James Polk (D) 53%, Lamar Alexander ® 39%, William Campbell (W) 3%, John Sevier (DR) 3%, John Buchanan (P) 2%

Texas: Sam Houston (A) 38%, George W. Bush ® 31%, John Connally (D) 31%

Utah: Mike Leavitt ® 72%, George Dern (D) 28%

Vermont: Thomas Chittenden (F) 36%, Howard Dean (D) 29%, Redfield Proctor ® 26%, Jonas Galusha (DR) 6%, Silas Jennison (W) 3%

Virginia: Thomas Jefferson (DR) 45%, Mark Warner (D) 29%, Mills Godwin ® 22%, Henry Lee (F) 3%, Littleton Tazewell (W) 1%

Washington: Gary Locke (D) 56%, Daniel Evans ® 41%, John Rogers (P) 3%

West Virginia: Jay Rockefeller (D) 59%, Arch Moore ® 41%

Wisconsin: Gaylord Nelson (D) 49%, Tommy Thompson ® 35%, Philip La Follette (P) 15%, Leonard Farwell (W) 1%

Wyoming: Stanley Hathaway ® 54%, Edgar Herschler (D) 46%

Note as to parties:

D = Democratic

R = Republican

W = Whig

DR = Democratic-Republican

F = Federalist

A = American (Know-Nothing)

P = Populist

I = Independent

I have also let people run under any party banner they've ever taken, especially if it lets them run for a higher office (like Martin Van Buren, blocked by FDR for governor, running as a DR for Senator).

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Yes, all the Presidents would run for President; that's why the theory of this election is that it is prior to the All-Time Presidential Election. That way all of the Presidents run for their lower offices, making the whole thing more interesting/exciting. Obviously, that's a choice on my part, and I could make the other choice, but I think I like this way better.

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Here are some definite candidates in my opinion for the House races (I didn't include district, just party and state):

William Yancey (Democrat, Alabama)

Jeff Flake (Republican, Arizona)

Duncan Hunter (Republican, California)

Michael Castle (Republican, Delaware)

Alan Grayson, Kendrick Meeks, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (Democrat, Florida)

Connie Mack IV and Joe Scarborough (Republican, Florida)

Jesse Jackson, Jr. (Democrat, Illinois)

Abraham Lincoln (Republican, Illinois)

Mike Pence (Republican, Indiana)

James Weaver (Populist/Progressive, Iowa)

Jefferson Davis (Democrat, Mississippi)

Dean Heller (Republican, Nevada)

Alexander Hamilton (Federalist, New York)

Dennis Kucinich (Democrat, Ohio)

Albert Gallatin (Democratic-Republican, Pennsylvania)

Stephanie Harseth Sandlin (Democrat, South Dakota)

George H.W. Bush and Ron Paul (Republican, Texas)

Jay Inslee (Democrat, Washington)

Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Republican, Washington)

George Schneider (Populist/Progressive, Wisconsin)

Of course, you will need a lot more, but those are some suggestions

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Yancey's from a 47% black district in Alabama; I don't think a Fire-Eater makes a great nominee there, and J. Lister Hill seems a stronger candidate anyway.

Jeff Flake's from the Phoenix district, where he faces stiff competition from John Jacob Rhodes and John Kyl (I've given it to Rhodes currently).

Duncan Hunter I have.

Michael Castle I have, as the Republican nominee to Delaware's only seat.

Grayson, Meek, and Wasserman-Schultz are too recent and short-termed, and there are a lot of older-time Florida Congressmen more prominent from their districts. (Bill Nelson, Claude Pepper, and George Smathers, respectively, though I can see an argument for Wasserman Schultz over Smathers.)

Scarborough I have, Connie Mack IV is in competition with Porter Goss, and I've currently given it to Goss but I can see the other argument, too.

I haven't gotten to Illinois yet, but Jackson, Jr. is definitely going to be under consideration. And Lincoln's a definite.

Likewise haven't gotten to Indiana yet, and I will definitely consider Mike Pence but I don't know what his competition will be like.

James Weaver is in.

Jefferson Davis is in competition from John Sharp Williams, and is also in a 43% black district. Similar arguments as to Yancey. I can see the argument the other way a bit more, though.

Dean Heller's only been there for a few years; Barbara Vucanovich is my current nominee for Nevada's at-large.

Hamilton was never a Congressman, was he? I'm not sure he ever held elective office.

Haven't gotten to Ohio yet, but I love Kucinich and I'll definitely be keeping him in mind.

Albert Gallatin is one of my Senate nominees for the D-R's in Pennsylvania.

Herseth-Sandlin has competition from Tim Johnson, who was both in the House longer than she and is a Senator.

I haven't done Texas yet, but I'm pretty sure that both G.H.W. Bush and Ron Paul will be there, unless they're from the same town or something.

I had given what I think is the relevant district to Adam Smith over Jay Inslee, but I think I like Inslee better now that you mention him.

Cathy McMorris Rodgers and Doc Hastings, competing for the same nomination, have almost identical profiles; I'll give it to Rodgers on second thought, both because I think she's a little more high-ranking and because I have a slight ceteris paribus preference for women.

I haven't gotten to Wisconsin yet, but there's precious little competition for Populist nominations so I'd imagine Schneider will get in.

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I guess it kind of eluded me in the whole haze of the space-time continuum being shreaded you've created that Black voters would be problematic for Yancey and Davis' aspirations, but it makes sense.

As for Hamilton, I had long thought he was the Speaker when he influenced the House to choose Jefferson over Burr in 1800, but now checking the roster of members, I see he's not on it. It appears he just influenced the House from his prestige and cabinet role. Also, what also confused me is that Hamilton served on the Second Continental Congress, but that doesn't count for this scenario's purposes.

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