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normanwisdomii

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2015

Con: 42 (ringing endorsements of Cameron from the Murdoch Empire)

Lab: 41 (beneficiary from Liberal collapse, surge in support in the cut devastated north)

Lib: 12 (the obvious reasons)

Oth: 5 (People will realise how important the election is, so will refrain from wasting their votes)

Conservative Majority of 60 (due to boundary changes in their favour)

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The problem was that the Lib Dems were a voters parking lot since a long time ago.

As a fact, I think that only a small hardcore base of about 10% remains. The rest will go elsewhere and it will depends by riding. I think that some Lib Dems could win by their persona (Hughes, Campbell, Kennedy), but the rest of city ridings will go Labour and the Tories will have back their pre-1997 seats. The Scottish Highlands will be the joker in all this...they could go Labour, SNP or even Tory in some areas. Even in Wales, there is some seats between the Lib Dems-Plaid Cymru and the Tories.

And again, my impression about the next election is that it will be like 1970.

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All of you are overlooking the 'others'. There are seats in Scotland, Wales and the Six Counties which mean that 'others' will certainly be more than any of you are suggesting. :)

The reason I think the nationalists will perform badly is that Plaid have quite weak leadership and are poorly funded and the SNP are likely to be beaten in the Scots Parliament next year and under Salmond should go on to a large defeat in 2015. With what has happened to Ireland recently I don't think separatism will have quite the same appeal any more. The Northern Irish population is only a tiny percentage of Britain and turnout is low there. If Farage and Griffin have the audacity to hold on to leadership of their respective parties they too will be thrashed.

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The reason I think the nationalists will perform badly is that Plaid have quite weak leadership and are poorly funded and the SNP are likely to be beaten in the Scots Parliament next year and under Salmond should go on to a large defeat in 2015. With what has happened to Ireland recently I don't think separatism will have quite the same appeal any more. The Northern Irish population is only a tiny percentage of Britain and turnout is low there. If Farage and Griffin have the audacity to hold on to leadership of their respective parties they too will be thrashed.

The way I see it, both Plaid and the SNP are not ''outsiders'' anymore. As a fact, the SNP administration were not even in a very strong position in 2007.

BTW, do somebody is interested to do a Scotland or Wales 2011 scenario?

For Wales, I think that the UKIP will have a good chance to enter in the assembly.

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