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Starting percentages in primaries


ScottM
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I'm working on a 2012 scenario for P4E+P. I don't have any problem setting the starting percentages for the general. That's easy enough by looking at historical trends. The primaries are another issues entirely.

Basically what I'm asking is if anyone has any advice to offer when it comes to determining what candidates are stronger in what States/regions and how to balance it all.

Thanks

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The best way to determine canidates percentages are as follows

1.Moderate Republicans have high percentages in the north and the far west and swing states

Conservative Republicans South and midwest

2.Liberal Democrats North far west, some parts of the midwest

Moderate Democrats swing states mid west and south\

Good luck

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I understand all of that. Reviewing my original post, I wasn't very clear about what I was asking. Let me try again.

It's not so much what determining what kind of candidate does well in each State/region, it's determining which individual candidates do well in each location. For example, how much of a role does regionalism play? For instance, how much of a bonus does a southern candidate receive in the south? Also, how would you suggest going about determining the overall strength of particular candidates? Obviously Huckabee, Palin, and Romney are probably considered the strongest primary candidates for the GOP in 2012, but how would you go about determining the strength of people like Barbour, Gingrich, Pawlenty, or Thune? (Note: I'm not so much asking for opinions of the strength of those particular candidates themselves, just a general idea of how you might figure such things)

Thanks again

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Some websites allow you to see state-by-state polling for the 2012 GOP.

Try and take that and go from there, if you get drastically different results form the same general time, probably because there was a new candidate added or subtracted from the mix.

Good Luck

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I think moderate is on the right track, but the Tea Party types have shown to be very strong in the north this year (O'Donnell, Paladino, Maine, New Hampshire, to name a few.

Some websites allow you to see state-by-state polling for the 2012 GOP.

Try and take that and go from there, if you get drastically different results form the same general time, probably because there was a new candidate added or subtracted from the mix.

Good Luck

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