NEW 2012 US Presidential Election

[Actinguy]

Hi all! I'm working on making what I hope is the most realistic simulation of the upcoming 2012 US Presidential election. My plan right now is to have Obama, an independent for spacebarring, and 30 republicans. It will include ALL of the republicans commonly thought to be running (default on), plus a few random senators and such that aren't even being mentioned, because hey, you never know (default off).

I plan to tweak the numbers so that...at least at the start of the game...anybody could theoretically win (except the independant). Some will be easier than others, but anything can happen. I will not be creating any scripted events that force things one way or the other.

Anyhow, my main thing I need help with right now is issues. Realistically, what do you think the main issues of the 2012 election will be? Please include options for each issue.

Thanks so much!

EDIT: Not that it significantly impacts the issues, but the 2012 storyline will be based on my most recent spacebar of Congress 2010. Democrats still control house and senate, although they lost significant seats, including Harry Reid's. John Kerry is the new Senate Majority Leader. Nancy Pelosi is still speaker.

[Red Dog Democrat]

Harry Reid won't lose his seat, IDC if it's from a C4E spacebar or not.

[Actinguy]

Harry Reid won't lose his seat, IDC if it's from a C4E spacebar or not.

No need to get upset, it's just a game. Any thoughts on the issues?

[mz452]

I too agree that you should still have Reid in the Senate. Had someone other than Angle won the primary then he would be a goner, however, she won and now he will win.

[Actinguy]

Alright, forget Reid. Now can anyone recommend issues? Thanks!

[mahaadoxyz]

In my 2012 scenario attempts, I've usually used something similar to the 2008 set of issues but changed a few of the low-profile ones (like "business taxes") to things like Financial Regulation or Health Care Reform or something. That, plus fixing up the descriptions for things like Health Care or Energy to reflect more of the details of the Obama-era policy discussions (cap-&-trade, public option, individual mandate, etc.).

[Actinguy]

In my 2012 scenario attempts, I've usually used something similar to the 2008 set of issues but changed a few of the low-profile ones (like "business taxes") to things like Financial Regulation or Health Care Reform or something. That, plus fixing up the descriptions for things like Health Care or Energy to reflect more of the details of the Obama-era policy discussions (cap-&-trade, public option, individual mandate, etc.).

Great ideas, thanks!

[gopprogressive]

I think that Obama should face a primary challenge from the left. Some possibilities could be Dennis Kucinich and Alan Grayson. Also include Hillary Clinton for a possibility if Obama decides not to run.

[Patine]

BTW, I must know, whose the Independent?

[Red Dog Democrat]

How bout Russ Feingold as a primary challenge? He might lose his seat this year and would have nothing to lose.

[Actinguy]

I thought about giving Obama a challenge in the primaries...but honestly, I want this to be based as realistically as possible, and I just can't see a SERIOUS challenge coming. Dennis Kucinich actually defeating Obama? There's just no way. Hilary Clinton is way more realistic of course, but she's just not going to run. In the scenario I'm creating, Russ Feingold actually did win re-election.

If somebody can point me to somebody who honestly has a 50-50 shot at Obama in the primaries, AND might actually run, then I'll definitely put them in!

Ha...maybe a fun compromise would be a deposed Harry Reid taking on Obama? Hehe...just kidding.

Not sure on the independant. I'm just putting them in for space bar games, but who do you have in mind?

[Red Dog Democrat]

Hillary isn't realistic at all, all this speculation is ridiculous. Not only will she not run for President again, I don't see her lasting 8 years as SOS.

[MrPrez9051]

Good to see that somebody is making a more realistic scenario. A few things:

I've tweaked a scenario for 2012 (it still isn't all that good though), and I added some challengers for Obama in the primaries, though they are all auto off. I have Hillary, Evan Bayh (presenting himself as the more appealing candidate to moderates), Mark Warner, and of course Dennis Kucinich just for fun. Honestly I don't see anyone challenging Obama in a few years, but this is just for fun. Feingold would make a great challenger in the scenario to represent the more liberal anti-war wing of the party.

For the Republicans, I can only see just a few candidates that would run. I don't know who all you were thinking of but I can see Romney, Huckabee, Palin, Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Rick Santorum, John Thune, and Ron Paul. I would put Daniels, Thune, and Paul auto off.

You mentioned that you had John Kerry as Senate Majority Leader. If Reid should lose, the two more likely choices would be either Dick Durbin or Chuck Schumer. Kerry would have to give up chairing Foreign Relations, which he wouldn't want to do.

For issues, I would definitely make Government Spending a bigger issue than it was in the 2008 scenario. Immigration maybe, the question being is it still such a hot button issue as it is today. Afghanistan should probably get it's own issue, like Iraq and Iran got previously.

Well that's my first run through of ideas. Hope it helps!

[gopprogressive]

Hey I was wondering if you guys could help me out with issue positions with my USL scenario.

[Actinguy]

Thanks for the reply! You are starting to convince me that Russ Feingold is a possibility after all. He'd have a struggle, but it's possible.

I have all the Republicans you mentioned, except for Ron Paul, because there's just no way he'd ever win the republican nomination. With the exception of the space bar independent, I don't want any "dead space". I want all of the candidates to at least have a chance in the real world. I have a few additional republicans, but I don't have the names in front of me.

Funny you should mention Dick Durbin, I had decided just last night to make him the new majority leader. Great minds, and what not. ;c)

[mahaadoxyz]

Feingold is the Kucinich of the Senate; he's just about the only Senator who routinely makes protest votes from the left on significant legislation (although I don't think he does it very much on cloture votes, and even Kucinich hasn't been a deciding vote against any Obama agenda items yet).

[Actinguy]

Progess Report: Completed a "very" rough draft with the basic shell and 1/4 of the candidates done. Huckabee, Pawlenty, Gingrich, Thune, Romney, Pence, and Jindal vs Obama. Decided to spacebar a game just to make sure everything is working so far, as this is my first creation.

Interesting primaries, with Huckabee taking Iowa, South Carolina, and Nevada...but Pawlenty getting New Hampshire. March is a month full of Proportional Voting (multiple candidates can earn delegates from a single state), which catapulted Gingrich to second place, nipping on Huckabee's heels. By the end of March, Pence had endorsed Gingrich while Romney had simply dropped out, promising to endorse the eventual nominee. April's states give their full electorate to the majority winner. Huckabee trucked on, but Pawlenty gathered quite a few votes as well. As the final states nominated on April 28th, Pawlenty endorsed Huckabee while Thune endorsed Gingrich. In the end, Huckabee had more than enough votes and chose George Pataki as his northerner vice president.

However...Obama, running unopposed in his party, also chose to run without a running mate. Not sure why yet, although I'm thinking maybe I somehow screwed up the conventions. Checking now.

The game ultimatly crashed on October 4th (I'm thinking maybe there was a VP debate that day, and only one VP?). I'm going to check out the convention issue, and significantly weaken the democratic party as they steamrolled Huckabee...then, assuming that the game comes out a little closer, I'll start adding in more candidates.

Once all of the candidates are finished and the game feels fairly balanced, I'll put it up here for testing. In between fixing any problems they discover, I'll focus on really detailing the endorsements, then creating a butt-load of VP possibilities, and then re-working the issues.

EDIT: Found the error. Had the general election begining Sep 5th, but the Democratic Convention didn't end until Sep 6th. Fixed.

EDIT 2: Another update: The game is 100% operational, I'm just adding candidates right now. The republican primaries are highly competitive...so far, I've seen Huckabee, Gingrich, and Pawlenty win (Pawlenty leapt from 3rd place at the end by racking up endorsements). However, Obama is devastating, even when competing against Hilary Clinton. The problem, I think, is that he's ranked 100 electability. Any idea how I change that?

[bawlexus91]

I've been waiting/hoping someone would do an awesome, FAIR job on the 2012 election. This one sounds promising, except one thing.

1) I've always thought it would be more realistic to create an interesting election narrative with the scenario. The way to do that would be through each day's headlines. So instead of the old, boring, "Gore stumps in NH" type of stuff, more intriguing headlines would start popping up (ex: "Israeli ground invasion of Iran begins!", or " Palin's approval rating drops to 42%", etc.) It would require a lot of attention, time, and detail, but would make for an awesome scenario. If it is something you have any interest in, let me know, since I've tweaked some of my existing scenarios like this. I did this with a 2004 scenario, adding in real life events like "Rather apologizes for leaked memos" and "Kerry: 'We need to wage a smarter, safer war on terror!'"

Otherwise, I'm looking forward to playing!

[matvail2002]

Could Gary Johnson be a good candidate for the GOP?

[Actinguy]

Could Gary Johnson be a good candidate for the GOP?

I'm still doing research, although he is on my short list. So far, all I know about his is that he's in favor of legalizing marijuana...and as a Republican, that makes him as likely as Ron Paul in my book, but he does have a following, so I am considering it.

Regarding news stories, I'm torn. I love the concept...but I don't want to personally mandate what happens between now and 2012. I want it to be chance. The technology that Theoryspark has provided me (or, rather, charged me for) is rather limiting in some ways, and this is one of them. But it IS something that I would like to do, once the rest of my objectives are met. Thanks for the input!

[MrPrez9051]

After giving it some more thought, I came up with this list of suggested issues:

Abortion Gun Control

Afghanistan Health Care

Bailouts Homeland Security

Education Immigration

Energy Military Funding

Environment Personal Tax

Financial Reform Same Sex Marriage

Free Trade Social Security

Government Spending War on Terror

Thoughts?

[Actinguy]

After giving it some more thought, I came up with this list of suggested issues:

Abortion Gun Control

Afghanistan Health Care

Bailouts Homeland Security

Education Immigration

Energy Military Funding

Environment Personal Tax

Financial Reform Same Sex Marriage

Free Trade Social Security

Government Spending War on Terror

Thoughts?

Looks good,thanks! That's about the same line I was thinking, but I hadn't actually typed it out yet, so, hey, one less thing. ;c) Thanks again!

[mahaadoxyz]

Out of curiosity, how would the "Bailouts" issue be framed?

Also, the gay marriage issue might become increasingly federal/settled/constitutional between now and 2012. Don't know how you'd want to play it, but it's very possible that the recent Prop 8 decision will go to the Supreme Court before that election, and if they uphold the ruling it'll probably make gay marriage the law of the land everywhere, which might change the dynamic of that issue rather considerably.

[Actinguy]

Out of curiosity, how would the "Bailouts" issue be framed?

Also, the gay marriage issue might become increasingly federal/settled/constitutional between now and 2012. Don't know how you'd want to play it, but it's very possible that the recent Prop 8 decision will go to the Supreme Court before that election, and if they uphold the ruling it'll probably make gay marriage the law of the land everywhere, which might change the dynamic of that issue rather considerably.

I like the gay marriage issue idea. I think that will definitely be in!

Haven't been able to really work on this in the past couple days, because I'm in the middle of moving to a new place. But as soon as I'm unpacked, I'll be back to it full time!

[mjhundem]

The Gay Marriage issue should definitely be in.

I don't think there are enough tax issues. Should be one more tax issue, although I don't have a suggestion of which other issue to replace.

Bailouts should be more of a 'bailouts/stimulus' issue. (unless you have that falling under government spending)

Reid won't hold his Senate seat, IMO. I think Democrats will hang onto Senate by a seat or two, but lose the house significantly.

GOP Candidates should include:

Mitt Romney

Sarah Palin

Mike Huckabee

General David Petraeus (auto off)

Owen Daniels (auto off)

Tim Pawlenty

John Thune

Haley Barbour (auto off)

Newt Gingrich (auto off)

Rudy Giuiliani (auto off)

Ron Paul

VP Candidates should include:

Chris Christie

Mike Pence

Michele Bachmann

Jeb Bush

Charlie Crist

Rick Santorum

Eric Cantor

(plus all of the Prez candidates above)

I'd be willing to help, if needed.