Redone UK scenarios

[gopprogressive]

Hey all,

I'm redoing various UK general elections scenarios for official submission to 80soft. Here is the full list which I will be working on:

United Kingdom - 2005 (official one combined with Gaffney's version)

United Kingdom - 2010 (hopefully to be official)

United Kingdom - 1997 (Fletcher Christian's old scenario)

United Kingdom - 1992 (Gaffney)

United Kingdom - 1987 (Treasurer)

United Kingdom - 1983 (Gaffney)

United Kingdom - 1979 (Gaffney)

United Kingdom - 1910 January (Graem Peters)

New Britannia - 2009

I'll post my redone scenario info below.

[gopprogressive]

Here is what I have for the revised issues for 2005:

I need the approximate (or perceived/theoretical if the party had no official position on them) for the following parties: Green, UKIP, BNP, SNP, PC, UUP, DUP, SF, SDLP, Respect, and Independent. Also- the UUP needs to be vulnerable on an issue, as does the SDLP (since both were creamed in the official election). What issues should they be?

@issues

Asylum and Immigration

Ban on Fox Hunting

Devolved Powers

Education

Environment

European Constitution

Home Defence

Identity Cards

Iraq War

Licensing Laws

Marijuana

National Health Service

N.I. Peace Process

Pensions

Smoking In Public

Tax and Spend

Terrorism

US Relations

@end

@issue position descriptions

// left to right, 1 - 5

//Asylum + Immigration

Open-door immigration for all.

Make immigration easier. More rights to asylum seekers.

No change to numbers allowed into the UK. Increase enforcement.

Impose more limits on immigration. Admit fewer asylum seekers.

Non-white immigration is bad for Britain. Increase deportations.

@

//Ban on Fox Hunting

Extend ban to cover all hunting.

Fox hunting is a cruel, unnecessary sport.

Gradually phase out fox hunting, assist hunt-keepers in transition.

Look at reversing the law banning fox hunting.

The ban is an attack on our heritage! Immediately reverse it.

@

//Devolved Powers

Full independence to Scotland and Wales.

Increase devolved powers for Assemblies and local governments.

Devolution is working. No change to responsibilities

Devolution needs to be cut back. More powers for English MPs.

Devolution is a threat to the Union, no Scottish and Welsh powers.

@

//Education

Radical education reforms so family wealth is not an advantage.

Invest in state schools. Higher teacher pay and smaller classes.

Introduce new specialist schools and city academies.

Give schools more powers to discipline and expel disruptive students.

Greatly increase discipline and set up a school vouchers scheme.

@

//Environment

Environmental protection is the number one priority. No unecological policies.

Begin a "Green tax shift" to discourage emissions and pollution.

Encourage recycling, carbon emission cuts and clean transport.

Support a better environment, but not at a cost to British industry.

Climate Change is a hoax. There's no threat to our environment.

@

//European Constituion

Europe should be supported as a bulwark against US imperialism.

Support the European Constitution. No need for a referendum.

Referendum on the constitution, but fight for op-outs.

The European constitution is a threat to British sovereignty.

The UK should withdraw from the European Union.

@

//Home Defence

Defend the rights of alleged criminals more strongly against homeowners.

Rhetoric about intruders and defence only encourages violence.

Homeowners already have enough leeway to defend themselves.

Legalise forceful defence against intruders to one's home.

Legalise all actions against intruders to one's home.

@

//Identity Cards

ID cards are a waste of money and an attack on our liberties.

ID cards will not be effective in fighting terrorism.

Introduce voluntary ID cards to make life easier.

Introduce compulsory biometric ID cards.

Introduce biometric ID cards and a DNA database to stop crime.

@

//Iraq War

The Iraq War was illegal. Put Blair and Bush on trial for war crimes!

The Iraq War was wrong. Support full withdrawal and an exit plan.

The war was a mistake, but we can't abandon Iraq to civil war.

The Iraq war was the right thing to do. Saddam Hussein was a threat.

We should dispatch more troops to Iraq to ensure victory.

@

//Licensing Laws

We have a right to drink as much as we like. No restrictions on licences.

Award some 24-hour drinking licences, make bars pay for policing.

Extend opening hours to the Continental norm, make bars pay for policing.

The present licensing laws reduce excessive drinking.

Tighten licensing laws. Raise the legal drinking age to 21.

@

//Marijuana

Full legalisation of cannabis for personal and medicinal use.

Full decriminalisation of possession, legalize medicinal use.

Cannabis is fine at Class C. Try to reduce harmful drug abuse.

Return cannabis to the Class B list. Reduce tolerance of drug use.

Make cannabis a Class A drug. Declare a War on Drugs.

@

//National Health Service

Dramatically increase funding. End all private sector interference.

Increase funding, scrap performance targets and private initiatives.

Introduce more choice, combined with targets for hospitals to meet.

Internal markets and private finance would make the NHS work better.

Completely privatise the NHS and move to an American model.

@

//N.I. Peace Process

Northern Ireland should unite with the Republic of Ireland.

Sinn Féin must remain in the Northern Irish government for long-term peace.

We support the current direction of negotiations.

The government has betrayed Unionists by negotiating with Sinn Féin.

No negotiations with Sinn Féin; return Northern Ireland to majority rule.

@

//Pensions

Citizens pension for all, rises in line with average earnings.

Provide help to the poorest pensioners. Increase basic provision.

Restore pensions-earnings link. Cut council tax, increase fuel allowance.

Support private pensions and reduce reliance on future generations.

Scrap the state pension, provide tax breaks for private schemes.

@

//Smoking in Public

Ban smoking everywhere outside of the home.

Ban smoking in all enclosed spaces, including bars.

Ban smoking in certain critical places.

No to banning smoking in pubs and bars.

Permit smoking anywhere and everywhere.

@

//Tax and Spend

Return to the pre-Thatcher income tax rates to pay for social programmes.

Top income tax rate of 50%, increase spending on social services.

Increase some indirect taxes, not direct ones, to pay for better services.

Reduce taxation across the board. Reduce government waste.

Move to a flat income tax. Slash spending on welfare programs.

@

//Terrorism

Terrorism is legitimate resistance against imperialism.

Restore due process rights for terror suspects. Defend liberties.

Hold terror suspects for 30-day period. Reach out to moderate Musilms.

Increasing holding period to 90 days. More surveillance powers.

Terror suspects are scum and should be executed.

@

//US Relations

There is no terrorist threat. The US is a threat to world peace.

Pre-emptive military action is wrong. Stand up to the US more often.

We should respond to threats to the UK quickly and efficiently.

We should give our full support to American endeavours.

We should take the lead in the War on Terror.

@

@end

[EGaffney]

Good, I hope that we can make these good enough for submission. I never submitted mine, because I consider them to be in continuous development. Even this week, I learned something new about how to control population per riding. (Thank you, Antigua and Barbuda 2009 scenario.)

I won't bother giving you detailed issue positions, because you can just copy and paste the ones from my 2005 scenario, in most cases.

The best way to hurt the UUP and the SDLP by using issues would be to split Northern Ireland into two sub-divisions, one Catholic and one Protestant. Set SW Northern Ireland and SF to 1 on Peace Process, set NE Northern Ireland and DUP to 5 on Peace Process, and set UUP, SDLP and Alliance to 3, as well as pretty much every other party.

The very best way to hurt them full stop would be to use 2005 numbers; it's difficult for the UUP to overturn those 2005 DUP majorities. But I don't know if you subscribe to the philosophy that you start with a ridings_data file that reflects previous election results.

[gopprogressive]

Good, I hope that we can make these good enough for submission. I never submitted mine, because I consider them to be in continuous development. Even this week, I learned something new about how to control population per riding. (Thank you, Antigua and Barbuda 2009 scenario.)

I won't bother giving you detailed issue positions, because you can just copy and paste the ones from my 2005 scenario, in most cases.

The best way to hurt the UUP and the SDLP by using issues would be to split Northern Ireland into two sub-divisions, one Catholic and one Protestant. Set SW Northern Ireland and SF to 1 on Peace Process, set NE Northern Ireland and DUP to 5 on Peace Process, and set UUP, SDLP and Alliance to 3, as well as pretty much every other party.

The very best way to hurt them full stop would be to use 2005 numbers; it's difficult for the UUP to overturn those 2005 DUP majorities. But I don't know if you subscribe to the philosophy that you start with a ridings_data file that reflects previous election results.

I think I'll use your map to replace the official map, which probably does have too few regions anyway.

Also- I've put the Tories as being Centrist on the Iraq War, ID Cards, Terrorism, and US Relations (as they either distanced themselves from Blair & Bush, or voted against Labour's government legislation).

I guess the major vulnerabilities for each major party is: Iraq War & US Relations(Labour), Fox Hunting Ban & NHS (Tories), Europe & Terrorism (Lib-Dems). Anything for the others?

Also- what should the SNP, PC and the far-left parties position be on the European Constitution (I put the Greens as C)?

[EGaffney]

The problem I see right away is that the Tories should not be perceived as closer to the centre ground than Labour. 2005 was still their right-wing phase; they actually had to put up posters saying their immigration policy was "not racist", as well as the most ominous campaign slogan of the 21st century, "Are you thinking what we're thinking?". That slogan was based on the fact that people actually agreed with some of their policies and "thinking", but perceived them as extreme once they were informed that the Tories were in favour!

Conservatives should be wherever Blair is on Iraq, Terrorism and US Relations. They supported the ID card scheme, except in one vote, so they should be one to the left of Blair on ID Cards. None of this distancing happened until David Cameron became leader; even then, they disagreed more about past conduct than about future policy. They should be "weak" on immigration, though I admit I still don't know what you mean by this! What I mean is that people thought that all they cared about was campaigning against asylum seekers and immigrants. The rest of the weaknesses seem correct - it's hard to think of something for the SNP, maybe the devolution issue.

This site describes party policies on the European Constitution. The far-left parties, including Greens, are anti-EU. The Left position for the EU issue should be something to do with abandoning the current EU project and creating a "social Europe" instead. (That's their buzzword for "left-wing Europe".) SNP opposed the European Constitution, but Plaid supported it.

[gopprogressive]

I'm not so sure about immigration (the public seems considerably the right of the political establishment on immigration- but I do know the campaign against the fox hunting ban backfired big time), but the Tories are to the right of Labour on non-FP stuff. I may put the Tories at the same as Blair on some on those issues then, but I'm not sure- since the Iraq War and "Bush's poodle" backlash was entirely against Labour & Blair.

I'll do some test runs once the regionalism is sorted out, and we'll see.

I have eliminated Ken Clarke and Michael Ancram as possible Tory leaders and replaced them with William Hague and Ian Duncan Smith. I will also replace David Blunkett with John Prescott.

[matvail2002]

The way that I see it, the Tories are basically CR on everything except a few thing which they are C.

For Tony Blair's Labour, I think they are their position is basically C but for a few things that you go more to the left or the right, for exemple they are CL on immigration, but CR on National Security and Defense and C on Economic Matters and environmental matters.

For the Lib Dems, I must say that they are CL/L on a few things (Civil Liberties, ID Cards, National Security, Defense), but their rest of their economic and social platform is very vague (especially for their position on free markets) except that they are the most pro-European of major parties.

UKIP position is almost the same as the Tories expect that they are R on European Issues.

BNP is R on social issues and immigration and CL on economic issues. Don't forget that their new base comes mainly from alienated Labour voters.

The Greens are CL or L on almost everything.

Respect is L on everything except on some social issues (homosexual marriage and such), especially because of their particular voting base.

SNP and Plaid are between C and CL on most issues, with even some CR for some social/moral issues and L on devolution.

[matvail2002]

//European Constituion

We should have a socialist and a flexible European Union based on the sovereignty of nations as a bulwark against US imperialism.

Support the European Constitution and we need the Euro as currency to better integrate with our European partners.

The European Constitution is a good start but we need a Referendum on the constitution. However, the UK must be firm against the Euro.

The European Union is not a bad institution but the European constitution is a threat to British sovereignty.

The UK should withdraw from the European Union.

[gopprogressive]

Thanks Matavail and Gaffney- I think the 2005 scenario is ready for beta-testing. I may edit the ridings for cabinet ministers, shadow cabinet ministers, and high-profile candidates- but I think what I have now is good.

[gopprogressive]

// each region should have 18 regional center values

// 1 means the regional center is 1' date=' 5 that it is 5

// acceptable values are 1-5

//Northern Ireland SW

//Asylum + Immigration

3

//Ban on Fox Hunting

2

//Devolved Powers

2

//Education

3

//Environment

3

//European Constitution

4

//Home Defense

3

//Identity Cards

2

//Iraq War

2

//Licensing Laws

2

//Marijuana

4

//National Health Service

2

//N.I. Peace Process

1

//Pensions

2

//Smoking In Public

4

//Tax and Spend

3

//Terror Suspects

2

//US Relations

3

//Northern Ireland NE

//Asylum + Immigration

4

//Ban on Fox Hunting

4

//Devolved Powers

3

//Education

4

//Environment

4

//European Constitution

4

//Home Defense

4

//Identity Cards

4

//Iraq War

4

//Licensing Laws

4

//Marijuana

4

//National Health Service

3

//N.I. Peace Process

5

//Pensions

3

//Smoking In Public

4

//Tax and Spend

4

//Terror Suspects

4

//US Relations

4

//NE Scotland

//Asylum + Immigration

3

//Ban on Fox Hunting

3

//Devolved Powers

2

//Education

3

//Environment

2

//European Constitution

2

//Home Defense

3

//Identity Cards

3

//Iraq War

2

//Licensing Laws

3

//Marijuana

3

//National Health Service

3

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

3

//Smoking In Public

3

//Tax and Spend

3

//Terror Suspects

3

//US Relations

2

//South Scotland

//Asylum + Immigration

3

//Ban on Fox Hunting

2

//Devolved Powers

2

//Education

2

//Environment

3

//European Constitution

2

//Home Defense

3

//Iraq War

3

//Identity Cards

3

//Licensing Laws

2

//Marijuana

3

//National Health Service

2

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

1

//Smoking In Public

2

//Tax and Spend

3

//Terror Suspects

3

//US Relations

3

//North of England

//Asylum + Immigration

3

//Ban on Fox Hunting

2

//Devolved Powers

2

//Education

2

//Environment

3

//European Constitution

3

//Home Defense

3

//Identity Cards

3

//Iraq War

2

//Licensing Laws

2

//Marijuana

3

//National Health Service

2

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

1

//Smoking In Public

2

//Tax and Spend

2

//Terror Suspects

3

//US Relations

2

//Liverpool & Lancashire

//Asylum + Immigration

3

//Ban on Fox Hunting

2

//Devolved Powers

3

//Education

3

//Environment

3

//European Constitution

3

//Home Defense

3

//Identity Cards

3

//Iraq War

2

//Licensing Laws

2

//Marijuana

3

//National Health Service

2

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

1

//Smoking In Public

4

//Tax and Spend

3

//Terror Suspects

3

//US Relations

2

//Greater Manchester

//Asylum + Immigration

2

//Ban on Fox Hunting

2

//Devolved Powers

3

//Education

2

//Environment

2

//European Constitution

3

//Home Defense

3

//Identity Cards

3

//Iraq War

2

//Licensing Laws

2

//Marijuana

3

//National Health Service

2

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

2

//Smoking In Public

2

//Tax and Spend

2

//Terror Suspects

3

//US Relations

2

//North and West Yorkshire

//Asylum + Immigration

4

//Ban on Fox Hunting

4

//Devolved Powers

4

//Education

4

//Environment

3

//European Constitution

4

//Home Defense

4

//Identity Cards

3

//Iraq War

3

//Licensing Laws

3

//Marijuana

4

//National Health Service

3

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

3

//Smoking In Public

4

//Tax and Spend

3

//Terror Suspects

3

//US Relations

3

//South and East Yorkshire

//Asylum + Immigration

3

//Ban on Fox Hunting

3

//Devolved Powers

3

//Education

2

//Environment

3

//European Constitution

3

//Home Defense

3

//Identity Cards

3

//Iraq War

2

//Licensing Laws

2

//Marijuana

3

//National Health Service

1

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

1

//Smoking In Public

4

//Tax and Spend

2

//Terror Suspects

3

//US Relations

2

//Wales

//Asylum + Immigration

2

//Ban on Fox Hunting

2

//Devolved Powers

3

//Education

3

//Environment

3

//European Constitution

2

//Home Defense

3

//Identity Cards

3

//Iraq War

2

//Licensing Laws

4

//Marijuana

3

//National Health Service

2

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

1

//Smoking In Public

2

//Tax and Spend

2

//Terror Suspects

3

//US Relations

2

//NW West Midlands

//Asylum + Immigration

3

//Ban on Fox Hunting

4

//Devolved Powers

3

//Education

3

//Environment

3

//European Constitution

4

//Home Defense

4

//Iraq War

2

//Identity Cards

3

//Licensing Laws

4

//Marijuana

4

//National Health Service

3

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

2

//Smoking In Public

4

//Tax and Spend

3

//Terror Suspects

3

//US Relations

2

//Birmingham and Coventry

//Asylum + Immigration

2

//Ban on Fox Hunting

2

//Devolved Powers

3

//Education

2

//Environment

2

//European Constitution

3

//Home Defense

2

//Identity Cards

1

//Iraq War

2

//Licensing Laws

2

//Marijuana

3

//National Health Service

2

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

2

//Smoking In Public

2

//Tax and Spend

3

//Terror Suspects

2

//US Relations

2

//West of England

//Asylum + Immigration

4

//Ban on Fox Hunting

4

//Devolved Powers

4

//Education

3

//Environment

3

//European Constitution

4

//Home Defense

4

//Iraq war

4

//Identity Cards

4

//Licensing Laws

3

//Marijuana

3

//National Health Service

3

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

3

//Smoking In Public

3

//Tax and Spend

4

//Terror Suspects

4

//US Relations

4

//NE Midlands

//Asylum + Immigration

2

//Ban on Fox Hunting

2

//Devolved Powers

3

//Education

3

//Environment

3

//European Constitution

4

//Home Defense

3

//Iraq War

2

//Identity Cards

3

//Licensing Laws

3

//Marijuana

3

//National Health Service

3

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

2

//Smoking In Public

2

//Tax and Spend

3

//Terrorism

3

//US Relations

2

//East England

//Asylum + Immigration

4

//Ban on Fox Hunting

4

//Devolved Powers

4

//Education

3

//Environment

4

//European Constitution

4

//Home Defense

4

//Identity Cards

4

//Iraq War

4

//Licensing Laws

4

//Marijuana

4

//National Health Service

3

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

3

//Smoking In Public

4

//Tax and Spend

4

//Terror Suspects

4

//US Relations

4

//Central England

//Asylum + Immigration

4

//Ban on Fox Hunting

4

//Devolved Powers

4

//Education

4

//Environment

3

//European Constitution

4

//Home Defense

4

//Identity Cards

4

//Iraq War

4

//Licensing Laws

4

//Marijuana

4

//National Health Service

4

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

4

//Smoking In Public

4

//Tax and Spend

4

//Terror Suspects

4

//US Relations

4

//Home Counties North

//Asylum + Immigration

4

//Ban on Fox Hunting

4

//Devolved Powers

4

//Education

4

//Environment

3

//European Constitution

4

//Home Defense

3

//Identity Cards

3

//Iraq War

4

//Licensing Laws

4

//Marijuana

4

//National Health Service

4

//N.I. Peace Process

4

//Pensions

4

//Smoking In Public

4

//Tax and Spend

4

//Terror Suspects

4

//US Relations

4

//Outer London

//Asylum + Immigration

3

//Ban on Fox Hunting

2

//Devolved Powers

4

//Education

3

//Environment

2

//European Constitution

4

//Home Defense

4

//Identity Cards

4

//Iraq War

4

//Licensing Laws

2

//Marijuana

3

//National Health Service

3

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

3

//Smoking In Public

2

//Tax and Spend

4

//Terror Suspects

4

//US Relations

4

//Central London

//Asylum + Immigration

2

//Ban on Fox Hunting

2

//Devolved Powers

3

//Education

2

//Environment

2

//European Constitution

2

//Home Defense

3

//Identity Cards

1

//Iraq War

2

//Licensing Laws

2

//Marijuana

3

//National Health Service

3

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

2

//Smoking In Public

2

//Tax and Spend

3

//Terror Suspects

2

//US Relations

2

//West Country

//Asylum + Immigration

4

//Ban on Fox Hunting

4

//Devolved Powers

3

//Education

3

//Environment

3

//European Constitution

4

//Home Defense

4

//Identity Cards

2

//Iraq War

2

//Licensing Laws

4

//Marijuana

4

//National Health Service

3

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

3

//Smoking In Public

4

//Tax and Spend

4

//Terror Suspects

3

//US Relations

3

//Home Counties South

//Asylum + Immigration

4

//Ban on Fox Hunting

4

//Devolved Powers

4

//Education

4

//Environment

3

//European Constitution

4

//Home Defense

4

//Identity Cards

4

//Iraq War

4

//Licensing Laws

4

//Marijuana

4

//National Health Service

4

//N.I. Peace Process

4

//Pensions

4

//Smoking In Public

4

//Tax and Spend

4

//Terror Suspects

4

//US Relations

4

//Southeast

//Asylum + Immigration

4

//Ban on Fox Hunting

4

//Devolved Powers

4

//Education

4

//Environment

3

//European Constitution

4

//Home Defense

4

//Identity Cards

4

//Iraq War

4

//Licensing Laws

3

//Marijuana

3

//National Health Service

4

//N.I. Peace Process

3

//Pensions

4

//Smoking In Public

3

//Tax and Spend

4

//Terror Suspects

4

//Terrorism

4[/quote']

[EGaffney]

Sort of on-topic, I've made revisions to the ridings_data and region_variables files that now incorporate the "differential turnout" and "Welsh bias" concepts. So you get remarkable-yet-feasible results like this:

[gopprogressive]

Did you change the DUP colour to red, or do you want it changed to Red? Any other party colours to change?

[EGaffney]

I used red for the DUP and blue for the UUP simply due to personal preference. "Tory blue" is the UUP's colour, more so than light blue, and red/blue is the DUP's colour scheme: see http://www.dup.org.uk/default.htm . (It looks a bit like a personality cult, doesn't it?) I can't think of any other changes. Again, solely as a matter of preference, I swapped Lib Dems to orange and SNP to yellow; that's somewhat more accurate than the original scheme. The most accurate would be Lib Dems yellow and SNP light yellow, but light yellow doesn't display particularly well.

BTW, I've made a final update to 2005 regional populations. Download the scenario from the usual place and you can get the updated files, namely, ridings_data and region_variables.

[gopprogressive]

I used red for the DUP and blue for the UUP simply due to personal preference. "Tory blue" is the UUP's colour, more so than light blue, and red/blue is the DUP's colour scheme: see http://www.dup.org.uk/default.htm . (It looks a bit like a personality cult, doesn't it?) I can't think of any other changes. Again, solely as a matter of preference, I swapped Lib Dems to orange and SNP to yellow; that's somewhat more accurate than the original scheme. The most accurate would be Lib Dems yellow and SNP light yellow, but light yellow doesn't display particularly well.

BTW, I've made a final update to 2005 regional populations. Download the scenario from the usual place and you can get the updated files, namely, ridings_data and region_variables.

Gaffney, feel free just to do so in the zip file I sent you and then send it back to me, please.

I also changed the BNP colours to Brown, the DUP's to dark-blue, the Lib-Dems to Orange, and the SNP to yellow (this isn't in the zip file I sent you, don't worry about it).

[EGaffney]

I'm now working through the ridings_data file, to reduce its size and minor party strength.

[Treasurer]

Perhaps Tuition Fees (for universities) would be another good issue to add. I was reccommended to use it for my Manchester 2005 election scenario. As regarding party colours, I normally stick to the colours given to the parties from Wikipedia, however, the colours may be wrong for older elections, or maybe the party had no official colour. So I stick to the UUP as light-blue, the DUP as brown in national election. I only allow colours to clash if I feel I have no other option or, because the party is so minor it doesn't matter.

[gopprogressive]

I'm now working through the ridings_data file, to reduce its size and minor party strength.

I changed Michael Martin from Independent to Labour, among other changes.

I will take a look at your ridings data and regional variables files, and you have finished them.

Also, Plaid Cymru should be polling at 10-15% of the vote in Wales- it currently polls at 5% for some reason...

[EGaffney]

I've sent you some files.

I don't know why Michael Martin should be Labour? Nobody considers the Speaker to be a party candidate.

Plaid Cymru are very good at increasing their vote during the campaign, so they should get a big malus at the beginning.

[gopprogressive]

Good point, but since Michael Martin was part of the Labour Party majority- he should be Labour.

I'll put in ur regional files information.

[EGaffney]

Good, tell me if it doesn't work. Martin wasn't part of the majority, by the way - he remained neutral, like the three Deputy Speakers. Together they were 2 Tories, 1 Labour and 1 ex-Labour, so that's how their numbers balanced out. If he were no longer Speaker, he would have become an independent MP in line with convention.

[gopprogressive]

Another good point, but I think he was counted as a Labour MP for purposes of party control- and he makes no sense being included with Rick Taylor and others (who were not friends of the Labour government).

Anyways, your numbers seem to work- so good work (I had to make some changes to prevent the two NI regions from being lumped together and having several Scottish islands suddenly become parts of Greater London).

As soon as you update the ridings, I think we should be done. Make sure you give greater bonuses to the lesser party leaders (like a profile of 4 rather than 3) and cabinet/shadow cabinet spokespeople.

[EGaffney]

The ridings are already updated in the file I sent you. I don't think cabinet ministers or minor party leaders should get bonuses; in the UK, they don't enjoy any advantage and often lose their seats.

[gopprogressive]

The ridings are already updated in the file I sent you. I don't think cabinet ministers or minor party leaders should get bonuses; in the UK, they don't enjoy any advantage and often lose their seats.

Good point. Though 1997 was a horrid year for the Tories, and I'm not sure why Trimble lost- other than the decline of the UUP (from what an Irish Prof told me, the party became perceived as a bunch of "poofs" and "toffs" while the DUP was viewed as a "working man's party" and had a more populist touch compared to the elitist UUP).

Will send you what I have for you to take a look. I replaced the alternate party leaders with ones that made more sense, altered the issues, and changed the regionalism; among other things. Tell me what you think.

[EGaffney]

Your correspondent is right, Unionists thought the UUP were 1. elitist; 2. sell-outs to the IRA by signing an agreement to let Sinn Féin into the coalition government. That brought out an inter-Protestant religious divide; it was as if the GOP were run by Episcopalians (Anglicans) who made no concessions to their evangelical base.

The swings in 1997 are quite interesting. Sure, there was a 10% swing against the Tories, but some high-profile MPs lost out a lot more: 11% against David Mellor, 12% against William Waldegrave, 16% against Norman Lamont (who had actually been deselected from his old seat) and a massive 17% for Portillo.

[gopprogressive]

The gentleman/correspondant in question was an elderly gentleman (although born-and-raised American, he spoke with an Irish accent due to the fact he spent much of life out there) and he apparently studied under Robert Frost and was "good friends" with the late William F. Buckley. I don't know if he's still alive, but by far- he was one of my favorite professors (sadly he only taught during the summer, and solely taught the History of Ireland). He was a most fascinating personality, and I'm glad to know that he knew what he was talking about on NI politics (as well as Republic ones too).