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UK General Election 2010


gopprogressive
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Why is Labour so helped out by the current ridings map? I thought that the FPTP system made an over-representation of rural districts more than anything else?

I found that unplausible because the Lib Dems have an even more pro-Euro and pro-immigration policy than any other major party.

If there is a hung parliament, does anything else coalition-wise than a Lab-Lib coalition is out of question? Could we see a Conservative-Lib Dems coalition based on a platform of spending cuts, because I cannot see any other coalition then a one without any of two major parties?

Some people have suggested the idea of a "Grand Coalition", like we have seen in Germany, for example.

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I've heard again about Clegg having a more natural affinity with the Tories than Labour, plus a Tory/Lib coalition would mean a fresh new government that can make a new start, and focus on cuts and reducing the national debt. Or it could be a case of "better the devil you know" with Clegg siding with brown's experience. All in all, it's all becoming rather unpredictable now. Best wait to release any GE2010 scenario till after the 3rd debate.

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For the Northern Ireland starting numbers, you could use the results of the Euro election as a baseline:

SF: 26%

DUP: 18%

UCU: 17%

SDLP: 16%

TUV: 14%

Alliance: 6%

Green: 3%

Maybe nudge the numbers around a bit to account for independents who have solid chances of winning in 2 seats, Lady Harmon in North Down and Rodney Connor in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, maybe cut them a chunk of the DUP's % since they aren't running in either seat.

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I just used the 2005 numbers, since I'm not sure if TUV can continue its momentum (especially since its vote-stealing from the unionist helped Sinn Fein get first place).

And the beta is ready.

Starting Polls: LAB 29%, CON 34%, LIB 18% (others and undecided are the rest).

The Conservatives either start out with a slight majority or a hung parliament but the largest major party.

Strongest Labour issues: Economic management, Education, Pensions

Strongest Conservative issues: Law and Order, European Union, Tax Policy

Strongest Lib-Dem issues: Integrity, NHS, Post Offices

If you have any more questions, post them here.

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Why is Labour so helped out by the current ridings map? I thought that the FPTP system made an over-representation of rural districts more than anything else?

Labour votes are spread out more evenly across the country, whereas Conservative votes stack up heavily in their safe seats and then drop down to levels at which they are vulnerable to Lab-LD tactical voting. Low turnout in Labour seats means they need fewer votes per MP.

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I liked it, however I think some positions issues for leaders are to review, especially as Clegg is more CR on economic issues and L on Europe. Plaid also seems too left-wing on some things, as they have similar economic positions as the SNP (such as government and unemployment), especially in light of the association in Labour in the Welsh government.

Also, BNP is C/CL on economic matters.

This is how I would put them on some issues:

Economic Policy: CL

Economic Management:CL

Budget and Debt: C

Pensions: CL

Families: C

Also, I would maybe add an alternate leader for the Greens and the BNP.

How about Jean Lambert and Andrew Brons.

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I liked it, however I think some positions issues for leaders are to review, especially as Clegg is more CR on economic issues and L on Europe. Plaid also seems too left-wing on some things, as they have similar economic positions as the SNP (such as government and unemployment), especially in light of the association in Labour in the Welsh government.

Also, BNP is C/CL on economic matters.

This is how I would put them on some issues:

Economic Policy: CL

Economic Management:CL

Budget and Debt: C

Pensions: CL

Families: C

Also, I would maybe add an alternate leader for the Greens and the BNP.

How about Jean Lambert and Andrew Brons.

Well I put Clegg where he is due to the rest of his party- though granted on some issues he is personally to the right of it; cameron is also personally centrist on a couple of issues where I put him as CR, but i put his positions there to factor in the rest of his party. Gordon Brown is even personally C-CR on some issues (as far as how he's governed), but I put him where he is at least rhetorically and where his party is.

As for the BNP, they're not really economically leftist, they hate Gordon Brown, attack socialism, and also rail against "welfare bums" - and want to deny social services/the welfare state to non-whites and immigrants. The only issue where they're CL on is the NHS.

Plaid Cymru and Sinn Feinn both have been fairly moderate in government, but their electoral platform is pretty standard left-wing and democratic socialist; they run to the left to galvanize their electoral bases, but try to govern closer to the center to prove that they're "responsible" when in government.

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not too bad but one big problem.

The NI ridings are awful, there are some constuencies in the wrong area, cnadidates not running in certain places and unrealistic percentages.

Ill sort this out for you and send you the updated ridings. Apart from that just a general tidy up needed. One more thing it would be a good idea to add the TUV to Veritas as I see them in that general area and bring their stance on NI to the complete right. I know this isn't strictly accurate but you have tied in the TUSC with Respect, which would never happen, but i understand the party constraints.

So Ill work a bit on the NI trouble and send you more accuratre data and add TUV to Veritas. If you disagree or want anything elese just let me know.

Also ill take into account the agreed unionist unity candidate for Fermanagh/South Tyrone (listed as an independant) and the fact that alex maskey has stood aside for the SDLP in South Belfast.

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