UK General Election 2010

[Treasurer]

Couldn't say though, that Stephen Twigg was a star candidate though. The best one I can think of is George Galloway(the star candidate)gaining the Bethnal Green and Bow for Respect. The Labour candidate Oona King lost 16.5% of her vote from 50 to 34 roughly, and Respect came from nowhere, as this was their first general election. However, Oona was relatively well-known as only the second black Labour MP. The Labour MP before Oona was a much more popular/well-known MP, Peter Shore, who was a cabinet minister and was a potential leader of the Labour party at one point in the late 70's/early 80's. However the seat he stood in was in the slightly changed constituency of Bethnal Green and Stepney but still covering most of the latter seat, which was renamed back to Bethnal Green and Bow in 1997. By this point Shore had retired.

[gopprogressive]

Couldn't say though, that Stephen Twigg was a star candidate though. The best one I can think of is George Galloway(the star candidate)gaining the Bethnal Green and Bow for Respect. The Labour candidate Oona King lost 16.5% of her vote from 50 to 34 roughly, and Respect came from nowhere, as this was their first general election. However, Oona was relatively well-known as only the second black Labour MP. The Labour MP before Oona was a much more popular/well-known MP, Peter Shore, who was a cabinet minister and was a potential leader of the Labour party at one point in the late 70's/early 80's. However the seat he stood in was in the slightly changed constituency of Bethnal Green and Stepney but still covering most of the latter seat, which was renamed back to Bethnal Green and Bow in 1997. By this point Shore had retired.

Yeah, plus Bethnal has a large Muslim immigrant community which voted largely as a bloc for Galloway. I have heard that the seat will return to Labour's hands due to the fact that Galloway and RESPECT's fortunes have fallen, plus Galloway has moved on to run for another constituency- plus they are running a South Asian for it.

Anyways, do any of you guys think that RESPECT will keep or gain a Parliamentary seat?

[matvail2002]

In this riding, all four major parties are having a candidate of Bangladeshi origin.

[EGaffney]

I don't think Respect will take seats anywhere, and I think their performances will be much worse than in 2005. Iraq is another five years ago now.

[gopprogressive]

I don't think Respect will take seats anywhere, and I think their performances will be much worse than in 2005. Iraq is another five years ago now.

So what do you think will happen in Northern Ireland? I haven't seen any polling there, so I tried to make educated guesses.

[matvail2002]

Based on the first debate, I think that the Conservatives could actually have a chance to win more seats with the fact that some soft-Labour voters could go Lib Dem like in 1983.

However, to be frank with you, even through I am free-market libertarian in many ways, I have a lot of difficulty on understanding the Lib Dems plateform. Are they classical liberals (in a libertarian social or economic ways) or are they just saying that they are a change because they are a possible kingmaker in the election with having some sort of a mish-mash of a very vague platform?

[matvail2002]

I don't think Respect will take seats anywhere, and I think their performances will be much worse than in 2005. Iraq is another five years ago now.

For what I have read, Galloway was not a very good MP among its constituents.

So what do you think will happen in Northern Ireland? I haven't seen any polling there, so I tried to make educated guesses.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/apr/06/election-2010-northern-ireland

The DUP will lose some points for sure due to the Robinson scandal. The TUV have a real chance of winning North Antrim as it will be a head to head race with the DUP. The unionists also have a chance of winning 2 more seats as they only will be one candidate is riding where that had two unionist candidates in 2005.

For the nationalist vote, very difficult to predict as there is a sense of alienation between all parties.

[Alexus]

Based on the first debate, I think that the Conservatives could actually have a chance to win more seats with the fact that some soft-Labour voters could go Lib Dem like in 1983.

However, to be frank with you, even through I am free-market libertarian in many ways, I have a lot of difficulty on understanding the Lib Dems plateform. Are they classical liberals (in a libertarian social or economic ways) or are they just saying that they are a change because they are a possible kingmaker in the election with having some sort of a mish-mash of a very vague platform?

I'd suggest checking out their policies. Ideological tags mean nothing in British politics any more.

[RFK/JFKfan]

I think Clegg's debating skill should now be moved up to 4.

[Red Dog Democrat]

I think Clegg's debating skill should now be moved up to 4.

More like a 5, YouGov has Clegg in second place in the popular vote.

[RFK/JFKfan]

More like a 5, YouGov has Clegg in second place in the popular vote.

And despite being in third place, Labour would be the biggest party in a hung parliament, based on UNS.

[gopprogressive]

I boosted Clegg's debating and issue familiarity to 4.

[gopprogressive]

Based on the first debate, I think that the Conservatives could actually have a chance to win more seats with the fact that some soft-Labour voters could go Lib Dem like in 1983.

However, to be frank with you, even through I am free-market libertarian in many ways, I have a lot of difficulty on understanding the Lib Dems plateform. Are they classical liberals (in a libertarian social or economic ways) or are they just saying that they are a change because they are a possible kingmaker in the election with having some sort of a mish-mash of a very vague platform?

The Lib-Dems have two identifiable wings: the "orange book" lib-dems who are classical liberal-libertarian (Clegg is a member of this wing), and the social liberals (Kennedy and Campbell were members of this wing) who are basically to the left of New Labour, but to the right of Old Labour.

And we'll see whether or not the Lib-Dems maintain their polling uptick.

[matvail2002]

So, the last leadership contest was between one candidate for those two wings?

[gopprogressive]

So, the last leadership contest was between one candidate for those two wings?

More or less.

[Red Dog Democrat]

So will the Lib Dems start in the low twenties, low thirties or in between?

[matvail2002]

It is too difficult to see any good number, as I think that we must wait until the second debate to see any good prediction of the solidity of the Lib Dem vote. I don't believe a Lib Dem lead until I will see a week of polls telling that especially is they only have a tiny advance at the current polls. The thing however is that I don't think that Brown is very popular as PM, so the the Lab-Lib coalition with Brown as leader could backfire very fast among weak Lib Dem voters.

I think however that the real base of the Lib Dems are now at 24-25% with Labour at 29%-30% and the Tories at 35%. However, I can see the Lib Dems slipping into 22%.

However, the real poll will be on election day.

[matvail2002]

So will the Lib Dems start in the low twenties, low thirties or in between?

I would say 22-23%.

[Abe Lincoln]

They're polling at 30% right now but I doubt that would translate into a similar percentage in the election.

[RFK/JFKfan]

They're polling at 30% right now but I doubt that would translate into a similar percentage in the election.

I think it's possible that we could see a snowball effect for the Lib Dems over the next 18 days.

[matvail2002]

They're polling at 30% right now but I doubt that would translate into a similar percentage in the election.

The Canadian 1988 election is a good example as at one time some pollsters have predicted more than 45% for the Liberals after the first debate when they only had 31% at election night.

Tomorrow, the markets and the pound will be to watch in the markets, especially with such a magistral problem for air travel.

[Treasurer]

According to the BBC poll tracker, the campaign began on the 6th Apr, with the Lib Dems at 19%. For the first debate event, depends how it goes, but if you're using the 2 to -2 range (I sometimes go much higher in my scenarios), I would have Clegg on +2 in the momentum stakes, and Cameron & Brown on -1.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8280050.stm

Voters could very well still be reluctant to turn to the Lib Dems, as it would keep Brown in power, plus the percentage they have, might not translate well into seats, much like the SDP-Liberal Alliance in '83, but I'd be very worried if Clegg wins especially the last debate a week before the election, and if not, all 3. However, when it gets right down to the bone, will the voters warm to the Lib Dem's actual policies, such as on Europe?

[RFK/JFKfan]

According to the BBC poll tracker, the campaign began on the 6th Apr, with the Lib Dems at 19%. For the first debate event, depends how it goes, but if you're using the 2 to -2 range (I sometimes go much higher in my scenarios), I would have Clegg on +2 in the momentum stakes, and Cameron & Brown on -1.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8280050.stm

Voters could very well still be reluctant to turn to the Lib Dems, as it would keep Brown in power, plus the percentage they have, might not translate well into seats, much like the SDP-Liberal Alliance in '83, but I'd be very worried if Clegg wins especially the last debate a week before the election, and if not, all 3. However, when it gets right down to the bone, will the voters warm to the Lib Dem's actual policies, such as on Europe?

The EU is fairly unpopular, but i don't think it's as unpopular as it's made out to be. In fact, a fairly recent poll showed that 36% are in favor of EU Membership, and 38% are against, so pretty even. Someone on another forum actually suggested that some UKIP and BNP leaners might vote Lib Dem as a tactical vote to get a hung parliament. I find this idea pretty hillarious, but still.

[matvail2002]

The EU is fairly unpopular, but i don't think it's as unpopular as it's made out to be. In fact, a fairly recent poll showed that 36% are in favor of EU Membership, and 38% are against, so pretty even. Someone on another forum actually suggested that some UKIP and BNP leaners might vote Lib Dem as a tactical vote to get a hung parliament. I find this idea pretty hillarious, but still.

Why is Labour so helped out by the current ridings map? I thought that the FPTP system made an over-representation of rural districts more than anything else?

I found that unplausible because the Lib Dems have an even more pro-Euro and pro-immigration policy than any other major party.

If there is a hung parliament, does anything else coalition-wise than a Lab-Lib coalition is out of question? Could we see a Conservative-Lib Dems coalition based on a platform of spending cuts, because I cannot see any other coalition then a one without any of two major parties?

[matvail2002]

However, when it gets right down to the bone, will the voters warm to the Lib Dem's actual policies, such as on Europe?

Clegg is now in the spotlight, so he will be attacked by everybody.

To be frank with you, the Europe part in the Lib Dems platform is very problematic for many voters, especially with the current situation in Greece.