UK General Election 2010

[thetrotsky]

late to the topic but i think parties feilding more than 40 cabdidatesa should be included (less for regionals of courses)

therefore i think the far left Trade Union and Socialist Coalition shoul;d be included and the Far Right TUV in Northern Ireland.

[EGaffney]

late to the topic but i think parties feilding more than 40 cabdidatesa should be included (less for regionals of courses)

therefore i think the far left Trade Union and Socialist Coalition shoul;d be included and the Far Right TUV in Northern Ireland.

There is a hard limit of 16 on the number of parties. The parties that matter take this space up pretty quickly:

3 big parties

3 medium parties (UKIP/Green/BNP)

2 big nationalist parties

4 big Northern Ireland parties

1 independent group

So you only have room for three discretionary parties. Candidates for this slot include the Alliance, Respect, and the Alliance for Democracy, as well as TUV and the Bob Crow party.

[matvail2002]

Anyone have any polling for Northern Ireland?

I have indeed the same question. I however notice that there is a strong sense of alienation for major parties, especially with the expanses scandal which had tarnished the reputation of a few actors in NI Westminster politics.

Also, do you this would be a good idea to make a quick Northern Ireland scenario for this election, as a map is already made with one region per riding?

[RFK/JFKfan]

I think Alan Johnson should be included as an alternate Labour Leader.

[matvail2002]

So you only have room for three discretionary parties. Candidates for this slot include the Alliance, Respect, and the Alliance for Democracy, as well as TUV and the Bob Crow party.

Alliance for Democracy could basically remplace Veritas.

I would put Respect and Trade Union and Socialist Coalition under the same banner as they only have a limited scope of candidates with are realistically electable.

[gopprogressive]

late to the topic but i think parties feilding more than 40 cabdidatesa should be included (less for regionals of courses)

therefore i think the far left Trade Union and Socialist Coalition shoul;d be included and the Far Right TUV in Northern Ireland.

The TUSC will be included in RESPECT. The TUV I'm thinking will be UKIP or Veritas. UKIP makes more sense, as the TUV has strong links to the party. What do you guys think?

I'll put John Bercow as the leader of the Independents.

[matvail2002]

TUV is an Euroseptic Party like UKIP, so I would maybe put it with the UKIP.

Besides, in a fictional NI scenario with British parties, Ian Paisley was the leader of the UKIP.

However, I have a question, are they any nationalist parties in NI which are more right-wing/classical liberal like the two main parties in the Republic?

[thetrotsky]

TUV is an Euroseptic Party like UKIP, so I would maybe put it with the UKIP.

Besides, in a fictional NI scenario with British parties, Ian Paisley was the leader of the UKIP.

However, I have a question, are they any nationalist parties in NI which are more right-wing/classical liberal like the two main parties in the Republic?

I would say both the SDLP and Sinn Fein are right wing anyway, despite claims to the contrary. Other than that, Fianna Fail are starting to organise up here recently, a former SF MLA jumped to them a few months back. There aren't many other nationalist parties nowdays, but parties from the the 50's and 60's like the New Democratic Party were fairly right wing. Non-Denominational parties that are right wing include the middle class Alliance party and the lunatics in pro-capitalism which is gone now ( and only had about 10 members anyway). There seems to be only one "true left" party on each side, Workers Party for nationalists and the Progressive Unionists for unionists. Both these parties are fairly minor and in decline. The only left party that seems to have any momentum behind it is the Socialist Party, which is neither unionist or nationalist.

[gopprogressive]

Well the SDLP and Sinn Fein both run on centre-left and left-wing platforms, respectively, but both have been rather moderate in government- despite the occasional rhetoric to the contrary.

[EGaffney]

Well the SDLP and Sinn Fein both run on centre-left and left-wing platforms, respectively, but both have been rather moderate in government- despite the occasional rhetoric to the contrary.

Well, with all due respect to poster "thetrotsky", s/he seems to be coming from a very left-wing perspective if s/he considers Sinn Féin right-wing.

[thetrotsky]

Sorry EGaffney, but Sinn Fein are almost as right wing as any of the unionist parties. Sure they don't support the death sentence or oppose gay relationships, but the economic policies they are supporting up in Stormont are unreal. New local rates reminisent of the poll tax, standing by as company after company slashs jobs here and supporting the new labour measures on the recession. Lets also remeber these people are NATIONALISTS. That puts them generally under the same banner as the BNP thugs. They beleive that the interests of Irish people should come before anyone else, very "left wing" of them!

Oh, and lets not forget SF thought it totally acceptable to murder anyone who opposed them for the best part of 50 years, and are very much under the thumb of the rapists in the Catholic church. So yes EGaffeny Sinn Fein are right wing. Granted nowhere near as much as the nutters in the DUP or TUV, and even the SDLP, but still. The most left wing of the parties in Stormont is (unfortuantly) the PUP. And they too are tied up with murderers.

[gopprogressive]

Trotsky, what do you think of the Alliance Party?

Also do you think of my previous scenarios?

And everyone-

what issues should each party be strong and/or weak on?

Here is the list:

@issues

Asylum and Immigration

Budget and Debt

Devolution

Economic Management

Education

Environment

European Union

Families

Government

Law and Order

Military

National Security

NHS

Northern Ireland

Pensions

Post Offices

Tax Policy

Unemployment

@end

[Treasurer]

Labour - Strong on Economic management and Unemployment

Weak on immigration and debt.

Conservatives - strong on Budget and Debt, Tax policy

Weak on environment and devolution.

Lib Dems - strong on Budget and Debt.

Weak on Tax policy.

[gopprogressive]

All right here's what I think I'll do:

Labour

Strong on economic management, families, education, pensions

Weak on government, budget and debt, EU, tax policy, post offices, integrity

Conservatives

Strong on Europe, Tax policy, Budget and debt, government, law and order

Weak on economic management, nhs, devolution (in wales and scotland), education

Lib-Dems

Strong on education, environment (with tories), devolution (in scotland and wales), post offices

Weak on europe, immigration, national security, law and order, experience

Also any suggestions on the NI parties?

[thetrotsky]

GOP Progressive

I like the Alliance party stance on the National Question more than any of the other Stormont parties, but they still maintain an underlying pro-union stance. Studying politics I have met my fair share of politicians here, and every one I met from the Alliance said they were por-union, which I don't condemn, but if they claim to be neutral they should at least practice it. Apart from that the Aliiance differ little in policy to the UUP or SDLP on other issues. Therefore I came the conclusion a long time ago that the Alliance are a Middle-Class unionist party with a smaller "u" that the others.

And I really enjoyed your scenarios you sent me. Haven't got playing them all yet, but really enjoyed the Ireland scenario, even though it was a little flawed. I went and tinkered with it a bit to fix it, but there was a very fun scenario there.

[gopprogressive]

GOP Progressive

I like the Alliance party stance on the National Question more than any of the other Stormont parties, but they still maintain an underlying pro-union stance. Studying politics I have met my fair share of politicians here, and every one I met from the Alliance said they were por-union, which I don't condemn, but if they claim to be neutral they should at least practice it. Apart from that the Aliiance differ little in policy to the UUP or SDLP on other issues. Therefore I came the conclusion a long time ago that the Alliance are a Middle-Class unionist party with a smaller "u" that the others.

And I really enjoyed your scenarios you sent me. Haven't got playing them all yet, but really enjoyed the Ireland scenario, even though it was a little flawed. I went and tinkered with it a bit to fix it, but there was a very fun scenario there.

Thanks. What did you change with the Ireland 2007 scenario? Just curious. Gaffney provided me with the insights on it.

[thetrotsky]

Thanks. What did you change with the Ireland 2007 scenario? Just curious. Gaffney provided me with the insights on it.

Mainly just the background of the candidates you made (The Fianna Fail one was incomplete). ATM Im looking into adding more candidates and possibly new parties. Ill maybe also look into the riding data to see if it needs brused up, but the ridings did seem accurate enough. If I get it done (snowed under with work and school atm) Ill send you it to see what you think.

[gopprogressive]

Thanks, I'll have to fix that. Also, do you guys think that I should have the Greens and UKIP within striking distance of taking seats in Parliament?

[Manic]

The Alliance for Democracy seems to now consist of just one party- the English Democrats.

[Treasurer]

Thanks, I'll have to fix that. Also, do you guys think that I should have the Greens and UKIP within striking distance of taking seats in Parliament?

UKIP have no chance of getting a seat. UKIP declared they had their first ever MP in the commons thanks to the MP for Castleford, Bob Spink defecting from the Tories to UKIP. This has now been denied by Spink ever joining the party, and is now an independent.

It's a much different story for the Greens, who have a very good chance getting their first seat. Brighton Pavilion is a toss-up between Labour, Conservative and Greens, which could go either way, looking at the previous result, but it now seems certain Labour will lose this seat, and it could be a dead heat between the Greens and the Tories. Fears of a hung parliament may swing it to the Tories though.

[gopprogressive]

I have heard that Farage could beat Bercow. Do you think that could happen? I put Farage within 10-15 pts of Bercow.

As for Brighton Pavillion, I'll see how it turns out in the scenario once the ridings are finished (they're currently about 40-50% done).

[Treasurer]

Good job. I was thinking for some reason Farage had turned Independent to stand in the seat, but turns out he's still with UKIP. I think he'll do well, but still finish in second place.

[matvail2002]

I have heard that Farage could beat Bercow. Do you think that could happen? I put Farage within 10-15 pts of Bercow.

No, I don't think that, even if Bercow if somewhat controversal, he is somewhat friendly to moderate Labour and Lib Dems voters. The UKIP base in this region is also so-so.

As for Brighton Pavillion, I'll see how it turns out in the scenario once the ridings are finished (they're currently about 40-50% done).

With an uncertain election result, I think that the Conservatives could win this riding with 35% of the vote (and let's say in the riding the conservatives are seeming to be the most constant base of voters).

Just a question, if there a way where a very strong candidate could go against the marginal, if for exemple a popular candidate retire and a star candidate win for it for another party with a 10-15% swing. I saw it a few times in Canada, is this possible in the British system?

[gopprogressive]

Yes, from what I understand- this happened big time in 1997; and I think in 1979- but these are typically reserved for landslides or "watershed" elections in the UK.

[matvail2002]

Yes, from what I understand- this happened big time in 1997;

One word, Portillo!