UK General Election 2010

[gopprogressive]

Alternate Leaders

David Miliband (LAB)

David Davis (CON)

Liam Fox (CON)

Chris Huhne (LIB)

Nigel Farage (UKIP)

Salma Yaqoob (RES)

Any others you guys would like to see?

Also- what do you want to see for the starting %s and starting seat numbers?

[matvail2002]

George Osborne (CON)

Richard Barnbrook (BNP)

Sian Berry (Green)

Jean Lambert (Green)

[matvail2002]

BTW, there are some new parties which have a sizeable number of candidates:

Alliance for Democracy

Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

[gopprogressive]

I'll put the Alliance for Democracy in place of Veritas. As for the "Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition," I'll either put them under the RESPECT or Independent banner.

Also what should be the starting % for the big 3 parties? And the number of seats for the others?

[matvail2002]

I would put the Tories at about 38%, Labour at 31% and the Lib Dems at 17%.

For the other parties, I think Plaid have about 2-3 seats, the SNP have about 5 seats, and the Speaker had one Independant seat which he goes versus Nigel Farage of the UKIP with another independent seat for Dai Davies.

UKIP and the UKIP will have about 3% of the vote and the Greens will have 2%.

[matvail2002]

I'm not sure how well RESPECT will do. I'll have to look and see if there are any polling on the subject. I doubt the party will do well due to the death of the anti-war movement and infighting among the party leadership- but you never know, the UK Muslim immigrant community is alienated from the major parties, so it wouldn't be surprising if they do manage to hold onto their single seat.

COALITIONS:

CON

UUP

LAB

Plaid

LIB DEMS

ALLIANCE

[Red Dog Democrat]

I think a Labour-Libdem coalition is being considered for a hung parliament.

[zagatstein]

Don't forget Dr. Richard Taylor as the Independent (Health Concern, technically) MP for Wyre Forest. I'm pretty sure he's standing for re-election, although with all three major parties also standing candidates, he might have more difficulty winning this time around.

I would put the Tories at about 38%, Labour at 31% and the Lib Dems at 17%.

For the other parties, I think Plaid have about 2-3 seats, the SNP have about 5 seats, and the Speaker had one Independant seat which he goes versus Nigel Farage of the UKIP with another independent seat for Dai Davies.

UKIP and the UKIP will have about 3% of the vote and the Greens will have 2%.

[gopprogressive]

Dr. Taylor is the leader of the Independents, I may put in another one or two- any suggestions?

I'll do some work on it over the week and weekend then.

[matvail2002]

Dr. Taylor is the leader of the Independents, I may put in another one or two- any suggestions?

I'll do some work on it over the week and weekend then.

John Bercow is a better suited leader, because he is almost assured of his victory as the other two main parties will not put a candidate against it with the UKIP former leader and current MEP Nigel Farage as only major candidate.

I think a Labour-Libdem coalition is being considered for a hung parliament.

History had told us that coalitions like that don't last very long in the British system, as the Lib Dems know (and this especially to their previous strong opposition to Labour) that a gamble like that could put them in the wildnerness for ever.

To be frank with you, I think that Labour will try to give some ''candies'' to nationalist parties to have some support. However, if there is a hung parliament, it will probably not pass the next budget as any hung parliament in the UK in the last 50 years, except for a few exceptions. For that, backbenchers don't vote as strictly to the party line as in the Canadian context, where minority governments are something that will be almost a reality for a long time in the future.

Also, in the House of Commons in Westminster, does all the MP (except the nationalist Northern Irish MP who don't sit) can vote at the same time even through they don't have pre-assigned seats as in Canada, New Zealand or Australia? Also, I am not sure which effect the debates will have, as this is a relatively new thing to British politics.

Polls are also very contradictory at this time and don't be surprised if the bandwagon effect applies to this election, as Tory voters are much more decided for whom they will vote in advance and there is a lot of shallow voters in other parties.

[matvail2002]

This is totally awesome to help plan the election:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/vote2005/swingometer/html/labcon.stm

[graemp]

On the issue of the relationship between the Conservatives and the UUP, regardless of the actual relationship, if the UUP are kept seperate, it makes it more 'game player friendly';

Anyone wanting to play any of the Northern Ireland based parties will want to be able to see 'in one view' what is going on both across the 'region' and in each riding. Therefore it is necessary to try and get the 4 main participants positioned next to each other either as parties listed 1-4, 5-8 or 9-12. I would recommend 9-12 being UUP, DUP, SDLP and SF. This would mean the Alliance, TUV and various independents being on 'the next page'. If you combine the UUP with the conservatives, you wont get the UUP on the same page as the rest of Northern Ireland.

[graemp]

Suggestions for Independent options (not sure if anyone ever plays these)

George Galloway

Respect are unlikely to field more than a handful of candidates so it is not worth making them a seperate player in my view.

Bob Spink

Sitting MP re-standing as Independent, though if you prefer, you could include him with UKIP who he apparently joined.

Sylvia Hermon

Sitting MP re-standing as Independent Unionist (opposed the Tory deal)

I think all other 'Independent' MPs are not re-standing though I am not sure about Dai Davies.

On the subject of wether or not a Lord can become Prime Minister, constitutionally, the Monarch can call on anyone they like to form a government. Not only are they not required to be a member of the house of commons, they don't even need to be a member of the house of lords either. In fact, if Betty Windsor wanted to, she could ask Britney spears to form a government if she wanted. In practice, the monarch's choice is restricted only by the 'judgement' of whom might be able to command sufficient support in the house of commons with which to pass a 'Queens speech' at the first reading.

Interestingly, if David Cameron, for instance, were to end up as leader of the largest group, but without a majority, and Gordon Brown resigned, the queen would call Cameron to form a government. From the moment that Cameron accepts, he becomes Prime Minister. If he were then to put together a queens speech which then failed to get passed by the commons, his only course of action would be to resign. Thus he would have gone down in history as the only British Prime Minister to have been appointed but to have failed to conduct any business.

I flag this up now as, not just because it is an oddity but that it is something that could easily happen - even though it never has happened.

[graemp]

John Bercow is a better suited leader, because he is almost assured of his victory as the other two main parties will not put a candidate against it with the UKIP former leader and current MEP Nigel Farage as only major candidate.

History had told us that coalitions like that don't last very long in the British system, as the Lib Dems know (and this especially to their previous strong opposition to Labour) that a gamble like that could put them in the wildnerness for ever.

To be frank with you, I think that Labour will try to give some ''candies'' to nationalist parties to have some support. However, if there is a hung parliament, it will probably not pass the next budget as any hung parliament in the UK in the last 50 years, except for a few exceptions. For that, backbenchers don't vote as strictly to the party line as in the Canadian context, where minority governments are something that will be almost a reality for a long time in the future.

Also, in the House of Commons in Westminster, does all the MP (except the nationalist Northern Irish MP who don't sit) can vote at the same time even through they don't have pre-assigned seats as in Canada, New Zealand or Australia? Also, I am not sure which effect the debates will have, as this is a relatively new thing to British politics.

Polls are also very contradictory at this time and don't be surprised if the bandwagon effect applies to this election, as Tory voters are much more decided for whom they will vote in advance and there is a lot of shallow voters in other parties.

The Speaker at election time is an interesting issue. It is often said that the Speaker is not opposed by any of the main political parties. Whilst this looks like being the case this year, it is not usually the case. I used to live in a constituency where the MP became the speaker and at the next election he was opposed by both main opposition parties. Either one or the other invariably opposes the speaker more often than neither doing so.

I have to pick you up on Coalitions Matvail. Whilst I want to avoid raising any political debate in this thread, I feel it is right to point out that Coalitions in the UK have a habit of lasting a long time.

1. The Liberal Unionists went into coalition with the Conservatives in 1886 and it lasted beyond the life of the parliament, which ended in 1892 and then continued from 1895-1906.

2. The Unionist, Labour and Liberal parties formed a Coalition in 1916 which continued [albeit without parts of the Labour and Liberal parties] beyond an election until 1922.

3. The Conservatives, Liberals and some Labour members formed a coalition in 1931. although 'half' of the Liberals left the coalition in 1932, the coalition continued in power through 2 successful elections until 1940.

4. A new coalition between Conservatives, Liberals and Labour was formed in 1940 and lasted a full 5 years.

There have been 3 instances in the UK where minority governments have attempted to govern without doing a deal with one of the opposition parties. On each occasion the minority government was a Labour one;

1. 1924 Labour did not enter into any discussions and was brought down in less than a year.

2. 1929 Labour managed to 'govern' for 2 years with informal Liberal support.

3. 1976 When Labour lost it's majority due to by-election losses, they agreed a deal with the Liberals who supported them from the opposition benches in exchange for policy consultation. After 18 months, the Liberals ended the deal but Labour attempted to soldier on rather than have an election. This resulted in the 'Winter of Discontent' which in turn resulted in 12 years of Thatcherism.

I can only think of one instance of a party governing for a long time without having a majority and that would be the Liberal government between 1910 and 1916. They had no formal arrangment with Labour or the Irish Nationalists, though they had a clear 'understanding with the Nationalists resulting in the home Rule Bill.

Evidence tends to suggest that in the UK, a coalition or some formal party arrangement can provide a secure tenure of government. Insecurity comes when a party attempts to govern by itself while not having an overall majority or any sort of formal arrangement with another party.

I know this is not the case in Canada. How Stephen Harper can manage this is beyond me.

[gopprogressive]

@issues

Asylum and Immigration

Balanced Budget

Devolution

Economic Management

Education

Environment

European Union

Families

Government

Law and Order

Military

National Security

NHS

Northern Ireland

Pensions

Post Offices

Tax Policy

Unemployment

@end

@issue position descriptions

// left to right, 1 - 5

//Asylum and Immigration

Open-door immigration for all, especially from developing world. (GRN,RES,AL)

Make immigration easier. More rights to asylum seekers. (LIB,SNP,PC,SF)

No change to numbers allowed into the UK. Increase enforcement. (LAB, IND, SDLP)

Impose more limits on immigration. Admit fewer asylum seekers. (CON,UKIP,UUP,DUP, VER)

Non-white immigration is bad for Britain. Increase deportations. (BNP)

@

//Balanced Budget

Repudiate the debt as it is capitalist exploitation. (RES,SF)

Budget deficits were necessary to prevent economic collapse. (LAB,GRN,SDLP,PC)

Cut wasteful spending but no cuts to vital public services. (LIB,SNP,IND,DUP,AL)

Reduce government spending and reform welfare entitlements. (CON,UUP,BNP)

Impose draconican austerity measures to balance budget. (UKIP, VER)

@

//Devolution

Full independence to Scotland and Wales. (SNP,PC,SF)

Increase devolved powers for Assemblies and local councils. (LIB,GRN,RES,SDLP,AL,VER)

Devolution is working. No change to responsibilities. (LAB,UUP,DUP)

Devolution needs to be cut back. More powers for English MPs. (CON,UKIP,IND)

Devolution is a threat to the Union, no Scottish and Welsh powers. (BNP)

@

//Economic Management

Establish a socialist economy, nationalise all banks and tariffs on trade. (RES,SF,PC)

Nationalise select banks, install financial aid to restart lending. (LAB,GRN,SDLP)

New regulations on banking industry. Job creation but avoid inflation. (LIB,SNP,AL,DUP,IND)

Focus on fighting inflation, privatise banks when recovery imminent. (CON,UUP)

Allow collapse of banks, tighter monetary policy and repudiate bailouts. (UKIP,BNP,VER)

@

//Education

Radical education reforms so family wealth is not an advantage. (GRN,RES,SF)

Invest in state schools. Higher teacher pay and smaller classes. (LIB,PC,AL,IND)

Stay with reforms such as specialist schools and city academies. (LAB,SDLP,SNP)

Bring back grammar schools and tough discipline for disruptive pupils. (CON,UUP)

Greatly increase discipline and set up a school vouchers scheme. (UKIP,BNP,DUP,VER)

@

//Environment

Environmental protection is the #1 priority. No nuclear power. (GRN,RES,SNP,PC)

Begin a "Green tax shift" to discourage emissions and pollution. (CON,LIB,SF,ALL)

Encourage recycling, carbon emission cuts and clean transport. (LAB,SDLP,IND,UUP)

Support a better environment, but not at a cost to British industry. (UKIP,DUP,VER)

Climate Change is a hoax. There's no threat to our environment. (BNP)

@

//European Union

Europe should be supported as a bulwark against US imperialism. (SF,RES)

Support the Lisbon Treaty. No need for a referendum. (LAB,LIB,PC,SNP)

Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, but fight for democratic reform. (GRN,IND,ALL)

The Lisbon Treaty is a threat to British sovereignty. (CON,DUP,UUP)

The UK should withdraw from the European Union. (UKIP,BNP,VER)

@

//Families

End poverty. Focus new benefits on non-traditional families. (GRN,RES)

End child poverty. Invest in child care and expand family benefits. (LAB,PC,SF)

No cuts to family benefits and make child care more affordable. (LIB,IND,DUP,ALL,SNP)

Provide tax relief for families and 'welfare-to-work' programs. (CON,UUP,UKIP)

Deny family benefits to homosexuals, single mothers, and fornicators. (BNP,VER)

@

//Government

Labour has betrayed socialism. UK deserves a real left-wing government. (RES,GRN,PC,SNP)

Stay with the Labour Government and Gordon Brown's economic management. (LAB)

A coalition government is needed to help make more sensible decisions. (LIB,SDLP,ALL,IND,DUP)

Labour has failed and UK needs change with Conservative leadership. (CON,UUP)

The Conservatives are too liberal, we need a nationalist government. (UKIP,BNP,VER)

@

//Law and Order

Support restorative justice, and reduce sentencing. (SF, RESPECT, GRN)

Reduce poverty to fight crime. Focus on rehabiliation. (LIB,ALL,SDLP,PC)

Tough on crime, but also tough on the causes of crime. (LAB,IND,SNP)

Create an elite anti-crime squad, and increase sentencing. (CON,UUP,DUP)

Establish mandatory minimums, and bring back capital punishment. (UKIP,BNP,VER)

@

//Military

Withdraw from NATO. Replace military with Ministry of Peace. (SNP,PC,GRN,SF,RES)

Reduce the defense budget. Phase out military commitments. (IND,SDLP)

Stand with President Obama and his moderate foreign policy. (LAB,LIB,ALL)

Redouble our efforts in Afghanistan. Rebuild armed forces. (CON,UUP,DUP)

Restore defence budget to 1980s levels. Crush Islamofascism. (BNP,UKIP,VER)

@

//National Security

Repeal all current infringements on civil liberties. No Police State! (RES,SF)

Repeal post-2001 Anti-Terrorism Laws. Protect civil liberties. (LIB,GRN,PC,SNP,SDLP,ALL)

Support current detention and surveillance powers but repeal ID card scheme. (CON,UKIP,VER)

Support a national ID card program. Expand terrorist detention to 90 days. (LAB,UUP,DUP)

Impose racial profiling and allow execution of terror suspects. (BNP)

@

//NHS

Dramatically increase funding. End private sector interference. (PC,SF,RES,IND)

Increase funding, scrap targets and private initiatives. (LIB,GRN,SNP,BNP,SDLP)

Introduce more choice, combined with performance targets. (LAB,ALL,DUP)

More internal markets and private finance in the NHS. (CON,UUP,VER)

Completely privatise the NHS and move to an American model. (UKIP)

@

//Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland should unite with the Republic of Ireland. (SF,RESPECT)

Long-term peace will require more concessions and RUC reform. (SDLP,GRN)

We support the peace process. Devolve policing authority. (LAB,CON,LIB,ALL,IND,SNP,PC)

Take a tough line with Sinn Féin. No devolved policing. (UKIP,UUP,DUP,VER)

Sinn Féin is a bunch of terrorists; return NI to majority rule. (BNP)

@

//Pensions

Citizens pension for all, rises in line with average earnings. (SF,RESPECT,PC,IND)

Provide help to the poorest pensioners. Increase basic provision. (LAB,SNP,SDLP,GRN)

Restore pensions-earnings link. Cut council tax burden. (ALL,LIB,DUP,BNP)

Support private pensions and reduce reliance on public funds. (CON,UUP)

Scrap the state pension, provide tax breaks for private schemes. (UKIP)

@

//Post Offices

Restore local post offices closed by the government. (IND,SF,RES,PC,SNP)

Invest and modernise PO's for easier customer access. (LIB,GRN)

Royal Mail losing money with each closure. No more closures! (CON,UUP,DUP,BNP,SDLP,ALL)

Planned closures of PO's due to losses and fewer customers. (LAB)

Close all PO's and reform Royal Mail interlinked with banks. (UKIP,VER)

@

//Tax Policy

Return to pre-Thatcher income tax rates. Wealth tax on the rich. (SF,RES,PC)

Top tax rate of 50% and consider further tax increases. (LAB,SDLP,GRN,SNP)

Bring back the 10p Tax Rate but raise indirect taxes. (LIB,ALL,IND)

Reduce income and business taxation across the board. (CON,UUP,DUP,BNP)

Move to a flat income tax. Abolish the estate tax. (UKIP,VER)

@

//Unemployment

Establish alternative socialist economy to eliminate unemployment. (RES,SF,PC)

Nationalise failing industries and protect the welfare state. (LAB,GRN,SDLP)

Improve workforce retraining and promote new business development. (LIB,ALL,IND,SNP,DUP)

British jobs for British workers, and make UK more business-friendly. (CON,BNP,UUP)

Scrap the failed welfare state and enact radical free-market policies. (UKIP,VER)

@

Alternate Leaders

David Miliband (LAB)

Harriet Harman (LAB)

David Davis (CON)

Liam Fox (CON)

George Osbourne (CON)

Chris Huhne (LIB)

Nigel Farage (UKIP)

Sian Berry (GRN)

Salma Yaqoob (RES)

Any others, possibly more for Labour?

PARTIES (leaders):

Labour (Gordon Brown)

Conservative (David Cameron)

Liberal Democrat (Nick Clegg)

Scottish National (Angus Robertson)

UK Independence (Lord Pearson)

Plaid Cymru (Ieuan Wyn-Jones)

Green (Caroline Lucas)

British National (Nick Griffin)

Democratic Unionist (Peter Robinson)

Sinn Féin (Gerry Adams)

SDLP (Margaret Ritchie)

Ulster Unionist (Reg Empey)

Alliance (David Ford)

Respect (George Galloway)

Veritas (Paul Judge)

Independent (Richard Taylor)

Notes:

-will replace Respect with Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, should Respect be included or not?

-Alliance for Democracy will replace Veritas, need but i'll need party logo

[matvail2002]

I know this is not the case in Canada. How Stephen Harper can manage this is beyond me.

He basically need the support of another opposition party because he his about 10 seats short of a majority.

One thing I was also suprised in the UK is that party discipline is not as strong in Canada, as in the Canadian system, except on rare free votes, you are expelled from the caucus (even if you are a backbencher) if you don't vote with the party line.

Alliance for Democracy will replace Veritas, need but i'll need party logo

Veritas is part of the Alliance for Democracy.

Interestingly, if David Cameron, for instance, were to end up as leader of the largest group, but without a majority, and Gordon Brown resigned, the queen would call Cameron to form a government. From the moment that Cameron accepts, he becomes Prime Minister. If he were then to put together a queens speech which then failed to get passed by the commons, his only course of action would be to resign. Thus he would have gone down in history as the only British Prime Minister to have been appointed but to have failed to conduct any business.

The 1985 election in Ontario is the only coalition that was planned in Canadian history during an election between the Liberals and the NDP before the election day. On the first day of the assembly new session, the PC government was defeated and the lieutenant governor had convened the Liberal leader to form a coalition government with the NDP, but the NDP did not have any cabinet positions.

Also, In the 1985 provincial election in Quebec, the Liberal Party had won a complete landslide, but their leader and now PM have not won his seat. So, he was the PM without been an MP, so he called a by-election in a safe liberal seat.

[Red Dog Democrat]

Well, this Blair thing throws a wrench in things.

[matvail2002]

Sorry, which event do you mean by that?

[gopprogressive]

Tony Blair returns to the campaign trail.

I'm not sure if this will actually help Labour, as Blair is not a terribly popular figure- and may actually remind left-wing voters of the Labour government that abandoned them, motivating them to stay home or spoil votes.

[matvail2002]

That's right, this could actually backfire and even help Cameron and the Lib Dems.

Basically, the Labour Party is far more popular than Brown and Blair.

However, I am thinking that for the polls, a Lib Dems surge in percentage could mean more seats for the Tories as in 1983. However, to be frank a party (expect maybe Labour which are strong in a specific block of seats) most have 39-40% in popular vote to have a solid majority as in the Canadian system.

Anybody having any good indication on the third and regional party vote according to the latest polls? I cannot find any constant relation on that in the latest polls.

[gopprogressive]

Good news all- Treasurer of the PC is alive! He just had computer troubles and some personal stuff.

[Treasurer]

Good news all- Treasurer of the PC is alive! He just had computer troubles and some personal stuff.

Yeah, I'm just trying to get my priorities right, because I spent helluva lot of time on creating scenarios last year, maybe just exhausted myself from it, but I'll be back soon hopefully with the scenarios that were in progress.

[EGaffney]

This needs to get done quickly, there is a rumour that the election begins tomorrow! And all the high-profile politicians are acting like it has already begun today.

What needs to be finished? Ridings file, candidates, etc?

[Treasurer]

Well, if it's finished by the time of the election, we'll have theoryspark's version...hopefully.

[gopprogressive]

This needs to get done quickly, there is a rumour that the election begins tomorrow! And all the high-profile politicians are acting like it has already begun today.

What needs to be finished? Ridings file, candidates, etc?

I just need to go over the ridings file and fix them. Same with regionalism. Leaders and everything else are done.

How should I do regionalism? I'll send you guys my 2005 scenario for any suggestions and critiques.

Also, what should be the starting %s for each party; or swings from 2005?

Anyone have any polling for Northern Ireland?