Ireland Scenarios

[graemp]

I'm posting here as I refer to Ireland scenarios produced using the British version.

I remember playing a couple of modern Irish election scenarios a few years ago and am puzzled that I can't find them on my PC or in the Theoryspark lists. They were quite good.

If anyone has them could they either upload here or email them to me. Please PM me if you don't have my email.

[ktitus]

I'm posting here as I refer to Ireland scenarios produced using the British version.

I remember playing a couple of modern Irish election scenarios a few years ago and am puzzled that I can't find them on my PC or in the Theoryspark lists. They were quite good.

If anyone has them could they either upload here or email them to me. Please PM me if you don't have my email.

I think I know what you're talking about.

However, I don't have them and I think they were made using Chancellor Forever 2005.

Hope that helps.

[matvail2002]

I have them. Please check your e-mail.

Thanks!

[graemp]

I have them. Please check your e-mail.

Thanks!

Thnaks Mathy

[graemp]

I've decided to make my next scenario project an Irish Election.

I have the UK version of the game which allows me to play two different types of electoral system, FPTP and AV.

I have never seen the German version of the game, can someone who has tell me if it has the capacity to play a game using STV in multi-member ridings?

If it can, and it it a simple matter of inputting instructions into the game file, then I would be able to do this.

If it can't, does anyone have any advice on creating STV election scenarios for an AV game?

I shall probably try doing the 1987 General election.

[EGaffney]

I've decided to make my next scenario project an Irish Election.

I have the UK version of the game which allows me to play two different types of electoral system, FPTP and AV.

I have never seen the German version of the game, can someone who has tell me if it has the capacity to play a game using STV in multi-member ridings?

If it can, and it it a simple matter of inputting instructions into the game file, then I would be able to do this.

If it can't, does anyone have any advice on creating STV election scenarios for an AV game?

I shall probably try doing the 1987 General election.

The short answer to your question is No. The long answer: I tried to design a scenario like that for Chancellor Forever. In general, it doesn't work, but the 1987 general election would probably be a good choice in which the STV result would be close to the German PR result. The Irish STV electoral system is somewhere between the British and German systems in its effects, but that's not the main problem. We tend to have parties with under 5% of the vote getting plenty of seats. See the Progressive Democrats for the main example, but the Green Party at the moment is also in this category, and those two parties were part of the current coalition. You have to artificially boost their vote numbers to make them relevant, because that 5% threshold is hard-coded into Chancellor Forever, even CF2009, despite my request to TheorySpark to make it modifiable. There is also the problem that Sinn Féin gets far too many seats in a scenario compared to real life, and that is a consequence of using the German system instead of STV. Not many people give second or third preferences to Sinn Féin, but in the German system, only first preference matters.

So it's not because of STV that Ireland scenarios don't make sense. Northern Ireland also has STV, but you can design a decent scenario for NI because it has five substantial parties with support above 5%. However, you have mentioned the 1987 election, in which these assumptions do hold. So 1987 might not be that bad a project. Admittedly, you would lose the small left-wing parties' representation.

As for the AV system, you can't really represent PR-STV with it. The multi-seat aspect of PR-STV means it produces very different results from AV.

In summary: You're not going to be able to model the election correctly, but you might be able to simulate the national result to a reasonable degree of accuracy. Cosmetic details will also need to be abstracted, e.g. candidate names and constituencies will have to be invented. These big departures from realism are why I didn't design any Ireland scenarios, after some reflection.

[gopprogressive]

could you send me those Ireland scenarios?

[graemp]

The 2 existing Ireland scenarios 2002 and '2006' were designed for C4E and the ridings make no sense if run in PM4E as I assume the data was 'concocted' to give something that looked about right in C4E.

Without having ever played C4E, I would have thought that if you were looking to devise an Irish scenario it could be more accurately done in PM4E than C4E but probably play better as a game in C4E.

So, when I do the 1987 I will do 2 sets of ridings, one for use with PM4E and one for C4E. Perhaps then people will give the definitive of what works best.

[matvail2002]

Will the best thing to do is just to do like the Scotland scenario which had good proportionnal results with PM4E with Regional Seats?

Also, I heard on the BC-STV presentation that a party which have less than 10% in total have a very minimal of winning any seats. Is this true with the STV system in Ireland?

[gopprogressive]

Could anyone with those scenarios please send them to me (kurtsg@umich.edu)?

Thanks

[graemp]

Will the best thing to do is just to do like the Scotland scenario which had good proportionnal results with PM4E with Regional Seats?

Also, I heard on the BC-STV presentation that a party which have less than 10% in total have a very minimal of winning any seats. Is this true with the STV system in Ireland?

I think Scotland's electoral system is like the German system so I assume would be good for C4E. I don't have the Scots scenario anymore, perhaps you could send it to me and I'll take a look at it.

The best (fairest) STV systems have between 4 and 6 members per riding. [ireland has 3-5 which is okay] Any party hoping to win one seat in a 5 member riding will need a candidate to poll 17% including transfers. A candidate might poll 15% in 1st preference votes and fail to win a seat whereas a candidate that wins 5% in 1st preference votes could still win a seat. The key is vote transfers. I assume that BC-STV follows the general principals of STV (if it didn't then you might as well use AV, which of course is not a PR system)and that therefore the presentations claim is sort of correct, accepting of course that it is not about party votes but candidate votes.

[Patine]

Could anyone with those scenarios please send them to me (kurtsg@umich.edu)?

Thanks

Check your e-mail in-box.

[matvail2002]

I think Scotland's electoral system is like the German system so I assume would be good for C4E. I don't have the Scots scenario anymore, perhaps you could send it to me and I'll take a look at it.

Even through it is for C4E, the game is more realistic with PM4E as they are just too many seats for C4E.

[matvail2002]

I think Scotland's electoral system is like the German system so I assume would be good for C4E. I don't have the Scots scenario anymore, perhaps you could send it to me and I'll take a look at it.

The best (fairest) STV systems have between 4 and 6 members per riding. [ireland has 3-5 which is okay] Any party hoping to win one seat in a 5 member riding will need a candidate to poll 17% including transfers. A candidate might poll 15% in 1st preference votes and fail to win a seat whereas a candidate that wins 5% in 1st preference votes could still win a seat. The key is vote transfers. I assume that BC-STV follows the general principals of STV (if it didn't then you might as well use AV, which of course is not a PR system)and that therefore the presentations claim is sort of correct, accepting of course that it is not about party votes but candidate votes.

So you are saying that the Australian AV system would make the game more realist to simulate STV with 4-6 members per riding?

If that, we should make a British Columbia STV scenario if the may 2009 referendum had passed on (or even Malta), which would be awesome as some regions are very large.

See here for the map and a very well made simulation.

These are the regions which their numbers of seats:

Cariboo-Thompson: 5 seats

Columbia-Kootenay: 4 seats

Okanagan - Shuswap: 4 seats

Okanagan - Boundary: 3 seats

Northwest: 3 seats

North Central: 3 seats

Northeast: 2 seats

North Island - South Coast: 4 seats

Mid-Island: 4 seats

Capital Region: 7 seats

Tri-Cities: 4 seats

Richmond - Delta: 5 seats

Vancouver West: 6 seats

Vancouver East: 5 seats

Burnaby - New Westminster: 5 seats

North Shore - Sea to Sky: 4 seats

Richmond - Delta: 5 seats

Surrey North: 4 seats

Surrey South: 4 seats

Fraser Valley West: 4 seats

Fraser Valley East: 5 seats

[graemp]

So you are saying that the Australian AV system would make the game more realist to simulate STV with 4-6 members per riding?

If that, we should make a British Columbia STV scenario if the may 2009 referendum had passed on

Possibly yes.

That would be a good idea. I want to see how it works for Ireland first.

It would be easier to produce the ridings file for an election which had already taken place under that system.

My idea is in a 5 member riding to always make Seat 1 the safest and seat 5 the most marginal. This is what reduces the battleground as it it unlikely that no seat other than seat 5 and possibly seat 4 would change hands.

[gopprogressive]

Anyone up for me changing the 2006 scenario to 2007? I would need the logo to be changed to 2007 though.

[Treasurer]

Anyone up for me changing the 2006 scenario to 2007? I would need the logo to be changed to 2007 though.

I can do that for you.

[gopprogressive]

Thanks Treasurer, you will also need to change the 2002 logo from 2006 to 2002 as well.

I'll see if there are any other changes I should make as well. Mr. Gaffney- being an Ireland expert, what would you suggest?

[EGaffney]

Thanks Treasurer, you will also need to change the 2002 logo from 2006 to 2002 as well.

I'll see if there are any other changes I should make as well. Mr. Gaffney- being an Ireland expert, what would you suggest?

Here is a list of things that are relevant to the scenario files. I took these from my work on this scenario when I tried it.

- Ireland has similar radio/TV advertising rules to the UK. So there are no radio/TV campaigns in the American sense, but there are party political broadcasts.

- Ireland has no motto.

- Your parties should be something like:

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Green

Sinn Féin

Progressive Democrats

Socialist

Independent

- Endorsements aren't very common, but try the following:

Irish Independent: centre, all issues, lean FF

Evening Herald: centre, all issues, open

Sunday Tribune: centre-left, all issues, lean Labour

Sunday Business Post: centre-right, all issues, open

- Some events:

2007-4-27: Bertie Ahern cash allegations re-surface, increase Corruption issue profile

2007-4-28: Election begins

2007-5-4: Progressive Democrats leader says they might leave the FF-PD coalition, increase Corruption issue profile

2007-5-5: PD leader backs down, hit the party HARD on some issue, like -3 on right-wing Healthcare or something

2007-5-7: NI Assembly re-opens, increase Northern Ireland issue profile

2007-5-14: Sinn Féin flip-flops on income and corporation tax policies, hit them hard.

2007-5-17: The debate. RL result was a strong victory for Ahern over Kenny, so strong that it seems to have caused a >5% swing back to FF.

2007-5-24: Election Day

Other things happened too, but those events created the election narrative.

- Regional centres: Ireland doesn't have an easy left-right cleavage, but this is a good approximation:

Economic: North Dublin - Rural areas - Urban areas - South Dublin

Social: South Dublin - North Dublin - Urban areas - Rural areas

- Inverviewers:

Prime Time 3 2

Question And Answers 2 2

Morning Ireland 3 3

Ireland AM 1 1

Polls Apart 1 2

RTÉ Six One News 3 2

- Some suggested issues:

Agriculture and Fishing, Alcohol, Budget Surplus, Business and Industry, Children's Rights, Civil Unions, Corruption, Crime, Education, Environment, Foreign Policy, Healthcare, Income Tax, Northern Ireland, Stamp Duty

- Initial economy: 4

[EGaffney]

One more detail. Here are hints for the party issue positions.

Fianna Fáil: Economic Centre-Right, Social Centre-Right

Fine Gael: Economic Centre, Social Centre

Labour: Economic Centre-Left, Social Centre-Left

Green: Economic Centre-Left, Social Centre-Left

Sinn Féin: Economic Left, Social Centre

Progressive Democrats: Economic Right, Social Centre

Socialist: Economic Left, Social Left

Independent: Economic Centre-Left, Social Centre-Right

These should be put into context. In 2007, Economic Centre-Left meant "only promised a 2% cut to the standard rate of income tax". The Green Party cared far more about the environment than the other parties, as you may have guessed. No-one cared about immigration in 2007; Social issues were more like children's rights, gay marriage/civil partnerships, abortion and crime. We often say that Irish politics doesn't have a left-right divide, but in reality we just don't have a strong socialist party like other European countries do. Fine Gael promised things like universal health insurance and more teachers at the last election, while Fianna Fáil promised tax cuts and bigger state pensions, so it's clear that one is more conventionally to the left than the other.

[graemp]

1987

The Ireland 1987 scenario I am doing seems to be going okay but the battleground does look a bit narrow.

I am always fussy about how these things look and need some help with graphics, specifically;

1980s portraits of Dick Spring, Dessie O'Malley and the tall WP bloke whose name escapes me. This one of spring is dated 2001 but looks earlier to me

I havn't started the issue positions but will obviously use 2002 as a starting point. Can anyone such as you Gaffers suggest any changes that I would need to make.

1918

I'm planning a scenario of elections to the 1st Dail. Period graphics help needed for IPP and Sinn Fein logo and a portait of Dillon with a grey beard would be good, hopefully better than this one

Here's the map

[EGaffney]

I will be delighted to play the 1987 election. I'll try to get you graphics, but I imagine it will be difficult to get contemporary ones, especially of the leader of the Sinn Féin/Official Sinn Féin/Republican Clubs/Sinn Féin The Workers Party/Workers Party/New Agenda/Democratic Left (delete as appropriate). I will also try to help with 1918 - the problem with the early elections is that they were landslides for either the IPP or Sinn Féin.

Changes from 2007:

In 1987, the economy was still really bad. Emigration was high. The big issue was the budget. Labour left their coalition with Fine Gael over budget cuts (it was pretty much just an election stunt, they left when an election was imminent anyway). Fianna Fáil, the opposition, also savaged the government about budget cuts (but totally U-turned after they won the election). The PDs wanted big tax cuts and even bigger spending cuts. The Workers Party was basically a Soviet front group, the Commies bought them. ALLEGEDLY. Social issues were also big. Back then, Fine Gael was definitely more liberal than Fianna Fáil, which was very conservative by modern Western standards, opposing liberalisation of contraception (which was legal) and the legalisation of divorce, abortion and homosexuality (which were illegal). Labour, PDs and Workers Party wanted constitutional change on issues like church and state, civil rights and the Irish claim to Northern Ireland in the Constitution.

FF Economic C, Social CR

FG Economic CR, Social C

Lab Economic CL, Social CL

PD Economic R, Social CL

WP Economic L, Social CL

For issues, try this website: http://irishelectionliterature.wordpress.com/ - but I don't think you can sort by year, so maybe you can search for 1987.

[graemp]

I will also try to help with 1918 - the problem with the early elections is that they were landslides for either the IPP or Sinn Féin.

Thanks. The problem with 1918 is not so much that of the 105 seats, only 13 ended up with majorities under 15%, but that it is difficult to determine a starting point as there were no opinion polls at the start of the campaign and most of the ridings were uncontested at the previous election.

I was able to design 1910 with about 22 ridings with majorities under 15% but then 1910 has Britain to add interest to the scenario. 1918 just needs greater artistic licence.

[graemp]

Ireland 1918

Coming Soon

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[Patine]

Ireland 1918

Coming Soon

To be added to my Scenario Request Email List, either post your email here or PM me.

You know my e-mail.