2008 US scenario COMPLETED

[pilight]

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=GNJ2B9V3

Been working on this for a while. It's an historical scenario, with some elements borrowed from the various Gold Scenarios.

DEMOCRATS

Hillary Clinton

Barack Obama

John Edwards

Bill Richardson

Joe Biden

Chris Dodd

Dennis Kucinich

REPUBLICANS

John McCain

Mitt Romney

Mike Huckabee

Rudy Giuliani

Fred Thompson

Ron Paul

Duncan Hunter

LIBERTARIANS

Bob Barr

Mary Ruwart

Wayne Allyn Root

Mike Gravel

George Phillies

Steve Kubby

Mike Jingozian

Christine Smith

GREEN

Cynthia McKinney

Kat Swift

Kent Mesplay

Jesse Johnson

CONSTITUTION

Chuck Baldwin

Alan Keyes (off by default)

INDEPENDENT

Ralph Nader

Space Bar testing has given fairly realistic results without being predictable. McCain gets the Republican nomination most of the time, though Rommey, Giuliani, and Huckabee have all pulled it out on occasion. Clinton and Obama split the Democratic nomination about 50/50 (Clinton actually won a little over half of the test runs). Democrats won the great majority of the general elections, including every time Obama was the nominee. Smaller parties also end with results pretty close to reality in Space Bar tests.

Hope you like it!

[Patine]

Some endorsers I'd add, if you feel up to it, are the Speaker and majority and minority leaders and whips of the House, all those newspapers that appear in the TheorySpark 2008 scenario, and the living ex-presidents (Clinton and Carter for the Dems, and the Bushes for the GOP). Otherwise it looks very good! I'll give it a full try shortly.

[Cyril Washbrook]

I'd question a couple of attributes. Obama's debating improved by the general election, but back in 2007 he was actually quite poor - causing a considerable amount of anxiety among his staffers - and made his fair share of gaffes. You've started the game at 1 December, so he had started to hone his debating technique, but I'd still give him a 3 at that stage. I'm also not sure why Clinton's integrity would be at 2 which is the same as, say, Romney. Romney flip-flopped on several issues between his time as MA governor and presidential candidate; Clinton was regarded as "divisive", but I'm not sure why that would harm her integrity score. Clinton also proved to be a robust campaigner over a long primaries race, which would suggest that she deserves a stamina rating of at least 4, and probably 5. That said, perhaps I'm being nitpicky: the scenario looks pretty good, so I'll take it for a spin.

[pilight]

Some endorsers I'd add, if you feel up to it, are the Speaker and majority and minority leaders and whips of the House, all those newspapers that appear in the TheorySpark 2008 scenario, and the living ex-presidents (Clinton and Carter for the Dems, and the Bushes for the GOP). Otherwise it looks very good! I'll give it a full try shortly.

I just don't think newspaper endorsements matter that much anymore. The senators and governors have campaign infrastructure within their state, which naturally abstracts as footsoldiers. The Speaker and other House leaders are possibilities, but even there the influence they have is pretty limited.

I'd question a couple of attributes. Obama's debating improved by the general election, but back in 2007 he was actually quite poor - causing a considerable amount of anxiety among his staffers - and made his fair share of gaffes. You've started the game at 1 December, so he had started to hone his debating technique, but I'd still give him a 3 at that stage. I'm also not sure why Clinton's integrity would be at 2 which is the same as, say, Romney. Romney flip-flopped on several issues between his time as MA governor and presidential candidate; Clinton was regarded as "divisive", but I'm not sure why that would harm her integrity score. Clinton also proved to be a robust campaigner over a long primaries race, which would suggest that she deserves a stamina rating of at least 4, and probably 5

The candidate attributes were taken pretty much as is from the Gold scenario.