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It may seems a little bit prematured, but this could make a good prospective scenario.


While Rudd is riding high in the opinion polls, an early election (which, to be called this early, would have to be a double dissolution) is a very real possibility, as various journalists like to speculate.

Peter Costello, however, wrote an interesting op-ed piece in today's The Age, regarding this possibility: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/rudd-is-in-a-double-dissolution-dilemma-20090922-g0h4.html

In addition to the factors Costello mentions as to why Rudd may wish to not call an early election, it is important to remember that the states of Queensland and New South Wales are currently in the process of a redistribution - Queensland gaining an electorate and New South Wales losing one.

The redistribution has almost been finalised, but it hasn't quite finished yet. I believe that if an election is called before the final boundaries are published, the election would be fought in those two states on the old boundaries, with an additional rule - in NSW, the Electoral Commission would sum the number of electors in every combination of two adjacent seats, and the two that combined are the least would be contested as one seat. In Queensland, they would perform the same operation - summing the number of electors in the various adjacent seats, and the two seats with the highest enrollment would be combined and then split into three seats. From what I have read on Anthony Green's website, this would benefit the Liberal Opposition in both states. Additionally, the Electoral Commission's draft boundaries (unlikely to be changed substantially prior to the redistribution being finalised) will substantially improve Labor's standing - Labor will see a net gain of five seats on the redistribution and will see a decrease in the number of marginal electorates they hold (in other words, Labor's marginal seats will, on average, become safer). For this reason, I believe Rudd will almost certainly prefer to contest the next election on the new boundaries.

Once the redistribution is finalised - 15 December 2009 for Queensland and 22 December 2009 for NSW - it then is tabled in Parliament, which won't be until Parliament sits... which won't be between 22 December 2009 and New Year's Day - indeed, probably not until late January or early February 2010 (to be precise, last day of sitting this year is 26 November, next year's sitting dates have not yet been determined). As such, it is unlikely there will be an election this year. After tabling the Redistribution Report, the various parties will be able to complete their preselections for seats in Queensland and New South Wales. This takes time - the parties usually have by-laws and regulations that generally state that nominations must remain open for a certain length of time, although if there is an early election called, the parties usually have rules that allow for a central committee to choose candidates in a shorter space of time. Nonetheless, it is probably likely that Rudd will wait until the Labor Party has been able to preselect candidates for their seats. This will be especially important in NSW, where a safe Labor seat is being abolished in the redistribution and the sitting member will need to ensure he gets a new seat. I suspect this means that we won't be seeing an election called until probably April, maybe March, but likely April. That doesn't really give enough time for an election campaign and results to be finalised before the budget in May. That leads back in to what Costello was saying about Rudd probably holding off until after the budget. If he does that, according to the Constitution, he can't have a Double Dissolution election.

That's my thought, anyway, although plenty of journalists disagree with me and think that it's more likely. It's always a possibility, and therefore an interesting potential scenario for PM4E.

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I think Peter Costello seemed better suited as a leader for the Liberals. Also, in a strange matter, I also find Rudd to be more socially conservative than Howard.

However, could somebody please tell me which regions in Australia are more ''left-wing'' and ''right-wing'' both in state and federal elections?

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I think Peter Costello seemed better suited as a leader for the Liberals. Also, in a strange matter, I also find Rudd to be more socially conservative than Howard.

However, could somebody please tell me which regions in Australia are more ''left-wing'' and ''left-wing'' both in state and federal elections?

I was always a fan of Costello, I'd have liked for him to take over, but I can understand why he didn't want to.

I've sent you a Personal Message. I have a few interesting maps, if you'd like I can email them to you.

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  • 2 months later...

I've started working on an "Australia 2010 - Double Dissolution" scenario in light of the craziness over the past couple weeks. I'll have to use the old boundaries and, for the most part, the 2007 candidates for now.

For the Senate, I'm basically creating a bunch of uncontested "ridings" that Labor and the Coalition split, then a smaller number with closer races between Labor, the Coalition, and the smaller parties. There's no real way to replicate the Australian senate system that I can see, even with the C4E engine, so I'm just trying to duplicate the number of votes cast and seats per party as best as possible. Right now I'm just doing each province as a region for the Senate, but I'm not sure if that will work for the smaller parties, which IRL do not necessarily have to appeal to the center to win a few Senate seats - I may end up creating smaller sub-regions of strong left-wing or right-wing voters.

Also, the whole thing will have to be tallied as if it were a single chamber, though there will be separate map areas for House and Senate races.

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