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Why does momentum count for nothing?


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I was playing an alternative of the wonk scenario, where I've given the candidates money similar to what they raised overall in the campaign. As Obama, I'm facing Romney in the general election. From mid-September on, boosted by the financial crisis and heavy television advertising on my part, I hold a constant momentum lead, around 10 points, going as high as 20 points (that's the margin). Throughout the last half of October, I ad-bomb and scandal-plague Romney, and his momentum is consistently negative.

But the polls never move in my direction. And in the end I win the popular vote by 1.2% (49.8% to 48.6%) but he takes around 290 electoral college votes.

No matter how high I kept my momentum, key states wouldn't move my way.

Now, I wouldn't want the momentum meter to have a 1:1 correlation with poll movement, but there should be SOME relation. Measuring momentum is the only tool we have between polling updates to see if what we're doing is worthwhile. So why can I keep a massive momentum advantage going my way, only to end up falling in key states (where my momentum was, according to the meters, great), and losing the election?

This was on medium.

There should be a stronger correlation between momentum and poll movement.

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I don't understand how it works myself, but there is a lack of direct relationship between momentum and making gains, where there are probably more factors at work. There are times i have played scenarios and my momentum is up nationally, and don't get anywhere, there's a feeling your stuck in a rut as maybe i didn't get endorsed enough and use my ads more wiser perhaps. I would say try to win over more endorsers, spin more if you don't feel your getting what you want, spinning negative stories against your main rivals (100%)and scandals against you, as well as Policy speeches against your main rivals in that certain state. Always good to aim speeches at not only at the main rival nationwide, but 3rd or 4th parties may be stealing some vital votes, if your playing any busy primaries that is. Spread your use of ads sensibly throughout the campaign. Also, changing the theme to be more on the offensive may help as well, this is where you have i.e. Leadership/Bush Integrity/Bush Experience/Bush, keep those themes but use 1 or 2 attacking certain candidates. I'm not sure how that is effective that is, but i do it anyway. Also, create spies and unleash them onto candidates to leak scandals. You have to do a bit of everything but it depends on the strength of your candidate as well. Hope this helps.

Also creating footsoldiers from the footsoldiers button. This creates a foundation of maintaining or upping your support when you are not in that region, which is especially good as there may be so many marginals to command elsewhere.

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My guess based on the description: once undecideds are gone, it is difficult to gain voters just because you have positive momentum. Your opponent(s) also need negative momentum, which creates undecideds, which you can then convert with your positive momentum.

Hope this helps,

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