Redoing UK election 2005

[gopprogressive]

Hey all,

I'm going to modify Treasurer of the PC's UK 2005 (more regions) so that it's more accurate to UK regionalism- and so the country isn't as left-wing as it is shown in the official 2005 scenario.

For example, almost all the regions are CL on the smoking ban- what reginos should be C or CR on it?

Any suggestions as to regionalism or anything?

Thanks,

GOP Progressive

[EGaffney]

I would suggest that you make the country pretty much unipolar. (i.e. regions that share centre or left or right opinions on all issues) The UK doesn't have the political diversity of the United States in terms of its regions. There aren't "libertarian" regions or anything like that. It pretty much goes from left-wing to right-wing on any bundle of issues you care to choose. So if you sort the regions by where the Tories do best, you have a good indication of which are left-wing and which are right-wing. I don't have that information at hand, though a good heuristic is that rural areas with big seats will be centre-right and urban areas (excluding Conservative areas of London) will be centre-left. The Midlands and other mixed areas, with lots of borough constituencies, would be centrist. A quick guide would be my own 2005 scenario - but I don't know if I coded regionalism into it!

[matvail2002]

Basically, the UK is very similar to Canada in term of political geography.

In England, the rural areas are mostly centre-right as per some affluent inner city ridings. Working class inner city ridings are more centre-left as certain regions where the labour movement is stronger but this is far less present than 20-25 years ago. Areas which have more immigrants than the average have a tendency to go Labour and the Lib Dems have a tendency to do well in University Towns or areas.

Some cities in the Midlands are considered swing regions between Labour and the Conservatives, so they are more centrist.

In Scotland, the cities (Glasgow and Edinburgh) are pretty much centre-left, which the rural regions a mixed bag between centre-left and more religious areas which are socially conservative and fiscally left-wing (especially in the islands). Personally, I never understood the demographics of SNP voters but I believe that they are the some as the Bloc Québécois (Nationalist and mostly centre-left, living in cities, small towns and rural areas)

In Wales, cities are mostly centre-left, but rural areas are more nationalist in scope (in Welsh language preservation and such), but have some socially conservative values.

[EGaffney]

Basically, the UK is very similar to Canada in term of political geography.

In England, the rural areas are mostly centre-right as per some affluent inner city ridings. Working class inner city ridings are more centre-left as certain regions where the labour movement is stronger but this is far less present than 20-25 years ago. Areas which have more immigrants than the average have a tendency to go Labour and the Lib Dems have a tendency to do well in University Towns or areas.

Some cities in the Midlands are considered swing regions between Labour and the Conservatives, so they are more centrist.

In Scotland, the cities (Glasgow and Edinburgh) are pretty much centre-left, which the rural regions a mixed bag between centre-left and more religious areas which are socially conservative and fiscally left-wing (especially in the islands). Personally, I never understood the demographics of SNP voters but I believe that they are the some as the Bloc Québécois (Nationalist and mostly centre-left, living in cities, small towns and rural areas)

In Wales, cities are mostly centre-left, but rural areas are more nationalist in scope (in Welsh language preservation and such), but have some socially conservative values.

Your analysis of England is correct. The affluent city seats are not present in large numbers anywhere except London, so they don't really change the broad political opinions of the area.

In Scotland, Edinburgh is indeed centre-left, but Glasgow is probably the most left-wing city in the UK due to extreme poverty. The Borders and Grampian regions behave like English rural areas. SNP voters are very broad in their nature, and their support has doubled since 2005. The traditional image is that the SNP attracted Protestant voters and not Catholics (Scottish sectarianism), but that is certainly changing. Also, the left-wing views of the past have been moderated by the fact that the SNP's parliamentary party has, from 1997 on, represented seats they took from the Tories when their vote collapsed, rather than traditionally left-wing rural areas. The SNP tends to win by-elections in many places, but it doesn't tend to hold seats in urban areas for very long.

Wales is very strongly Labour, even in rural areas. In fact, in any given year, the Conservatives are more likely to hold seats in Cardiff than in the valleys of Glamorgan. The real divide is between South Wales (very traditional Labour), North Wales (strongly Labour, but not so much) and Mid/West Wales (diverse, 4 parties hold seats).

[matvail2002]

Thanks for your analysis! I always thought that some Northern England cities (especially Leeds and Bradford) were more left-wing in scope than Glasgow.

Just a question, I played a little bit of both available scenarios for Ireland and it seems to my understanding that the different regions (except maybe South Dublin) do not seems to be very much politically polarized as the two main parties are both trying to capture the same type of electorate.

Am I right with this affirmation?

[matvail2002]

BTW, an interesting look for the minor parties strength in the UK is found in the last Euro elections results map:

[EGaffney]

Thanks for your analysis! I always thought that some Northern England cities (especially Leeds and Bradford) were more left-wing in scope than Glasgow.

Just a question, I played a little bit of both available scenarios for Ireland and it seems to my understanding that the different regions (except maybe South Dublin) do not seems to be very much politically polarized as the two main parties are both trying to capture the same type of electorate.

Am I right with this affirmation?

Leeds and Bradford are complicated. Each has seats which could fall to the Conservatives at the next election. For instance, Bradford West is Conservative target no. 60. Leeds and particularly Bradford also have large Muslim populations, so even though Labour does well among minority groups, votes often depend on ethnicity of candidates. Finally, there isn't a significant presence by the minor left parties in either city, unlike say London or Birmingham.

Ireland has weak regional polarisation. All 5 Dáil parties have seats in both urban and rural areas. The two main parties were factions of the old nationalist party which took different sides during the civil war, so they don't have an ideological base. Therefore, they both tend towards the political centre.

[gopprogressive]

Anyways- I'm going to change labour's position on the Iraq War to CR rather than C, because the current scenario assumes voters will leave the Tories due to Iraq- even though IR people left the Labour party due to Iraq.

Also which parts of the UK should be most opposed to the smoking ban?

[EGaffney]

Anyways- I'm going to change labour's position on the Iraq War to CR rather than C, because the current scenario assumes voters will leave the Tories due to Iraq- even though IR people left the Labour party due to Iraq.

Also which parts of the UK should be most opposed to the smoking ban?

Iraq position change is a good idea.

Rural areas have more of the entertainment scene based in pubs. The ban should be a left-wing policy, so urban areas will support it and rural areas will oppose it.

[gopprogressive]

Right, sounds good.

[matvail2002]

One thing about economic issues which bugs me.

Which regions in the UK are basically more right and left wing on economic issues and mainly on income taxes and poll taxes?

Also, how is Northern Ireland and the Scottish Highlands on social and economic issues, as I find many contradictions in different scenario?

[Treasurer]

I'm pretty sure Northern Ireland is more right wing on social issues than the Highlands especially Crime & Punishment and Immigration. Not too sure about economic issues, but it will vary according to whether it's rural ulster(conservative values) or urban dwelling in Belfast and in the west of NI, such as Londonderry perhaps. I would regard left wing parts of NI as more socialist, but the Highlands would be more traditional liberal values. I'm sure somebody else can give a better explanation.

[EGaffney]

One thing about economic issues which bugs me.

Which regions in the UK are basically more right and left wing on economic issues and mainly on income taxes and poll taxes?

Also, how is Northern Ireland and the Scottish Highlands on social and economic issues, as I find many contradictions in different scenario?

"Economic issues" is more or less a straight North-South divide, with the North, Wales and Northern Ireland to the left because their economies are most dependent on government money, and the South East to the right because they lose more money through tax than they do with spending. Central London would be an exception. The Midlands would probably be in the centre.

Northern Ireland is the most conservative part of the UK. They don't have abortion, lots of places are closed on Sundays, etc. But on economic issues, their economy is 65% public sector, so they don't mind a high-tax economy as long as they get a large share.

Highlands is a very small region of Scotland, where they elect their politicians based on personal loyalty as much as party. This is confusing because on the map it looks like a huge Liberal bastion, but in reality it is sparsely populated even if the liberal tradition is resilient. On social issues they would be centre or centre-right, and I'm not sure on economic issues. But in most scenarios, the Highlands will be overwhelmed within their province by cities like Aberdeen, Dundee and even Edinburgh and Glasgow in some games, so it's only in county-by-county maps that the issue position really matters.