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2012 Free-For-All


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I have an idea for a scenario, and I'd like some help creating it. I've been trying to make it, but I have no experience whatsoever creating scenarios, and I've had some trouble with it. Anyway, here's the basic idea:

Obama's popularity has declined sharply. The Republicans made picked up seats in the Senate, retook the House, and made major gains in the Gubernatorial elections during the 2010 mid-terms. In addition, Obama face strong challenges from within his own party. All of this would normally make the 2012 election a easy win for the Republicans, but...

American public opinion against the two-party system is growing. The Democrats' decline and the feelings of some conservatives that the Republicans simply use and abuse them, has led to some stronger than normal "third parties."

I'm envisioning some states that might not normally be in play coming into play because of this odd political landscape.

Here's my working list of candidates:

Republican

Richard Burr

Haley Barbour

Eric Cantor

Newt Gingrich

Mike Huckabee

Bobby Jindal

Gary Johnson

Sarah Palin

Tim Pawlenty

Mitt Romney

Michael Steele

John Thune

Democrat

Evan Bayh

Hillary Clinton

Tom Daschle

Barack Obama

Nancy Pelosi

Harry Reid

Bill Richardson

Brian Schweitzer

Mark Warner

Green

Matt Gonzalez

Jesse Johnson

Winona Laduke

Cynthia McKinney

Kent Mesplay

Ralph Nader

Kat Swift

Libertarian

Bob Barr

Michael Badnarik

Mike Gravel

Steve Kubby

Ron Paul

George Phillies

Wayne Allyn Root

Mary Ruwart

Constitution

Alan Keyes

Chuck Baldwin

Darrell Castle

Michael Peroutka

Howard Phillips

Independence Party

Jesse Ventura

Independent

Michael Bloomberg

Socialist

Stewart Alexander

Mary Alice Herbert

Brian Moore

Reform

David Collison

Ezola B. Foster

Frank McEnulty

Ted Weill

Candidate notes:

Nader - I know he hasn't been associated with the Greens in the last couple of election cycles, but I certainly felt that he would make the party a little more viable.

Gravel - I know he'll be as old as dirt by the time the 2012 election rolls around, but he does have relatively high name recognition, so I thought the idea made sense for this scenario.

Ron Paul: Although he has said that he wouldn't run third party, his presence here certainly makes things more interesting, and in the political environment in this scenario it seemed to make sense.

Party notes:

Republican and Democrat - Still the dominant parties, but I have an idea of the third-parties polling with a few points, and maybe some particularly strong candidates making a few states "interesting."

Constitution - Maybe before his Illinois Senate race fiasco Keyes could have been a viable strong candidate, but I had a hard time coming up with one for this scenario. I'd love to get some input.

Independence - From what little I know about the party, Ventura seemed like a logical fit, but I had a hard time coming up with any other candidates. I really feel like at least a couple more are needed.

Reform and Socialist - I don't necesarily see these two parties as being particularly strong, but I just felt like throwing a couple more wrenches into the works.

So, that's a bit of what I'm thinking. Any thoughts?

BTW, please don't get upset about the idea of Obama's popularity tanking or the Republican takeover being mentioned in the introduction. The Republicans have to be stronger than they are now, and Obama needs to be weak enough to allow a Democrat primary for this to really be a "free-for-all."

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Here are some ideas for issues:

Leadership

Integrity

Experience

Issue Familiarity

Abortion

Afghanistan

Bailouts

Balanced Budget

Business Regulation

Education

Energy

Environment

Gun Control

Health Care

Homeland Security

Immigration

Iran

North Korea

Same-Sex Marriage

Social Security

Taxes

War on Terror

Again, this is a working list. Any suggestions for changes would be welcome. For that matter, so would ideas for position descriptions.

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Sounds great, I'd love to help out in any way possible. Here's some additional candidates that could make things even more interesting (with the help of Paul #2)

Republican

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul- After being elected to the senate in 2010 Rand quickly made it known that his political philosophies were very different then his father's. Although still a small government favoring republican, he has proven to be much less of one then his father.

Former Missouri Senator and Governor Kit Bond- The 2 term governor and 4 term senator from Missouri is one of the most experienced and well known Midwestern Republicans.

Democrat

Congressman Dennis Kucinich- The hard left democrat has announced he will run for the presidency for a third time.

Constitution

Cardinal Raymond Burk- The American cardinal, the second highest attainable rank, is a well known hard line catholic. After researching into the Constitution Party he became strongly supportive of it's ideas. Having asked and received permission from the pope to run for president he should now make quite the interesting candidate.

Reform

Businessman Henry Ross Perot, Jr.- The son of party founder Ross Perot and his namesake, Henry Ross Perot Jr. now hopes to make a splash on the political scene similar to that of his father and perhaps even win.

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I can't believe I left out Kucinich. He's like the modern day Lyndon Larouche.

I like the suggestions. I was also wondering if maybe the Reform and Independence paties should be combined. So with all of that in mind, here's a new candiadte list

Republican

Haley Barbour

Kit Bond

Richard Burr

Eric Cantor

Charlie Crist

Newt Gingrich

Mike Huckabee

Bobby Jindal

Gary Johnson

Sarah Palin

Rand Paul

Tim Pawlenty

Rick Perry

Mitt Romney

Michael Steele

John Thune

(That maxes out Republican candidates doesn't it?)

Democrat

Evan Bayh

Hillary Clinton

Tom Daschle

Dennis Kucinich

Barack Obama

Nancy Pelosi

Harry Reid

Bill Richardson

Brian Schweitzer

Mark Warner

Green

Matt Gonzalez

Jesse Johnson

Winona Laduke

Cynthia McKinney

Kent Mesplay

Ralph Nader

Kat Swift

Libertarian

Bob Barr

Michael Badnarik

Mike Gravel

Steve Kubby

Ron Paul

George Phillies

Wayne Allyn Root

Mary Ruwart

Constitution

Chuck Baldwin

Raymond Burk

Darrell Castle

Alan Keyes

Michael Peroutka

Howard Phillips

Reform

David Collison

Ezola B. Foster

Frank McEnulty

H. Ross Perot, Jr.

Jesse Ventura

Ted Weill

Socialist

Stewart Alexander

Mary Alice Herbert

Brian Moore

Bernie Sanders (Makes the party a stronger, certainly a force in Vermont.)

Independent

Michael Bloomberg

Any thoughts?

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I've been thinking about the areas in which each party would be the strongest, and here's what I'm thinking:

Republicans - the South and West

Democrats - Northeast and West Coast

Of course, both of those are just like real life...

Greens - Probably the West Coast as was mentioned earlier

Libertarians - The West, i.e. the Rocky Mountain States

Constitution - The South

Reform - Upper Midwest esp. Minnesota/Wisconsin (again as mentioned earlier)

Socialist - Again going with the earlier suggestion, the Rust Belt, but also Vermont (especially with the self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist Sanders included), also some limited support along the West Coast.

Bloomberg - Northeast, particularly New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut.

I haven't started working on percentages yet. That and issue positions would probably be a good next step I figure. Anyone interested in helping?

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Okay, here's a start for some issue positions:

Abortion

Far-Left All forms of abortion on demand.

Left Ban partial-birth abortion.

Center-Left Allow abortion during the first and second trimesters.

Center Allow individual States to allow or ban abortion.

Center-Right Allow abortion in cases of rape, incest, and to protect the mother's life.

Right Allow abortion only to protect the mother's life.

Far-Right Abortion is murder. Total ban on all forms of abortion.

Afghanistan

Far-Left Immediately remove all troops from Afghanistan and pay reparations.

Left Immediately remove troops from Afghanistan.

Center-Left Begin a gradual troop reduction. Set a withdrawal deadline.

Center Rebuild Afghanistan through the U.N.

Center-Right Keep troops in Afghanistan until security can be established.

Right Complete the mission. Drive out the Taliban.

Far-Right Establish a large permanent military presence in Afghanistan.

Bailouts

Far-Left The government should takeover business.

Left The government should spend as much money as necesary to bailout failing businesses.

Center-Left Bailout businesses that are "too big to fail."

Center Bailout important businesses in vital sectors of the economy.

Center-Right Only bailout important businesses that are viable and can eventually repay the money.

Right No bailouts. Allow businesses to restructure through bankruptcy.

Far-Right No bailouts. Keep the fderal government out of the private sector altogether.

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A couple of things that came to mind:

Constitution: Even in a fictional/alt-history scenario like this, I'd have second thoughts about including Archbishop Burke (who isn't a Cardinal unless he gets the "red hat" in the alternate history). Burke just got put in charge of the Vatican's top ecclesiastical court about a year ago, and incumbents there usually stay at least 4-5 years - not to mention that the Vatican pulled the plug on politician-priests around 1980. If mere priests cause that much trouble, I'd think an archbishop (and possible future "prince of the Church") would be a non-starter.

In his place could be Randall Terry, who could have a better backstory after the controversy at Notre Dame.

Dems: I could see a possibility where a conservative Dem/Blue Dog (a classic Southern Democrat, even more conservative than Bayh or Warner - a pro-lifer, even) would run a centrist campaign after Obama goes downhill - an anti-Kucinich, if you will. Two possibilities I can think of from my home state (but both nationally feasible, under the circumstances):

Rep. (Sen.?) Charlie Melancon (D-LA-6): The current real-world Blue Dog Communications Chair, Melancon [choose one: beat scandal-plagued Sen. Vitter in 2010/narrowly lost to Vitter/led the Blue Dog revolt in the House that scuttled Obama's healthcare (or other high-spending) agenda] - can he parlay his newfound notoriety [a la Thune] into success on the national stage despite his pro-gun, pro-life, and anti-gay marriage positions?

Sen. John Breaux (D-LA): The centrist Senator par excellence during his three terms in the Senate (1987-2005), Breaux was legendary for his ability to garner support in key votes from both sides of the aisle - so much so, allegedly, that George W. Bush courted him to be his first Secretary of Agriculture. Except for dabbling in the '07 Louisiana Governor's race (where, had it not been for residence questions, he would have been the Dems' best hope against Bobby Jindal), he's been quiet since then, focusing on lobby work. However, for an America hungry for bi- (or multi-) partisanship, could Breaux be the man of the hour?

Both of these gentlemen improve Democrat chances in the South and other "reddish-purple" states, but it might come at the cost of ceding support to the left-wing third parties in more liberal states.

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All good points. I can't say that I knew any of that about Burke (I'm Baptist), so I think Terry does make more sense.

I think Melancon would be a good addition, as much as he and the blue-dogs have been in the news lately. He would certainly be more viable than the other current candidates in red states.

I'm also considering replacing one of the Republicans (Burr?) with Giuliani, as he would be stronger in blue states, and would certainly have a chance of stealing some in an election like this. (Imagine a Giuliani-Clinton-Bloomberg race in New York!)

You know, a scenario like this could be fun in a Prime Minister Forever scenario, as well. This would be an insane Congressional election.

New Candidate List:

Republican

Haley Barbour

Kit Bond

Eric Cantor

Charlie Crist

Newt Gingrich

Rudy Giuliani

Mike Huckabee

Bobby Jindal

Gary Johnson

Sarah Palin

Rand Paul

Tim Pawlenty

Rick Perry

Mitt Romney

Michael Steele

John Thune

Democrat

Evan Bayh

Hillary Clinton

Tom Daschle

Dennis Kucinich

Charlie Melancon

Barack Obama

Nancy Pelosi

Harry Reid

Bill Richardson

Brian Schweitzer

Mark Warner

Green

Matt Gonzalez

Jesse Johnson

Winona Laduke

Cynthia McKinney

Kent Mesplay

Ralph Nader

Kat Swift

Libertarian

Bob Barr

Michael Badnarik

Mike Gravel

Steve Kubby

Ron Paul

George Phillies

Wayne Allyn Root

Mary Ruwart

Constitution

Chuck Baldwin

Darrell Castle

Alan Keyes

Michael Peroutka

Howard Phillips

Randall Terry

Reform

David Collison

Ezola B. Foster

Frank McEnulty

H. Ross Perot, Jr.

Jesse Ventura

Ted Weill

Socialist

Stewart Alexander

Mary Alice Herbert

Brian Moore

Bernie Sanders

Independent

Michael Bloomberg

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One problem I just thought of... Isn't there a 32 candidate limit? It seems I remember reading that around here somewhere, and if so, we can't use all of the candidates listed. :(

You could make an argument for taking Nader out - he'll be 78 in 2012, and even perennial candidates have their limits. Gravel can definitely go - he announced his retirement from politics after losing the Libertarian nomination to Barr.

Bloomberg could be off by default - with all the hoops he's jumping through to get a third term in NYC, I doubt he'll run for President under any circumstances.

For the rest, you might just have to set up "house rules" depending on your prognostication of what happens between '09 and '12 in the alternate history (Palin and Richardson's ethics investigations, Daschle's tax problems, any other scandals between now and then).

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Since you suggest having Bloomberg off by default as part of the solution, does that mean that the scenario can have more than 32 candidates, but only 32 can be active? (Remember, I'm new to the world of scenario creation.)

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Since you suggest having Bloomberg off by default as part of the solution, does that mean that the scenario can have more than 32 candidates, but only 32 can be active? (Remember, I'm new to the world of scenario creation.)

Yes, it's how many that are active. You can actually have an unlimited number of 'off' candidates (as far as I know). The UK 2010 presidential election made use of this dynamic, as they had 50+ candidates total.

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I'd suggest that if this is a fictional scenario, why make up some party changes. say Perry and Palin are now with the Constitution Party, Gary Johnson and Rand Paul are Libertarians, Kucinich and Feingold are now Greens, and so on. Seems to me that we'll still have Senators and Governors in the established parties facing off with failed Congressional Candidates, one term City Councilmen, and Party Chairpersons.

And I'd say 75 is pushing it for any candidates age.

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I'd suggest that if this is a fictional scenario, why make up some party changes. say Perry and Palin are now with the Constitution Party, Gary Johnson and Rand Paul are Libertarians, Kucinich and Feingold are now Greens, and so on. Seems to me that we'll still have Senators and Governors in the established parties facing off with failed Congressional Candidates, one term City Councilmen, and Party Chairpersons.

And I'd say 75 is pushing it for any candidates age.

Well, if we're talking party switches, what about a party split?

Consider this storyline: the battle over [insert Obama/Pelosi policy item here, like healthcare] turns out to be the last straw for the Blue Dogs, who (despite a last-minute effort from Rahm Emanuel, who recruited many of them in '06 and '08) bolt from the Democratic Party. Along with some moderate Republicans (who feel squeezed out by the GOP's rightward turn) and some centrist Senators (Bayh? Warner? Landrieu? Snowe? Collins?), they merge with the rump of the Reform Party and run in 2012 against the Bush and Obama record on the deficit.

Not only would this be a viable third-party run (and by that, I mean Perot '92 or better), but it would definitely be enough of a vote split to put a lot of states into play, even for the other third parties (someone mentioned the Greens getting ~25% in CA, I believe - they would be in the thick of it in this situation). On top of that, we could reduce the Dem/GOP candidate lists, not to mention some third-party candidates who would have no chance in Hell in any universe, even this one.

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I'll have to consider some of those ideas. They could certainly make for an interesting scenario. The idea of some of the major centrist candidates forming a third party is an interesting idea. I certainly like the idea of some of the minor candidates of the major parties moving to third parties. That could be a good way of making them a bit more viable, and at the same time reducing the number of candidates.

So, let's say that the major conservatives stick with the Republicans the major liberals sitck with the Democrats, some of the centrists join the Refomr party, and some of the weaker candidates join some of the other parties. The, the Republicans and Democrats are still strong, but you have a very viable third party aand other parties quite capable of winning a few percentage points in the polls, stronger than that in certain regions.

I like that idea, but I'd like to get some more input. I'd like to make this a bit of a joint effort. I think it will be more fun with more people working on it. :)

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I think the Reform Party is dead and burried, no ballot access.

Why not take a hint from 1860, there were Northern and Southern Democrats as options on the ticket. The Northerners were Moderates and the Southerners...well they were the ones who became Confederates.

How about the Liberal Obama-Pelosi Democratic Party stays the same as well as the Donkey, and the Centrist party becomes the...The New Democratic Coalition (its a nod to Bill Clinton's group), and it is a coalition of dissatisfied Blue Dogs and Moderate Republicans, might I suggest these guys as part of it;

Evan Bayh

Mark Begich

Tim Kaine

Mark Warner

Olympia Snowe

Susan Collins

Harold Ford Jr.

Joe Lieberman

Bart Stupak

Jim Douglas

Tom Carper

just an idea...2012 will be Obama's reelection campaign and well. It would be pretty good having at least a Primary of some Democrats.

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I have an idea for a scenario, and I'd like some help creating it. I've been trying to make it, but I have no experience whatsoever creating scenarios, and I've had some trouble with it. Anyway, here's the basic idea:

Obama's popularity has declined sharply. The Republicans made picked up seats in the Senate, retook the House, and made major gains in the Gubernatorial elections during the 2010 mid-terms. In addition, Obama face strong challenges from within his own party. All of this would normally make the 2012 election a easy win for the Republicans, but...

American public opinion against the two-party system is growing. The Democrats' decline and the feelings of some conservatives that the Republicans simply use and abuse them, has led to some stronger than normal "third parties."

I'm envisioning some states that might not normally be in play coming into play because of this odd political landscape.

Here's my working list of candidates:

Republican

Richard Burr

Haley Barbour

Eric Cantor

Newt Gingrich

Mike Huckabee

Bobby Jindal

Gary Johnson

Sarah Palin

Tim Pawlenty

Mitt Romney

Michael Steele

John Thune

Democrat

Evan Bayh

Hillary Clinton

Tom Daschle

Barack Obama

Nancy Pelosi

Harry Reid

Bill Richardson

Brian Schweitzer

Mark Warner

Green

Matt Gonzalez

Jesse Johnson

Winona Laduke

Cynthia McKinney

Kent Mesplay

Ralph Nader

Kat Swift

Libertarian

Bob Barr

Michael Badnarik

Mike Gravel

Steve Kubby

Ron Paul

George Phillies

Wayne Allyn Root

Mary Ruwart

Constitution

Alan Keyes

Chuck Baldwin

Darrell Castle

Michael Peroutka

Howard Phillips

Independence Party

Jesse Ventura

Independent

Michael Bloomberg

Socialist

Stewart Alexander

Mary Alice Herbert

Brian Moore

Reform

David Collison

Ezola B. Foster

Frank McEnulty

Ted Weill

Candidate notes:

Nader - I know he hasn't been associated with the Greens in the last couple of election cycles, but I certainly felt that he would make the party a little more viable.

Gravel - I know he'll be as old as dirt by the time the 2012 election rolls around, but he does have relatively high name recognition, so I thought the idea made sense for this scenario.

Ron Paul: Although he has said that he wouldn't run third party, his presence here certainly makes things more interesting, and in the political environment in this scenario it seemed to make sense.

Party notes:

Republican and Democrat - Still the dominant parties, but I have an idea of the third-parties polling with a few points, and maybe some particularly strong candidates making a few states "interesting."

Constitution - Maybe before his Illinois Senate race fiasco Keyes could have been a viable strong candidate, but I had a hard time coming up with one for this scenario. I'd love to get some input.

Independence - From what little I know about the party, Ventura seemed like a logical fit, but I had a hard time coming up with any other candidates. I really feel like at least a couple more are needed.

Reform and Socialist - I don't necesarily see these two parties as being particularly strong, but I just felt like throwing a couple more wrenches into the works.

So, that's a bit of what I'm thinking. Any thoughts?

BTW, please don't get upset about the idea of Obama's popularity tanking or the Republican takeover being mentioned in the introduction. The Republicans have to be stronger than they are now, and Obama needs to be weak enough to allow a Democrat primary for this to really be a "free-for-all."

Okay,I think I would remove Mike Gravel from the Libertarian party because he ran for the Democratic nomination in 08,he is on the far left,place him in either the Indpendent,Green or Democratic party.

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here's my theory

West Coast: tossup between Greens and Dems

Whyoming, Montana, Arizona, Colorado small GOP lead but ultrastrong Libertarians.

Deep South slightly Constitution, rest of the south three-way tossup between Dems, GOP and Consitution. Florida just plain old DEMS V. GOP.

Midwest like so: Minnisota slightly Reform, but strong Democrats and Socialist

Iowa Republican/Reform/Democrat

Illinois: Socialists 10 points ahead

Indiana tie between Dems and Constitution

Michigan: Socialists 5 points ahead of Democrats

Ohio: Democrats ahead by 5 vs Reform

Pennslvania: constitution V Socialist

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Is this actually being made or is it just, an idea?

It is kind of in the idea stage right now, but I do intend to make it. I started the thread to ask for some help and input with making it.

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I started a scenario like this one without much success.

Some sort of Blue Dog Democrat/Reform party will be actually very realistic for 2012. I would see Joe Liberman, Michael Bloomberg and Mark Warner as main figures of this party. Also, one thing which is interesting is that maybe rising stars in the House are in fact Blue Dogs (Boren, Herseth, Shulter, Murphy, Sanchez, Giffords).

Basically here are my thoughts on third parties:

Greens: They can be strong in the Northwest, in San Francisco and Northern California and in College Towns and maybe a little bit in Montana and Alaska. About 10-15% in CA, OR, and WA and 4-5% in Montana and Alaska.

Constitution: A possible second or third place in some Western States with many social conservatives? (10-20% in Utah, Oklahoma, North and South Dakota, Idaho, Wyoming)

Libertarian: Possibly strong in Montana, Wyoming, Texas, Alaska and New Hampshire with about 5% in these states or more with Ron Paul.

Socialist: Strong in a couple of Rust Belt cities in OH, MI and PE. Does anybody had an idea for a ''populist'' socialist (I am maybe thinking about someone like Michael Moore). About 4-5% in MI and OH and 3-4% in PE, MN WI and IL.

Reform: More and less of a regional party with a much higher support in MN, WI, ND and SD with about 25% in MN and 10-15% in WI, ND and SD.

Nationalist/Anti-Immigration party: Can have some strength in Southern California, Arizona, Texas and Florida? Any ideas for possible leaders (maybe Lou Dobbs or Pat Buchanan?) About 10% in AZ and 5% in CA, TX and FL.

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