Alternate History Canada-1993

[matvail2002 803]

I will do two scenarios (and maybe more) based on an alternate history plot that I invented myself between 1988 and 1994 for Canadian Politics.

Please tell me if you have any questions or if you see any problems.

October 1988: Brian Mulroney call an election.

November 1988: In a surprise backroom move, John Turner is replaced by Jean Chrétien midway through the campaign.

November 1988:

The Conservatives and the NDP regained straight in the last few days and the final results were:

PC: 174 (with 70 seats in Quebec)

NDP: 60

LIBERALS: 46

REFORM:2

January 1989: Jean Chrétien resign as the Liberal leader, Sheila Coops is named interim leader.

June 1989: The Meech Lake Accord was passed by Manitoba, New Brunswick and Newfoundland Legislatures during this month. According to PM Mulroney, there will be another round for another accord based on an elected senate and self-government for Native people.

June 1989: Due to discord due to the Meech Lake Accord, there is a profound crisis within the Parti Québécois. 14 MNA (and Jacques Parizeau) which are considered to be pur-et-durs (more radicals) quits the PQ form a new party called the Parti Nationaliste du Québec which was opposed to any ''beau risque'' style approach especially since the adoption of the Meech Lake Accord. The party will be leaded by Camille Laurin. After his resignation from the leadership of the PQ in december 1988, Pierre-Marc Johnson becomes the PQ leader again.

September 1989: The Liberal Party was widely victorious in Québec's 1989 election and this with a very divided opposition:

LIBERALS: 102

PQ:12

PNQ:7

NPDQ:4

March-April 1990: A new constitutional round was accepted with the following issues:

-An elected senate by the April 1, 1994 at the latest. Seats will be reserved for the Native People and linguistic minorities.

-An Inuit territory (Nunavut) by July 1, 1998 and a Native territory in Labrador by the same date.

April 1990: Paul Martin is elected leader of the Liberal Party.

April 1990: A provincial wing of the PC was founded in Québec.

October 1990: Ed Broadbent resigns as the NPD leader and he his replaced by Svend Robinson after a leadership contest in 1991.

April 1992: The Liberals won another election in Ontario with 98 seats and 52%. The PC has 24 seats with 28% and the NDP has only 8 seats with 20%.

June 1992: The latest polls shows that the Reform Party is getting stronger at the expense of the NDP in the West:

PC: 35%

NDP:29%

LIBERAL: 20%

REFORM: 14%

October 1993: Brian Mulroney resigns as PM and Jean Charest becomes PM after he has beaten Kim Campbell and Michael Wilson in the leadership contest.

May 1993: An election will be called for June 22th 1993. The Senate will also be elected at this date for six years.

The main party leaders:

PC: Jean Charest

NDP: Svend Robinson

Liberals: Paul Martin

REFORM: Preston Manning

National: Mel Huntig

Leaders for the senate:

PC: Lowell Murray

NDP: Ed Broadbent

Liberal: Allan MacEachen

Reform: Grant Hill

[Treasurer 28]

Sounds rather interesting. So what happens with Quebec by 1993, do the opposition parties have any answer to the Liberal dominance? And the PC don't implode in these 1993 elections?

[matvail2002 803]

The PC had imploded for three reasons:

-The rise of the populist Reform Party in the West and the fact that the Reform Party was replacing the NDP as Western Canada main ''alienation'' party especially against Central Canada.

-The rise of the Bloc in Québec due to the Meech Lake Accord failure. Basically, the ''real'' Bloc at the time was formed of a majority by conservative members which was leaded by Lucien Bouchard (which had right-wing ideas even as Quebec prime minister). However, when Gilles Duceppe arrived (a former communist and trade union employee) as the leader of the party in 1997, he did a ''purge'' in the Bloc by replacing all ''right-wing'' MP especially with people who had links with labour unions in Quebec.

If the Bloc had never existed (and this with the Meech Lake Accord approval in my alternate history), I think that Montreal would have gone Liberal with maybe a few NDP seats and the rest of the province would have been more favourable to a more conservative party with the NDP having a few strong labour-union areas.

-A leadership problem especially during the course of the 1993 Election Campaign with Kim Campbell, because the PC (and their polls) were hoping to elect about 30 to 40 members in 1993.

[LordBeckett 29]

Any progress?