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Ontario 2007 edit


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I applaud your attempt at re-doing a historical scenario, a man after my own heart.

I will play it over Easter but wanted to give some pre-playing feedback on changes.

I might be wrong but I think the original was uploaded before voters went to the polls. This may explain the starting ridings data and the starting electoral trends data. Given that there was not much difference between the 2003 and the 2007 results, I don't think your changes here are significant.

If I was going to make any changes I would have altered the goals to reflect the 2007 result, which you didn't do and downgrade the Green Party which you did.

By the way, the Green Party logo needs to be squashed back into shape.

Although I am a fan of media linked regions but don't think their absence is a problem here.

Speaking personally, I think 4 endorsers is all I would want, a maximum of 8 would cater for those who like more options. Creating 14 is, well, a bit OTT.

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Since Norman had done more to change the NDP position from the original scenario, I thought I would play them. I was immediately reminded how difficult it is to make progress as the NDP beyond going from 10 seats to 17. Playing on the hardest settings, I knew that if I was to make any gains, it would be at the expense of the Liberals. I sensed that what random variables took place were mostly at the expence of the Liberals without helping the Tories too much. Halfway through it looked as if winning 17 was going to be easy but winning anymore, much harder. As Liberal fortunes declined the Tories took the lead a week from polling day. The result was Tory 48 seats Lib 38 NDP 21. Interestingly, both PC and Lib polled 34%.

So, now to the scenario analysis.

Despite there being 14 endorsers, most of them could be ignored as they offered little assistance.

This scenario needs some events to alter the issue profiles to make it more interesting. There is an events file with up to date stuff in it, but the affects are weak.

It's a tiresome alteration to make, but I would increase the number of regions from 5 to about 12. This would reduce the effect of barnstorming and crusading. But I would only do this in conjuction with creating 5 media linked groups. Saskguy's unfinished 2003 scenario has 9 regions, maybe that will work better.

Like the original, it stands up reasonably well as a game. As a newby, Norman has chosen a good scenario to work on. He may not feel like going back to it and tweaking it some more but in terms of scenario creation, it would help his development. Furthermore, Ontario is a scenario subject which has been largely ignored.

Apart from 2003 and 1999, no others have been produced. I have a 1985 scenario on my PC which although close to being finished has not been looked at for about a month. Maybe I am inspired to finish it.

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So far Ive played 3 times as McGuinty, fairly easy to win a majority all 3 times but I cant get higher than 66. I think he got 71 in the election. Ill try Howard Hampton later.

The 2003 results are actually a fair bit different than 2007 in a number of cases. The Liberal seats in Toronto are on the whole stronger, specifically Ajax Pickering, Willowdale and Don Valley West, plus a bunch of other ones. Some are weaker, but mostly it should be an easier ride for the Liberals in Toronto and some of their 905 and Central Ontario seats. I think Tory won 7 seats to my 15 in the GTA with the NDP getting 5 even as I was headed to a strong majority in the other regions(even Central Ontario was won for the Liberals that time).

Conversely 2007 saw a weakening of Liberal support in alot of their Northern ridings, big in terms of % even though no seats were lost.

Leaders stats are pretty good, maybe Tory is a bit weak, maybe needs a 3 in experience other than a 2 although thats debatable, but other than that it seems fine.

NDP seem to come on way to strongly percentage wise, I think they only got about 15% in the election in 2007, they dont tend to win any more than 15 seats, but theyve taken 21-24% every time. Greens too might be a bit overpowered, but thats probably because no one bothers to attack them since theyre not really worth it in a short campaign. Overall not bad.

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BTW, Saskguy has made a 2003 Ontario scenario will a very good map with more regions and all parties.

It would be a good thing to maybe add all parties as there were pretty similar between 2003 and 2007.

The new map is also much more realist.

Basically, the Ontario provincial electorate is very volatile as:

-Toronto is generally liberal. However both the NDP and the PC could target 3-4 seats which are winnable close to downtown for the NDP and in affluent and some middle-class sectors for the PC. Target Davenport and Toronto-Centre for the Greens.

-Northern Ontario can go NDP especially cities like Sudbury, S.S. Marie and Thunder Bay.

However, I would doubt than the NDP will gain some seats in the next election in the north due to Hampton departure. The Kenora area is becoming more and more conservative in the last few years like Rural Manitoba.

-Central Ontario (905) will be first region to switch for the PC from the Liberals. This is a truly bellweather region except for Oshawa which is NDP vs. PC. It is truely possible for the PC to win 60% of the seats in this region when they form a majority. Try to target the Peterborough riding and all of Mississauga and Brampton.

-Rural Southern Ontario can go PC. However, Hamilton, Windsor, London and Cambridge could go NDP with a high labour support. Try to target the Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound riding which can be won for the Greens with some vote splitting.

-Rural Eastern Ontario is more and more PC over the time. However the Far East (Glengarry-Prescott-Russell) region in quite Liberal due to a Francophone majority.

-Ottawa (where I live) is a mixed bag. Basically, Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa-South are liberal all the way, with a very weak NDP. Ottawa-Centre is a tie between the NDP and the Liberals and the West End is generally Conservative except for a few areas with more immigrants. Ottawa-Orléans is very bellweather with a strong PC candidate who could possibly win the riding.

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NDP seem to come on way to strongly percentage wise, I think they only got about 15% in the election in 2007, they dont tend to win any more than 15 seats, but theyve taken 21-24% every time. Greens too might be a bit overpowered, but thats probably because no one bothers to attack them since theyre not really worth it in a short campaign. Overall not bad.

I don't know my facts but I suspect giving the NDP 2/3s of the money that are given to the big 2 is more than in reality and suspect that the green funds are a bit high also.

I forgot to add that this scenario maintains the variation of the cost of running ads from one region to another with North being far more expensive. I was never sure if this was a design error or an attempt to be realistic.

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BTW, Saskguy has made a 2003 Ontario scenario will a very good map with more regions and all parties.

It would be a good thing to maybe add all parties as there were pretty similar between 2003 and 2007.

The new map is also much more realist.

Saskguy maintained that his scenario was not finished. He also said that he made up the regions without the sensitivity of someoene who knew Ontario. If his regions stand up to local scrutiny, then I agree with matvail.

In this (and indeed most) scenarios, adding more than 4 parties involves a lot of hard work whilst adding nothing to the game playing aspect.

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I don't know my facts but I suspect giving the NDP 2/3s of the money that are given to the big 2 is more than in reality and suspect that the green funds are a bit high also.

I forgot to add that this scenario maintains the variation of the cost of running ads from one region to another with North being far more expensive. I was never sure if this was a design error or an attempt to be realistic.

Greens actually only get 1 million dollars, as compared to 10 million for the NDP. And i guess the NDP starts out at like 18-20% whereas every other party is about 1% below what they got in the actual 2007 election when you take undecideds into account.

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I don't know my facts but I suspect giving the NDP 2/3s of the money that are given to the big 2 is more than in reality and suspect that the green funds are a bit high also.

I forgot to add that this scenario maintains the variation of the cost of running ads from one region to another with North being far more expensive. I was never sure if this was a design error or an attempt to be realistic.

It was an attempt to be realistic because you need to put your ads for more media markets each with their own TV station, newspapers and radio stations in the Northern Ontario region with North Bay, Sudbury, SS Marie, Timmins and Thunder Bay (about 4-5) as compared to other regions with only one or two media markets.

(BTW, I don't have the population error as the population is pretty realistic).

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