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United States Presidential Election, 1960 - BETA


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VERSION 1.2

-Gave Dixiecrats delegates

-Decreased power of Truman endorsement

-Minor bug fixes

http://www.2shared.com/file/5387702/b9a266...-_1960_v12.html

DEMOCRATS:

Senator John Kennedy

Senator Lyndon Johnson

Senator Hubert Humphrey

Senator Stuart Symington

Fmr. Governor Adlai Stevenson

Governor Pat Brown (Off by Default)

Governor Robert Meyner (Off by Default)

REPUBLICANS:

Vice-President Richard Nixon

Governor Nelson Rockefeller (Off by Default)

Senator Barry Goldwater (Off by Default)

DIXIECRATS:

Senator Harry Byrd

I've decided not to include the States' Rights Party and Orval Faubus, because Faubus didn't actually seek the nomination nor did he campaign. The only state he was significant in was Arkansas, and I have included his total in that of the Dixiecrats'.

SCREENSHOTS:

democraticprimary60.jpg

republican60.jpg

general60.jpg

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A few things you need to fix:

-Brown and Meyner are described as the Governors of California and Missouri, respectively, though both have their home state set in Alabama.

-In the GOP primaries, Goldwaters has a solid 100% in every state. There's not even undecided. Nixon and Rockefeller literally have 0% of the primaries vote.

-In the GE map at the start of the primaries (I haven't yet tried starting without the primaries) the Democrats lead by a HUGE margin in every state (so that it says 'this is Democratic country) except Mississippi, where they roughly tie with the Dixiecrats.

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Could someone who has this scenario 1.1 version please send me a copy? I can't seem to get the download client to work.

chandallah@netscape.net

Never mind that request. I just noticed the 'save to your PC' link in tiny print at the very bottom. :P

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  • 3 weeks later...

I'd like to make a few suggestions:

General Election:

1) I'd either put Byrd on the ballot in Alabama (Faubus was IRL; his vote total was minor, however) or have two Alabama states to represent the electoral situation there.

2) Faubus was on the ballot in TN and got about 1%. It's the only state he had any impact in other than AR. I'd put Byrd on there to represent this.

Primary Election:

1) I think at least in some of the primaries, candidates shouldn't be on the ballot. Examples include NH (where only Kennedy and one minor candidate filed) and WI/WV (which were both a straight fight between JFK and Humphrey). In my experience in the 1968 scenario this isn't problematic, as a candidate can knock their way onto the ballot with some campaigning...it just takes some effort, that's all.

2) Likewise, some of the favorite sons shouldn't be on the ballot in more than a state or two.

3) Finally, the LA and KY primaries are horridly post-dated. I think this is a likely typo.

4) Oh...yet another addendum, but LBJ has way too much support outside the South. I seem to recall reading in White that a bunch of northern delegations didn't even want him for VP, not to mention his not-filing-in-primaries strategy.

5) The addenda keep coming, don't they? Stevenson should probably be weaker in IL (where Daley locked things up for JFK) but stronger in CA and HI. IRL he had a fair chunk of the CA delegation, and also "won" Hawai'i (it was close to a three-way split).

6) Yeah, here we go again...Nixon should probably be stronger outside New England vis-a-vis Rocky. There's a good reason Rockefeller dropped out early on. Likewise, I'd give Goldwater a chunk of votes in LA (which cast 10 votes for him).

7) Shocker...I think the fundraising needs to get pulled back a hair. I'm going to chop it off by 90% and see how that works.

--On fundraising, I cut the coefficients to 17 (from the 1968 scenario) and 51 (1/10 the fundraising ability of that scenario). That basically pulled it in line.

8) I think the union endorsements need to be either made very state-specific (i.e. like the Greenville Group and Strom Thurmond ones in '68) or cut entirely.

9) Daley needs to be an endorser in IL. Stevenson's failure to talk with RJD was why his bid collapsed: Daley rounded up support for JFK when Stevenson declined to announce a bid (and it made for a fun phone call between the two at the convention).

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I went in and re-wired the scenario; it works a lot better now, IMHO:

Overall:

1) Cut the fundraising coefficients way down.

GOP:

1) Rocky's support got dropped in most of his non-50% states. I left it alone in some of the states bordering the NE.

2) I gave Goldwater a boost in a string of states in the Deep South (from either NC or SC to LA).

The combined effect nearly guarantees Nixon a win, all else being equal. Rocky has a swath of support in the NE (which I may expand into parts of the MW). Goldwater can win a few states with effort, but never more than about six or seven.

DEM:

1) Cut LBJ's non-Southern support.

2) Cut JFK's support in the South (to 10% in most states, 15% in LA, and left him alone in FL).

3) Converted Brown and Meyner to favorite sons; added Smathers, DiSalle, and Morse as favorite sons.

I'm not sure how to deal with parts of the MW and Great Plains (notably KS); I don't want those states defaulting to Kennedy, but I have a hard time allocating them elsewhere.

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After a long string of test runs:

On the Democratic side: JFK is secure in the NE, and LBJ in the South. The question frequently comes down to who can take the swing regions (MW and Rockies); usually the "third force" mucking things up in a computer game is Stevenson (who adds enough to IL that he's a threat). Often JFK wins this, but it's usually a respectably close fight (in short, what happened IRL).

On the GOP side: Goldwater can snag a few states if human-controlled, but they're all going to generally be in the South. He's only viable in a handful, but if he wins those he might be able to force a convention. If not, it's a fight between Rocky and Nixon; Nixon is favored, but Rocky can pull it off if he gets lucky once or twice.

When playing as a human, anyone is winnable as (except the Favorite Sons, though Brown sometimes proves doable as); the main problem is that the computer players tend to shoot their wad even though there's next to nothing coming in, letting you clean up as time goes by.

Questions:

1) How do I upload this version so y'all can tinker with it?

2) How can I fiddle with the AI so their spending is a tad more...realistic?

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Save it to a .zip file and put it up on any of a multitude of upload sites. I used 2shared, but it really doesn't matter. Just not Rapidshare.

I appreciate all the work your doing on this. The way I designed the scenario, I didn't intend on making it super realistic in terms of favorite sons. I put in only the most serious candidates, and, of course, Brown and Meyner, both of whom were featured on the Time Magazine cover off of which I pulled the Democratic candidates' pictures. This was not meant to turn into the Rube Goldberg machine that is 1968, even if 1968 is more realistic.

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http://www.2shared.com/file/5522811/99db4ab7/1960_v121.html

That's the link. The main thing I was shooting for was a slight boost in realism...more or less to counter the tendency of odd results to come out. I don't think I could pull off a 1968, but putting things a bit more into line with what happened IRL only took half an hour or so.

Warner, I'm wondering...would you be interested in collaborating on scenarios for either 1948 or 1952?

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http://www.2shared.com/file/5522811/99db4ab7/1960_v121.html

That's the link. The main thing I was shooting for was a slight boost in realism...more or less to counter the tendency of odd results to come out. I don't think I could pull off a 1968, but putting things a bit more into line with what happened IRL only took half an hour or so.

Warner, I'm wondering...would you be interested in collaborating on scenarios for either 1948 or 1952?

Certainly. 1952 would be an excellent race.

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Certainly. 1952 would be an excellent race.

Alright. I'm looking up 1952 now...the Republican side is going to be much easier. It's basically the modified 1960 I put together, with the addition of Stassen (as a favorite son in Minnesota and minor candidate elsewhere), Warren (CA favorite son only), and possibly

The Democratic side, on the other hand, is a morass that is going to make me dizzy. Candidates are as follows:

Major:

Kefauver (should be favored in the primaries)

Stevenson (the best way to handle him is a massive shot of momentum late in the process)

Harriman (Partially a favorite son for NY, but with some western support)

Russell (large bloc in the South, some support in the West)

Favorite Son:

Hubert Humphrey (MN)

J. William Fulbright (AR)

Robert Kerr (OK)

Paul Dever (MA)

In the middle somewhere is Barkley...a bit more than an FS but less than a major candidate. The other oddity is Truman (there probably need to be two "Trumans").

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As far as Truman, I would have him as off by default, but being a strong candidate in the midwest and the farming states. I feel that the regional modifiers should essentially make him a stronger candidate than Stevenson, but still trailing Eisenhower.

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As far as Truman, I would have him as off by default, but being a strong candidate in the midwest and the farming states. I feel that the regional modifiers should essentially make him a stronger candidate than Stevenson, but still trailing Eisenhower.

Well, I'd insert a "dummy" Truman for the purposes of New Hampshire that would be on by default, and an "active" one that would be off by default. The former would be zeroed out in most states, while the latter would poll respectably (but not overwhelmingly well, and would be shut out of the South).

-----------------------------

I can turn to '64 in a bit. That one is actually a morass of a different feather, though.

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