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2016 Scenario, anyone?


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Anyone around here planning on making an interesting 2016 scenario; one that sort of plays off of the recently posted 2012 scenario.? I don't think I'd be so hot at making it myself, but perhaps someone would be willing to take on a scenario that goes a little like the following:

It is late summer, 2015, and President Obama is enjoying roughly 55-60% approval ratings. There can be lots of room for imagination on how his first and second terms went domestically and foreign policy wise (and I'll leave that up to whoever takes this scenario on), but after a rocky first term and closer than expected reelection battle, his numbers have come to resemble Ronald Reagan's and Bill Clinton's in their latter years in office.

I envision this scenario as putting the Democrats in a slight advantage out of the gate, somewhere between the Republicans position in 1988 and the Democrats position in 2000 (the Bush/Dukakis race wasn't terribly close, while the Gore/Bush race was), but certainly any man (or woman's) race to win or lose. Potential Democratic candidates:

1. Hillary Clinton: If Obama is enjoying near 60% approval ratings, it's not irrational to think that Clinton would be fairly popular too, and likely still popular amongst the Democratic base, and of course, an avid campaigner. Also, as a centrist Sec. of State for 6 acclaimed years, she would be a tough contender. The Age Factor: It may be present, but Hillary will only be 67/68/69 yrs old when running (think of the American Left's Margaret Thatcher). I just don't think that she'll too old for a post-Obama America to give her a serious second glance.

2. Mark Warner: For obvious reasons; a continued rising star, very popular in a purple state, will likely be reelected to the Senate in 2014, and young enough to give it a serious go in 2016

3. Rahm Emanuel: He could be the "Obama-legacy' candidate, or the 2016 "Howard Dean" candidate. However, just because Obama has 55-60% approval ratings doesnt mean America wants to see another clone Obama Administration (ie; Gore campaign only received 48% of national popular vote in 2000, even though Clinton had relatively high approval ratings as he left office)

4. Kirsten Gillebrand: This is my dark-horse candidate. I know very little about her, other than the fact that she's a soft-spoken, tenacious, cut-throat NY Democrat with a HEAVY conservative streak who made it big in a LARGE, BLUE state (NY). Of course, in this scenario, she will have won her Special Election in 2010, by a LANDSLIDE after a tough, close Democratic Primary battle

5. Brian Schweitzer: popular Governor from the West, will prove to be Rahm Emanuel's greatest challenge to winning the grassroots/Dailykos/Howard Dean support

6. Joe Biden: this would be an interesting scenario. In all likelihood, Joe Biden won't be running in 2016, no matter how popular the Obama/Biden Administration is. For one, he has indicated he has no intention of succeeding Obama. Also, he would be 72/73/74 while running, 5 years older than Hillary would be at that time, and even a year or two older than McCain was 2008. If you thought they made age an issue with McCain, wait and see what they'd say about Biden in 8 years. But still, he could MAYBE, big maybe, be a contender if he chose to run after a generally successful 2 terms of an Obama/Biden Administration

Any other Democratic suggestions would be welcome.

Republican Situation: Ahh, the GOP. Im envisioning the GOP as having severe struggles for the first couple years of the Obama Adminstration, before finally finding there stride after the 2010 midterms, and in time for the 2012 election. After losing a surprisingly close presidential race in 2012 (50.3%-47.1%, perhaps running Mitt Romney, Charlie Crist, Tim Pawlenty, whoever), the Republicans are ready for a return to power, hoping to steer voters in a new direction in the face of a popular outgoing administration ( similar to George W. Bush in 2000).

Republican Contenders:

1: Sarah Palin: lets assume Sarah plays it safe in 2012, and passes up on an opportunity to unseat what most of the GOP believes to be an unbeatable Obama (despite actual results, which showed a closer than expected race). She releases her book in the Fall of 2009, which becomes a GIGANTIC seller, and after a MASSIVE, COHERENT and slightly more intellectual media blitz, her national public image inches upward from around 43% to around 56-61% approval. Meanwhile, she cruises to reelection as Governor of Alaska in 2010, winning 66% of the vote, and earning the reputation of a largely successful, 2 term governor. She remains highly active on the campaign circuit for the Obama/Biden years, being frequently dispatched to hotly contested areas in the 2010, 2012, and 2014 elections. She does more interviews, becomes more at ease in front of the camera, and a bit more substantive. After being barred from serving another term as Governor in 2014, Palin throws her hat in the ring early, and mounts a bid to become the first female nominee for the Republican party, and actually complete what Republicans had hoped George W. Bush would do.

2. Jeb Bush: You know, this may seem crazy, so I'll concede this is my 'crazy' pick. But here's how I could possibly see this happening: Jeb Bush is no George W. Bush. Say what you will about the ex-Pres, but it would be grossly unfair to say that his younger brother is a clone. His younger brother is still popular amongst conservatives and the Republican base (a plus for winning the nomination), and he is actually popular somewhere (quite popular in the state of Florida). On top of that, most polls showed a slight bounce in George W. Bush's numbers as he exited office (somewhere around 35% approval). If Iraq sees continued success and democratic evolvement, Dubya's public image might increase enough to make it possible for his younger, more articulate, more popular brother give it a serious go. Crazy? Sure. Impossible? No way.

3. Bobby Jindal: Bobby Jindal is another one who thought it would be wise to wait and allow Obama his time in the spotlight in 2012. Plus, he would have only been 41 years old when challenging the 51 year old President Obama. It was much more wise for him to wait, win reelection to the Governor of Louisianna in 2011 by a landslide (68%), and give it a go at the ripe old age of 45. He and Sarah Palin will vouch for the newly mobilized and large-numbered Conservative grassroots movement.

4.Meg Whitman: Meg Whitman will be the standard, moderate, Bloomberg/Guiliani-esque Republican candidate. As a fiscal conservative/social moderate with decent approval ratings as Governor in the Democratic state of California (55%, winning in 2010), you can see why she would be appealing. Also, after making some improvements in California's disasterous economy, she is seen as a bit of a guru on economic issues.

I'm gonna need some more help on the potential Republican candidates in 2012. Any input would be great.

I apologize for this over-detailed scenario lay out. I just wanted to get it out there to someone who would be interested in doing it, and I'm certainly willing to let people play around with the scenario details. For anyone who has read this far, I thank you. Hope to hear from some of you.

Brandon

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First, sorry for maybe bad writing english, it is not my maternal language. :unsure:

Some names than i wrote here can was utopic but it is just my <<two cents>>.

Democratic :

Robert F. Kennedy Jr : If you don't considering is criminal past (heroin possession)...And it is a Kennedy! :P

Patrick J. Kennedy : Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Rhode Island's 1st district.

Caroline Kennedy : Future member of the US Senate!?

Bob Casey, Jr. : United States Senator from Pennsylvania.

Evan Bayh : United States Senator and former governor from Indiana. Favorite son!?

Russ Feingold : United States Senator from Wisconsin.

Mark Udall : United States Senator from Colorado and former U.S. House of Representatives. It is the son of Morris "Mo" Udall, a former congressman from Arizona and candidate for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 1976.

Tom Udall : United States Senator from New Mexico...Cousin of Mark.

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin : Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from South Dakota, if she accept and win the governership of South Dakota, she can be a serious countender.

Tim Kaine : Governor of Virginia.

Republican :

Sam Brownback : United States Senator from Kansas...Maybe another try!

Susan Collins : United States Senator from Maine...<<In my book>>, if McCain was really want a women for being is VP candidate in 2008 election, Collins was a better choice than Palin.

John Cornyn : United States Senator from Texas.

John Ensign : United States Senator from Nevada.

Rick Perry : Governor of Texas.

Charlie Crist : Governor of Florida.

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There's a good chance that many, if not most, of the 2016 contenders will be people who are off the radar today. Few people in 2000 (or early 2001) would have picked Obama, Huckabee, or Giuliani as serious presidential contenders in 2008.

I do agree that a few serious contenders for 2016 have yet to be heard of. But still, with a look at recent elections, national and local, we could make some quasi-educated guesses as to who would give it a try in '16. And most of the contenders I listed are certainly feasible, perhaps with the exception of Joe Biden.

But that's why Im asking for help. Any other 'rising-stars' out there in both parties that some of us aren't privy to? Any obvious contenders I'm missing? I agree with the post above in suggesting Tim Kaine be a contender in 2016.

Thanks for the input.....and of course, anyone who wants to take on this scenario, feel free to do so. I'll leave the scenario-making to some of the more experienced hands.

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I'm currently working on a 2016 scenario, amidst other projects.

Check out this thread. And read it thoroughly, as it started in planning before the 2008 results were in, and the original idea was Palin as an incumbant. That idea quickly changed. There's a link to an alpha version you can look at, too (though it's already changed significantly on my HD).

http://80soft.ipbhost.com/index.php?showto...t=0&start=0

As for a 2012 scenario it springs from, I've just started work on my own, which was largely inspired as a prelude to my 2016 scenario, as opposed to basing it on anyone else's.

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I would add David Cicilline, too. He's currently the mayor of Providence, Rhode Island and might be (with any luck) the first openly gay politician elected Governor in the United States. Should that happen, I could see him maybe aspiring for higher office anyway, as he has good credentials as mayor of Providence and the like. He might not make it out of the primary, but he would have strong support from many Democrats.

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