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2009 Canadian Election


fish299

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Hey all I just joined up at the forums here but have been a longtime fan of Canadian Prime Minister Forever and have been loving all the different user mods for it. Im starting to mod a Canadian election scenario set in 2009, which for those of you not following Canadian politics right now is a very real possibility with the political turmoil we've experienced recently.

The storyline being that even tho Harper got Parliament to prorogue last week, but the coalition manages to still take power in February with Prime Minister Michael Ignatieff at its head. However the three parties can't agree on anything, as the NDP being socialists and Bloc being separatists, there would probably be some tension with the centrist, federalist Liberals over a budget. So the Conservatives engineer the government's downfall on its first budget, supported by enough MPs to trigger an election around March to April 2008. All this political tension is set amongst a backdrop of a Canadian economy entering its first quarter of recession.

I'd be lying if I said Im a good modder, i havent figured out how to use the constituency editor yet lol, however Im modifying the text files from the 2008 scenarios diligently, updating issues and such. Im going to be framing the scenario as there being favourable for the Conservatives winning a majority, as all initial public opinion polls show the Conservatives at around 45%, which usually gives a sizeable majority to a political party in our electoral system.

Regionally Id have the 10 or so Conservative seats in Quebec in jepoardy, cause Harpers been bashing the separatists being in the coalition alot, which has seen his Quebec polling gone down. However Id have them winning alot more seats in English Canada, particularly picking up alot of the remaining seats in the West, which is quite angry over this situation.

Anyway I just though Id put this out to the forum to take any suggestions you more experienced people might have, or any differing veiwpoints on my analysis of the general political situation. I am an unabashed Conservative supporter after all, so if any bias has crept into my analysis please tell me, I think my reasoning is pretty solid tho haha.

Cheers,

fish_299

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Except east of the Ottawa River, it will be will dark blue with your scenario with many gains in the Toronto area.

Also, as per the Conservatives MP's in Québec, I don't think that the half of them are in great difficulty because this is ADQ heartland (Québec City and South of Québec) as seen with the 7 seats in tonight election.

I am also 60% sure that Mario Dumont will be a conservative candidate in his Rivière-du-Loup area in the next election (as Québec's conservative lieutenant) as he just annonced his resignation right now on television.

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Great points, it will be interesting to see if Dumont makes the transition to federal politics. In particular his brand of cultural conservativism which he ran on in the last two elections and how it will impact the Conservative party going forward. Im thinking about issues in the election, either one just entitled "coalition government", and whether it was a good idea or not, or should i tie it into the larger "government ethics" issue.

Also im thinkin afghanistan will be back as a big issue in my scenario, maybe an event midways thro the race in which Barack Obama asks for Canada to stay in a combat role in the south? Im thinking new options like stay till 2015 or something with the promise of increased American presence. Im thinkin Jack against it obviously, Harper for it, Ignatieff hedging and Duceppe hedging as well?!? On Duceppe im thinkin how should I play Obama's popularity in Quebec at the moment?

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Ignatieff will probably be more confidently pro-American and for the Afghanistan commitment- considering that Obama will neutralize the anti-Americans on the Canadian left.

Multiculturalism will probably become a major issue as well; and of course the Tories' biggest strength other than tax cuts. Of course the NDP and Libs will have strength on the environment.

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Hey guys, Ive modified most of issues and leaders, campaign blurbs etc. I still cant for the life of me tho get the constituency editor to work, whatever I do with the file arrangement I get the default_Greater_Vancouver etc... message. Ive gone over the sticky for it, but the instructions are proving too vague for me. Could someone help me please?

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Multiculturalism will probably become a major issue as well; and of course the Tories' biggest strength other than tax cuts. Of course the NDP and Libs will have strength on the environment.

Multiculturalism is not a very big issue at the moment. Of course, the majority of people (especially outside of major cities) are not that favorable as you may think about this policy which they say it's Toronto, Montreal (or Vancouver)-centric or they link it with former PM Trudeau which was very unpopular outside of Toronto and a few other areas in Ontario.

Do you mean National Unity or Western Alienation instead? (which is becoming a major issue).

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Hmmmm I could spin a scenario where Harper seeing polling with him safely in majority territory could justify taking the conservative view on multiculturalism we all know the conservatives have and bring it up as a campaign issue. That and I already coded all the files with a multiculturalism event and don't want to go back and change it ;)

Heres the new issues I have:

Multiculturalism- center right everywhere but montreal, vancouver and gta, which are center left. Possibly right in Quebec rural areas?

Multiculturalism is the Canadian Way! Further entrench it in the constitution, people who oppose multiculturalism are racist!

All cultures are equal in Canada. Multiculturalism is what makes Canada great, no changes in policy.

Look to scrap some official government policies that divide Canadians unneccesarily, but keep the general idea of multiculturalism.

Canadians are naturally tolerant, so government should focus on encouraging immigrants to inegrate. Repeal Multiculturalism Act.

Immigrants who come here should adapt to our way of life, not the other way around! Use government to make newcomers adapt to our culture.

Coalition government- Center right(negative) in all of english Canada, with maybe center in Maritimes. Center left in Quebec(highlights the French English split we're seeing on this issue)

Keep the NDP and Liberal parties in a permanent coalition, with the goal of becoming one united party.

A coalition government should stay in power after this election to stear Canada through the tough times ahead.

Coalition governments are a good idea, explore them with opposition parties in the event of a minority government.

Coalitions are an unelected affront to democracy, the people of Canada should decide who our Prime Minister is!

The coalition government was an unconstitutional nightmare. Take public subsidies away from parties as punishment.

Human Rights Commissions- Center right out west, maybe center in ontario and maritimes, center left in cities and quebec

Human Rights Commissions exist to purge racism and hierarchy from society. Give them expanded powers to prosecute hate!

Human Rights Commissions are a good idea executed badly. Increased government oversight.

Keep Human Rights Commissions, but repeal Section 13 of the Human Rights Code so people can't be presecuted for offending people.

HRCs infringe on freedom of speech. Scrap the entire bureaucracy and use the money saved to fund other anti-discrimination programs.

Human Rights Commissions? More like Human Rights Inquisitions! Completely scrap them, free speech is more important!

Afghanistan- Center right out west, center or center right in ontario, center left Quebec, center right maritimes?(Im thinking strong army presence out east shores up support for a increased deployment)

Withdraw all troops immediately from Afghanistan. Become an honest broker for peace talks between the Taliban and Afghan government.

Keep our troops there till 2011, but change our mission to peacekeeping. Transfer the mission there from NATO to UN jurisdiction.

Keep our current commitment in Afghanistan until 2011. Wait and see how many troops Obama puts into the south until agreeing to anything more.

Commitment in Kandahar until 2014 to help President Obama secure Afghanistan for our security and their democracy.

Stay until the job is finished. We're fighting them over there so we don't have to fight them over here!

What do you guys think?

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I like it, though I think that Canada 2008 (at least the scenario I downloaded), already has some of these issues.

And yes, I was arguing that the Conservatives' CR Position on multiculturalism is fairly popular in Canada outside of Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver.

And I would suggest still including in other Liberal leaders besides Ignatieff such as Dion, Rae, and Trudeau.

National Unity might also make a decent issue as well.

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Scenarios mostly coded, just have to finish up ridings in Ontario and Quebec. I acedidently used the Canada 2008 wonk ridings files, with the regular 2008 map, so I have to sort out where all the ridings go, for instance one riding in the ottawa region of the wonk scenario is blo quebecois, cause they include the quebec suburbs of Ottawa in it, so i cant just put all the ottawa ridings in the north eastern ontario region. Ill probably have it done in a couple days.

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Sorry to bring this up so late, but what about a Rebuilding the Cities issues. Recently, the Conservatives have planned a major overhaul of roads, bridges, utilities, etc. in Canada's biggest cities in an effort to combat the recession. To be honest, I don't know any of the opposition parties' viewpoints on this issue. It's just a thought.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Looks pretty neat. Ill base my comments on the fact that it seems your scenario would lead to a fairly large 170 or so seat majority for the CPC, even though Im not at all a CPC supporter :).

If the CPC were at 45% or so like you said youre going to show them at, I still dont think they would win a whole lot of seats in 416 Toronto, although some 905 Toronto ridings that are Liberal now like in Missisauga and what not would definitely be in CPC hands, which probably gives them 65-70 seats in Ontario. The North would probably be almost all NDP, the 416 would be mostly Liberal with a couple NDP and CPC, Suburban Toronto would be mostly CPC with a few Liberals, and cities like Ottawa, Windsor and Hamilton and London would still have some Liberal and NDP representation.

Another thing, Ignatieff is polling incredibly high in Quebec. Last one I saw was LIB 42 BQ 28 CPC 16 and another one was BQ 36 LIB 34 CPC 18. So in that case the CPC would lose a bunch of their Quebec area ridings and Laurence Cannon's Pontiac but would probably still hold their Beauce and surrounding seats seats giving them 5 or 6 in QC.

In the west is probably where the CPC will increase the most percentage-wise(ie many more larger rural supermajorities but not a whole lot more seats). Alberta would be all CPC with a relatively close race in NDP-held Edmonton-Strathcona and every other riding a landslide. Sask would probably all CPC except Goodale in Wascana which would be very close. BC would probably be all CPC except a couple Vancouver ridings and a couple NDP rural seats where they have strong incumbents (ie Nathan Cullen and Atamatenko). The Liberals would probably be at 3-4 seats out west (Wascana and Yukon and maybe a Vancouver riding or two) the NDP probably around 10 (Northwest Territories a couple in Winnipeg, Churchill, and a few in BC) and the CPC the remaining 80 or so.

The Maritimes would probably be about the same as 2008, probably with another seat or two in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick for the CPC, maybe one of the Newfoundland seats for the CPC and pretty close leads for the Liberals in some of their rural Maritime ridings. So overall this probably gives 80 West + 70 Ontario + 7-8 Quebec + 15-16 Maritimes seats for the CPC giving them about 175 and of course both Independent MP's are pretty conservative as well. The Liberals would probably have around 70-75 seats, with about 30 from Ontario about 25 from Quebec nearly all from Montreal or the surrounding area, 15 or so from the Maritimes and the rest scattered across the West. The NDP would probably have about 25, losing a few Western seats and rural/suburban Ontario seats to the CPC and then the BQ would have around 40.

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The Bloc will basically have their 1997-2000 electoral score with about 38-42 seats and 32-38% of the vote.

Remember, Québec City was in majority anti-coalition and the ADQ is the second party here.

I live in Cannon's riding and I must say that he as a ''star-candidate'' factor because nobody from that riding ever had a high-ranking ministry.

South of Québec City, the ADQ also did well compared to other regions and the PQ had poor scores.

5 ridings to watch in Québec:

-Gatineau: Will probably go Liberal this time because the Bloc only won with 29%!

-Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia: The Liberals will also probably win this one against the BQ if Nancy Charest (former Québec's MNA) is candidate again.

-Brome—Missisquoi: Will go liberal this time against the Bloc. This is a federalist riding with a strong majority to the QLP is the last election.

-Jeanne-Le Ber: Will also go liberal this time against the Bloc. Multicultural Montréal riding.

-Ahuntsic: Will go liberal this time against the Bloc. Many immigrants is the Montréal riding.

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-Brome—Missisquoi: Will go liberal this time against the Bloc. This is a federalist riding with a strong majority to the QLP is the last election.

If the Conservative have a low number of vote, otherwise, it is an another BQ victory... Thank to federalist vote split! :P

P.S. : I am a Liberal!

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