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2008 US Election Predictions & Election night talk


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I meant that PA tightened as election day went on in 2004, going from a substantial Kerry lead to a margin of just two points. I'm not saying that Obama will only win by two points, just that the media probably won't call PA until they're absolutely sure of the winner.

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1948

Please.

many pollsters were so confident of Dewey's victory that they simply stopped polling voters weeks before the election, and thus missed a last-minute surge of support for the Democrats.

Also, while one can take issue with many separate polling organizations, as an aggregate they do pretty good. Unlike the exit polls, the final polling results for 2004 correctly predicted a narrow Bush victory. With the outstanding example of New Hampshire this year aside, they've done pretty well as a group for the 2008 primary campaign as well.

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I still think it'll be closer then the polls indicate.

Sure, I agree with you and I'm not saying McCain can't win (although it's rather unlikely). But 1948 was a colossal screw-up by both the entire polling industry and Governor Dewey himself and it happened, let us not forget, 60 years ago when polling—comparatively—was is in its infancy.

If the polls get this wrong… it will make what happened in the UK in 1992 in the polling outfits look like a mild case of indigestion (and they made huge, sweeping, changes because of that).

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1948

You are just so stubborn. We'll let the results take care of that for you.

A. Dewey campaigned 16 times cause he expected the Presideny.

B. Truman campaigned somewhere around 360 times.

Your comparing polling now and then? A Pathetic defense.

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353 to 185

It appears I was wrong about Indiana and have an outside chance about being wrong on Missouri and/or North Carolina (both of which remain too close to call for all networks, while Indiana is too close to call for some networks).

Nevertheless, congratulations President-elect Obama.

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Well now that the official results are in can we please get rid of 1 if not both of the far right parties? Both Nader and McKinney finished with much higher vote totals than either of the 2 far right parties included in the game. I never really understood what rational was used to include them in the first place: Nader and the Greens always had the highest vote totals among 3rd parties in the previous 2 elections.

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The Libertarians are deffinatly not far-right. Many support abortion, they are against the war in Iraq, ect.
Not quite. Many Libertarians I've met can easily be viewed as far-right. They believe in 'international banker' (read: Jewish) conspiracies, etc. They also tend to be fundamentalist Christians. (Same with many Objectivists despite Ayn Rand's stringent atheism)

Much like the Republicans and Democrats, the Libertarians are a big tent. Libertarians can range from Bill Maher to Bob Barr to Bo Gritz.

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