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2008 US Election Predictions & Election night talk


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This is not for political argument.

This is a thread where you can post your predictions for the election and talk about it as it's happening on election night

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States that Obama may lose; North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Indiana

States that McCain may lose; Arizona, Georgia, West Virgina

The rest I am pretty sure about.

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I belive this is going to be alot closer then everyone says but Obama is still going to win. I belive the majoirty of undecideds will go for Mccain. Not enough to put him over the top but enough to make it close. Ohio could tip as could Florida. Rasmussen polls suggest the race is tightening in Virginia. North Carolina I don't like has a chance to go Obama nor does Indiana, ND or MT. Missouri has a chance to tip but I doubt it.

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The polls had Bush behind by 6% in 2004 going into election night. Exit polls at 5:00 PM had Bush down by 12%. Bush ended up winning so basically I'm saying anything can happen.

Really? I thought Bush was about 3% ahead in the exit polls. Anyway, i think Obama will win with 353 Electoral Votes to McCain's 185.

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The polls had Bush behind by 6% in 2004 going into election night. Exit polls at 5:00 PM had Bush down by 12%. Bush ended up winning so basically I'm saying anything can happen.

Wrong. In fact I was watching CNN right now and Wolf was saying how Bush was up 2-3 points going into the election. Obama is up 7-8 points. Face it, it's over. :rolleyes:

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Wrong. In fact I was watching CNN right now and Wolf was saying how Bush was up 2-3 points going into the election. Obama is up 7-8 points. Face it, it's over. :rolleyes:

Nothing is over until November 4th when the people vote. Don't jump the gun anything I can happen.

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Well you have to concede that theres a slight chance Mccain will win and I'll concede that its extremely unlikely.

For McCain to win he has to sweep every toss up state, take Penn where Obama has a double-digit lead and then take either CO, NH or NV.

He has a chance. But polling sites put an Obama victory at around 97.5% likely and 270 to win predicts that a 380-400 Obama landslide is more likely than a 270 McCain victory.

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There is a difference between jumping the gun and being realistic.

Yes there is but no matter what the polls say for you to say that the race is over is jumping the gun. The youth vote has statiscally never went out to vote in large numbers and Obama needs them to win. So we will see what happens on Tuesday.

For McCain to win he has to sweep every toss up state, take Penn where Obama has a double-digit lead and then take either CO, NH or NV. He has a chance. But polling sites put an Obama victory at around 97.5% likely and 270 to win predicts that a 380-400 Obama landslide is more likely than a 270 McCain victory.

There is no way that Obama will win 400 EV. Even if he won all the swing states and Georgia he still wouldn't have 400 and I don't think he'll win every swing state.

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The youth vote has statiscally never went out to vote in large numbers and Obama needs them to win.

Take a look at Gallup's voter models. Even the one where it assumes standard turnout (the Traditional model) Obama is still ahead. So no, he doesn't need the youth vote to win.

I'm not jumping the gun myself though it's more likely than not Obama is going to win, but many polls that show Obama ahead are not attempting to model a different and unexpected turn-out. I don't really see where you're getting "he needs the youth vote to win" from.

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Basically, I am following the campaign closely as a Canadian living within a one-hour drive to the US border.

I am not a card carrying member of any US Party or Canadian Party.

Also, I hope for all Americans here that you will all vote this Tuesday, if that haven't been done yet.

I think that McCain had some momentum right now and we must not forget about the Bradley effect.

However, I think that Obama will win by a very small margin of 273-265.

There are my predictions for battleground states:

New Mexico:

NM will vote Democrat.

Colorado:

Colorado will vote Democrat for two reasons:

1)The high proportion of new residents from blue states.

2)The arrival of many Latinos in the last few years.

Nevada:

Nevada will vote GOP basically due to the historical low-turnout in the Las Vegas area.

Iowa:

Will be democrat.

Ohio:

I went to Ohio this summer on vacation and I must say two things:

1)The rural areas are Conservatives.

2)Basically, only cities like Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo and Cincinnati are the main voting base for the Dems in Ohio. But, the urban white blue-collar voters are less prone to be Dems then in other urban areas in the USA.

I will guess a narrow GOP lead.

Virginia and North Carolina:

I have difficulty seeing these states as blue states because:

1)The urban voters base for the Dems is very volatile especially among white voters. I think that the Virginia results will be played in the Norfolk, Virginia Beach and Richmond area.

2)The rural part is as conservative as any other red state.

Florida

Florida will be slight GOP for two reasons:

1)The high proportion of seniors who are less prone to vote for Obama and their turnout is high as compared to other groups.

2)Northern Florida has a higher turnout than the Miami-Dale area.

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Thats a pretty fair map. I'm still skeptical about NC flipping despite the polls. Other than that though lookin good.

Agreed. On my map, North Carolina and Missouri are the pair I'm least sure about. Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Arizona, Georgia—I think all will be close, but ultimately Republican.

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Thats a pretty fair map. I'm still skeptical about NC flipping despite the polls. Other than that though lookin good.

I am very skeptical about North Carolina due to recent polls, other then that I think that Ohio and Florida are now too close to call.

Virginia will be a very tight race, it will be interesting to see!

Other than that, which states do you think that both parties will have their highest scores?

For the Dems, I am thinking about:

-D.C. of course!

-Massachussetts

-Vermont

-Maine

For the GOP, I am thinking about:

-Utah

-Wyoming

-Oklahoma

-Nebraska

-Kansas

-North Dakota (not sure)

-South Dakota (not sure)

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Take a look at Gallup's voter models. Even the one where it assumes standard turnout (the Traditional model) Obama is still ahead. So no, he doesn't need the youth vote to win.

I'm not jumping the gun myself though it's more likely than not Obama is going to win, but many polls that show Obama ahead are not attempting to model a different and unexpected turn-out. I don't really see where you're getting "he needs the youth vote to win" from.

He needs the youth vote because that's what CNN, MSNBC and others are saying and even though there are only 2 days left in the election McCain has been building up momentum, probably not enough for him to win, but even Gallup has McCain gaining ground. So for Obama to absolutely win he'll need the youth vote. Without it McCain has a slim chance to actually pull an upset and win.

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He needs the youth vote because that's what CNN, MSNBC and others are saying and even though there are only 2 days left in the election McCain has been building up momentum, probably not enough for him to win, but even Gallup has McCain gaining ground. So for Obama to absolutely win he'll need the youth vote. Without it McCain has a slim chance to actually pull an upset and win.

Ah, I see what you're saying. He doesn't need the youth vote, but if he gets it it's certain that's won. Yeah, I agree with that.

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Yes there is but no matter what the polls say for you to say that the race is over is jumping the gun. The youth vote has statiscally never went out to vote in large numbers and Obama needs them to win. So we will see what happens on Tuesday.

There is no way that Obama will win 400 EV. Even if he won all the swing states and Georgia he still wouldn't have 400 and I don't think he'll win every swing state.

Arizona, South Dakota and West Virgina are leaning and swing states.

Arizona and West Virgina are tossup.

South Dakota is a close leaning state.

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I predict Kerry States + IA + CO + NM + NV + MO + VA + NC + FL + OH + IN + ND. That would be a 378 EV win. For the popular vote I predict it will be 53-46. I think Obama's ground game will give him all the tossups. Maybe I'm too optimistic, we'll see. The only other state I think Obama could conceivably win on election day is GA (if African-American turnout is way higher than expected), and he could win NE-02's singular EV.

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Virginia is one of the first states to close it's polls so if Obama wins it i think the election will be over.

Yeah but the pundits probably won't declare Obama the winner until PA is called. Last election it got called early, but then tightened quite a bit, so chances are it will be a while until it's called this time.

Another one to look out for is IN, which closes even earlier then VA. If it's too close to call or even called in Obama's favor we'll know Obama has won.

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When McCain and the media say "The race is tightening" it's actually giving Obama an advantage, because it will make more people vote, and the higher the turnout, the more chance Obama has of winning. The race is not tightening, in fact Obama's Gallup lead is now 11-13 points, as high as it ever has been.

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