United States 2012

[Kauai]

United States 2012

In 2008 Barack Obama won the election by a wide margin against John McCain [ pictured below ] while the Democrats swept into congress across the country in numbers not seen in decades. They quickly got to work solving Americas problems, and the problems in 2008 were solved by 2010 where Democrats managed to pick up even more seats and governors. The troops are now home, regulation has increased, international relations are better than ever and President Obama enjoys approval ratings in the mid 60's.

The Republicans meanwhile, facing questions of long-term viability and being decimated even further, held a number of conventions around the country where the remaining Republican governors and Senators called upon the party to take " Radical steps to completely reform itself ".

New leaders have taken a-hold of the party now, and the Republicans are hoping to present a new front for ' Change ' just as President Obama did in 08. Can they face a popular President however, who looks set to gain another term?

2008 Election

Democrats

President Barack Obama

Senator Hillary Clinton [ Off ]

Vice-President Joe Biden [ Off ]

Republicans

Governor Haley Barbour

Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison

House Minority Leader Eric Cantor

Governor Bobby Jindal

Senate Minority Leader John Thune

Governor Tim Pawlenty

Governor Sarah Palin

The only problem I see with this is allocating ECs and Delegates with the new 2012 population. Suggestions?

[Johnny08]

Democrats

President Barack Obama

Senator Hillary Clinton [ Off ]

Vice-President Joe Biden [ Off ]

Republicans

Governor Haley Barbour

Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison

House Minority Leader Eric Cantor

Senator Gordon Smith

Governor Sarah Palin

The only problem I see with this is allocating ECs and Delegates with the new 2012 population. Suggestions?

I would say leave the delegates how they are, and I think they are some other likely 2012 candidates for President that you missed, too. Gordon Smith is looking likely to be defeated for re-election. Bobby Jindal, John Thune, and Tim Pawlenty are possible contenders.

[Kauai]

I would say leave the delegates how they are, and I think they are some other likely 2012 candidates for President that you missed, too. Gordon Smith is looking likely to be defeated for re-election. Bobby Jindal, John Thune, and Tim Pawlenty are possible contenders.

Added them. I'll also be posting issues soon.

[mz452]

I would certainly add candidates. I will make a list and post it a little later.

[VoteGOP]

No way in hell Obama gets 4101 EVs. Geogria? Are you f'ing serious. Thats a partisan map If I ever saw one.

[mz452]

Boston Tea

Charles Jay

Darryl W. Perry

Jason Gatties

Thomas Knapp

Constitution

Alan Keyes

Chuck Baldwin

Darrell Castle

Jerome Corsi

Jim Clymer

Michael Peroutka

Democrat

Barack Obama

Chet Edwards

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Green

Cynthia McKinney

David Cobb

Gayle McLaughlin

John Eder

Kat Swift

Matt Gonzalez

Pat LaMarche

Rich Whitney

Rosa Clemente

Independent

Ralph Nader

Michael Bloomberg

Libertarian

Bill Redpath

Bob Barr

George Phillies

Mary Ruwart

Mike Jingozian

Steve Kubby

Wayne Allyn Root

Prohibition

Gene Amondson

Reform

Frank McEnulty

Ted Weill

Republican

Bobby Jindal

Carly Fiorina

Charlie Crist

Christine Todd Whitman

Chuck Hagel

Condoleezza Rice

Connie Mack III

Dave Heineman

Don Nickles

Donald Carcieri

Eric Cantor

Frank Keating

Haley Barbour

J.C. Watts

Jeb Bush

Jim DeMint

Joe Lieberman

John Boehner

John Kasich

John Thune

Jon Huntsman, Jr.

Judd Gregg

Kay Bailey Hutchison

Lamar Alexander

Linda Lingle

Lisa Murkowitz

Mark Sanford

Michael Steele

Mike Huckabee

Mike Pence

Mitt Romney

Olympia Snowe

Pat McCrory

Paul Ryan

Roger Wicker

Sam Brownback

Sarah Palin

Shelley Moore Capito

Sonny Perdue

Thomas Kean

Tim Pawlenty

Tom McClintock

Tom Ridge

Socialism and Liberation

Gloria La Riva

Socialist Party USA

Brian Moore

Eric Chester

Stewart Alexander

Indecision America

Bill Maher

Stephen Colbert

Jon Stewart

My major focus would be to include third parties.

[Johnny08]

No way in hell Obama gets 4101 EVs. Geogria? Are you f'ing serious. Thats a partisan map If I ever saw one.

According to that map, all the states currently listed as "toss-up" break for Obama. Likely? No. Partisan? Possibly. Was your response necessary? No.

[VoteGOP]

According to that map, all the states currently listed as "toss-up" break for Obama. Likely? No. Partisan? Possibly. Was your response necessary? No.

Why was it unnecessary. I was stating the utter bias and unlikelyhood of that map. If theres to be so much disagreement why don't we wait till the election?

[Johnny08]

Why was it unnecessary. I was stating the utter bias and unlikelyhood of that map. If theres to be so much disagreement why don't we wait till the election?

Because it is a SCENARIO. In his SCENARIO Obama cruises and has an extemely successful first term.

Scenario (n.)

1. An outline of the plot of a dramatic work, giving particulars as to the scenes, characters, situations, etc.

2. The outline or manuscript of a motion picture or television program, giving the action in the order in which it takes place, the description of scenes and characters, etc.

3. An imagined or projected sequence of events, especially any of several detailed plans or possibilities

In his imagined sequence of events Obama won handily.

[VoteGOP]

Because it is a SCENARIO. In his SCENARIO Obama cruises and has an extemely successful first term.

Scenario (n.)

1. An outline of the plot of a dramatic work, giving particulars as to the scenes, characters, situations, etc.

2. The outline or manuscript of a motion picture or television program, giving the action in the order in which it takes place, the description of scenes and characters, etc.

3. An imagined or projected sequence of events, especially any of several detailed plans or possibilities

In his imagined sequence of events Obama won handily.

Then if I were to make a 2012 scenario in which Mccain won 538-0 in 2008 there would be no objection from you r the liberal majoirty here?

[Johnny08]

Then if I were to make a 2012 scenario in which Mccain won 538-0 in 2008 there would be no objection from you r the liberal majoirty here?

Not from me, I don't care what scenario you make. If you were to make a scenario like that I would call you the ultimate hypocrite however. His map is something that "could" happen on Tuesday. It's far from likely, but McCain is winning Georgia by like 2% which makes it a statistical tie. Don't get me wrong I think that Georgia, Missouri, West Virginia, and North Dakota are all going to go for McCain, but as the polls stand right now, they are ties.

[ElectricMonk]

Then if I were to make a 2012 scenario in which Mccain won 538-0 in 2008 there would be no objection from you r the liberal majoirty here?

I have no objection to any scenario, ever. If someone wants to do it, then do it. However I will also point out what is plausible and realistic from a counterfactual perspective, and what is not.

There's a difference between plausible based on current conditions, and fantasy land. For example I think Obama is going to lose West Virginia, Arizona, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, and probably at least one and maybe all three of: Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina. For the first group of states he's done not more than four to eight points, and for the second group he's within the margin of error either leading or trailing slightly.

However based on the current polling trends it is possible that he does win all those of states, albeit not very likely.

A McCain victory is also possible, albeit unlikely. However if McCain does win it is impossible for him to get 538. 270+? Yes. 300? Very unlikely, but also possible. 375? 1 in 10000. 400? Impossible.

If you were to start further back, say Obama melts down in September, the economy stays good, and national security becomes the big issue then perhaps McCain could start considering the upper 300s, but the 400s remain out of reach.

This scenario is basically based on Obama capturing the remaining undecided voters, Democratic base turnout up, and Republican base turnout down. It's improbable, but possible. In this particular scenario I'd consider West Virginia the least likely state for Obama to win, followed by Georgia & North Dakota. But all three remain possible.

A different scenario, say one where Clinton pulls out a very narrow victory based on superdelegates which winds up pissing off Obama voters more then Obama pissed off Clinton voters in our timeline and McCain picks—say—Tom Ridge as VP and then runs a brilliant campaign… well maybe then you could get your McCain landslide in a realistic fashion as well.

But a McCain landslide with a point-of-difference starting right now is essentially impossible while an Obama landslide based on current conditions is possible.

[Johnny08]

I agree with everything you said except for the Ridge part, the GOP base would not show up. His best pick would have been John Thune or Tim Pawlenty IMO

[Kauai]

All the states I posted, Obama is within less then 5 points of winning. As stated, Georgia is within 2-3 points for Obama.

Abe; If you don't like it, get out and don't come back. This is a scenario, not my prediction. If you continue to make unneeded comments, I'll put you on my ignore list so you cant post.

The above map, as stated, is totally possible, albeit still not my prediction. It's not NEARLY impossible, though.

Also. Thanks, Matty.

[VoteGOP]

All the states I posted, Obama is within less then 5 points of winning. As stated, Georgia is within 2-3 points for Obama.

Abe; If you don't like it, get out and don't come back. This is a scenario, not my prediction. If you continue to make unneeded comments, I'll put you on my ignore list so you cant post.

The above map, as stated, is totally possible, albeit still not my prediction. It's not NEARLY impossible, though.

Also. Thanks, Matty.

I'm just wondering why you chose to give EVERY swing state to Obama. Obama is going to win this year we can all agree on that but he can't pull every single swing state.

[Kauai]

I'm just wondering why you chose to give EVERY swing state to Obama. Obama is going to win this year we can all agree on that but he can't pull every single swing state.

I don't think he can. This is a scenario though... I've seen scenarios that were actually unrealistic rather than just on the outerbounds... So making a deal of it like Abe did was stupid. I wanted to totally decimate the Republican Party so they could all get freaked out and thus they would totally reform themselves. " WE HAVE TO RADICALLY CHANGE OUR PARTY, AND QUICK! "

I still gotta figure out what that means, probably getting back to the " Lets make America great! " mentality and a few issue changes.

[Sean]

As per 538.com, the chances of an Obama landslide (375+ EVs) are several times those of McCain actually winning. imething like 37.24 to 4.3. Do I see anyone berating potential scenarios in which McCain wins as unrealistic?

Anyway, why don't we all just put our 2012 scenarios on hold for 5 days and see who actually wins?

[VoteGOP]

I don't think he can. This is a scenario though... I've seen scenarios that were actually unrealistic rather than just on the outerbounds... So making a deal of it like Abe did was stupid. I wanted to totally decimate the Republican Party so they could all get freaked out and thus they would totally reform themselves. " WE HAVE TO RADICALLY CHANGE OUR PARTY, AND QUICK! "

I still gotta figure out what that means, probably getting back to the " Lets make America great! " mentality and a few issue changes.

Well a scenario where the GOP was dazed and confused would be an interseting one. I wouldn't want to see them move to the left though the religious right it too powerful for them to get away with it. I was thinking a 2012 scenrio where Mccain squeaks by but works with the dems in congress and hands out more and more money to wall street. The economy gets worse everyone is mad at both parties and the libertarians rise to become viable.

[Kauai]

Well a scenario where the GOP was dazed and confused would be an interseting one. I wouldn't want to see them move to the left though the religious right it too powerful for them to get away with it. I was thinking a 2012 scenrio where Mccain squeaks by but works with the dems in congress and hands out more and more money to wall street. The economy gets worse everyone is mad at both parties and the libertarians rise to become viable.

That would be interesting. I could help come up with candidates and events, etc etc?

[VoteGOP]

That would be interesting. I could help come up with candidates and events, etc etc?

Yeah yeah. I've got a few more 2012 speculative ideas I'm going to condense into one thread.

[Johnny08]

Instead of the Libertarians becoming powerful, you could create a "moderate party" containing members of the House who voted against the bailout

[VoteGOP]

Instead of the Libertarians becoming powerful, you could create a "moderate party" containing members of the House who voted against the bailout

That may be an idea. See my other thread with my detailed proposal for the scenatio.

[Sean]

Instead of the Libertarians becoming powerful, you could create a "moderate party" containing members of the House who voted against the bailout

It wasn't the moderates who opposed the bailout, though. It was the liberal and conservative wings of the Democratic and Republican Parties. It was the 'moderates' who supported it.

[mrmayhem87]

Vote GOP. There is no liberal majority on this board. Out of the 10 scenarios I have downloaded from this board 8 of them have been clearly biased towards the GOP. Yet whenever a "Liberal" makes a scenario biased towards the Democratic party, you Republicans go apeshit.

If you can make unfairly biased GOP scenarios, we sure as hell can make unfairly biased Democratic Scenarios and there is not a damn thing you can do about it.

By the way. Whoever is creating scenario make sure that it is called the Democratic party not the Dmocrat party. Republicans like to call us the democrat party and leave off the ic at the end.

[Kauai]

Vote GOP. There is no liberal majority on this board. Out of the 10 scenarios I have downloaded from this board 8 of them have been clearly biased towards the GOP. Yet whenever a "Liberal" makes a scenario biased towards the Democratic party, you Republicans go apeshit.

If you can make unfairly biased GOP scenarios, we sure as hell can make unfairly biased Democratic Scenarios and there is not a damn thing you can do about it.

By the way. Whoever is creating scenario make sure that it is called the Democratic party not the Dmocrat party. Republicans like to call us the democrat party and leave off the ic at the end.

Thank you MrMayhem!

I've noticed this as well, ESPECIALLY when I was going to make a scenario where Obama had a good first term, and I got literally BASHED by three different people.

And then they turned around and made a scenario " IN RESPONSE TO KAUAIS SCENARIO " where Reps dominate. Which I had no problem with, but it shows how childish they are.

I don't have a problem with biased scenarios as long as you clearly present them as such. For instance " The Dems have had a bad year due to -this- and -this- and -that- so the Reps are up "

But I do have to say ALL of the scenarios you guys make are biased it seems. And to unrealistic levels, such as.....

In. this scenario has Obama at UNDER the amount of money that even the unviable reps have...

WTF...?