Jump to content
270soft Forum

2016 - Projected Scenario


zion
 Share

Recommended Posts

I am working on a 2016 scenario, it has reworked E.C. votes, which make southern states more populus, so more votes, but with some states politically moderating. These are all taken from census projections and research from that. I've gone through all the states, and have projected Governors and Senators in office in 2016. You might disagree with my picks, but just work with it. I've highlighted a few who i think will run, please add your suggestions.

Gov. Artur Davis (D-AL) Bluedog

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL)

Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL)

Gov. Sean Parnell (R-AK)

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK)

Rep. Sarah Palin (R-AK)

Gov. Jan Brewer (R-AZ)

Sen. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)

Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ)

Gov. Bill Halter (D-AR)

Sen. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)

Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR)

Gov. Gavin Newsome (D-CA) Left candidate

Sen. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA)

Sen. Antonio Villareagosa (D-CA)

Gov. Barbara O’Brien (D-CO)

Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO)

Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO)

Gov. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT)

Sen. Jodi Rell (R-CT)

Sen. Ned Lamont (D-CT)

Gov. Jack Markell (D-DE)

Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE)

Sen. John Carney (D-DE)

Gov. Marco Rubio (R-FL) Republican Right

Sen. Charlie Christ (R-FL)

Sen. Debbie Wasserman Shultz (D-FL)

Gov. Shirley Franklin (D-GE)

Sen. Jonny Isakson (R-GE)

Sen. Vernon Jones (D-GE)

Gov. Ed Case (D-HI)

Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-HI)

Sen. Linda Lingle (R-HI)

Gov. Jack Riggs (R-ID)

Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID)

Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)

Gov. Lisa Madigan (D-IL)

Sen. Rham Emmanuelle (D-IL)

Sen. Jesse Jackson Jnr. (D-IL)

Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN)

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN)

Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN)

Gov. Patty Judge (D-IO)

Sen. Tom Vilsack (D-IO)

Sen. Chet Culver (D-IO)

Gov. Sam Brownback (R-KS)

Sen. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS)

Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS)

Gov. Daniel Mongiardo (D-KY)

Sen. Geoff Davis (R-KY)

Sen. Ben Chandler (D-KY)

Gov. Mitch Landrieu (D-LO)

Sen. David Vitter (R-LO)

Sen. John Kennedy (R-LO)

Former Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LO) Republican frontrunner

Gov. Beth Edmonds (D-ME)

Sen. Olympia Snow (R-ME)

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)

Gov. Anthony Brown (D-ML)

Sen. Kweisi Mfume (D-ML)

Sen. John Sarbanes (D-ML)

Gov. Tim Murray (D-MA)

Sen. Deval Patrick (D-MA)

Sen. Caroline Kennedy (D-MA)

Gov. Andy Dillon (D-MI)

Sen. Dennis Archer (D-MI)

Sen. Jennifer Granholm (D-MI)

Gov. Norm Coleman (R-MN)

Sen. Al Franken (D-MN)

Sen. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)

Gov. Phil Bryant (R-MS)

Sen. Hayley Barbour (R-MS)

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS)

Gov. Jay Nixon (D-MO)

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO)

Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO)

Gov. Roy Brown (R-MT)

Sen. Denny Rehberg (R-MT)

Sen. Max Bacacus (D-MT)

Fmr. Gov. Brian Schweizter Outsider

Gov. Rick Sheehy (R-NE)

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE)

Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE)

Gov. Jon Porter (D-NV)

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

Sen. Jack Carter (D-NV)

Gov. Jeb Bradley (R-NH)

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)

Sen. John Lynch (D-NH)

Gov. Thomas Kean (R-NJ)

Sen. Bob Mendez (D-NJ)

Sen. Anne Milgram (D-NJ)

Gov. Heather Wilson (R-NM)

Sen. Tom Udall (D-NM)

Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)

Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)

Sen. Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)

Sen. Hillary Clinton (R-NY)

Gov. Beverly Perdue (D-NC)

Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC)

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC)

Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R-ND)

Sen. Wayne Stenehjem (R-ND)

Sen. Bob Stenehjem (R-ND)

Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH)

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

Sen. Red Strickland (D-OH)

Gov. Mary Fallin (R-OK)

Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK)

Sen. Brad Henry (D-OK)

Gov. Bruce Starr (R-OR)

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR)

Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR)

Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA)

Sen. Bob Casey Jnr. (D-PA)

Sen. Chris Matthews (D-PA)

Gov. Scott Avedisian (R-RI)

Sen. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI)

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)

Gov. Inez Tenenbaum (D-SC)

Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC)

Sen. Mark Sanford (R-SC)

Gov. Tom Daschle (D-SD)

Sen. John Thune (R-SD)

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD)

Gov. Bill Haslam (R-TN)

Sen. Harold Ford (D-TN)

Sen. Zack Wamp (R-TN)

Gov. Chet Edwards (D-TX)

Sen. Tom Leppert (R-TX)

Sen. Rick Perry (R-TX)

Gov. Chris Cannon (R-UT)

Sen. John Huntsman (R-UT)

Sen. Rob Bishop (R-UT)

Gov. Gaye Symington (D-VT)

Sen. Howard Dean (D-VT)

Sen. Jim Douglas (R-VT)

Gov. Bob McDonnell (R-VA)

Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA)

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA)

Gov. Dino Rossi (R-WA)

Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA)

Sen. Rob McKenna (R-WA)

Gov. Shelley Moore Capito (D-WV)

Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV)

Sen. Joe Machin (D-WV)

Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI)

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI)

Sen. Jim Doyle (D-WI)

Gov. Matt Mead (R-WY)

Sen. Mike Enzi (R-WY)

Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

to be honest, i'm trying not to include any of this years presidential hopefulls.

McCain and Biden will both be way past their sell by date, and whoever wins the presidency will stay on for 8 years. Palin i doupt has much of a political future after this cycle, or a Vice Presidency anyhow.

If obama loses the presidency, it will be a huge political blow. could sink him

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know you said to just work with these predictions, but some are blatantly ridiculous, and would make for an entirely irrelevent scenario:

-Chuck Hagel is retiring in 2008. You think he's going to rerun?

-Neither Boxer or Feinstein have shown any inclination to retire, but you have them both out, one in fact losing to a democrat. Same w/ Durbin

-Since when does every former governor run for and win a senate seat?

-I don't know what state ML is, but I'll assume its related to Maryland

-I doubt Giuliani would even run against Schumer, let alone win

-Interesting that Caroline Kennedy all of a sudden decided to get into politics, then went on to beat John Kerry in a primary...

-Can't see any situation where Dean runs for Senate

-Good to see Rockefeller is still kicking at 79, and Lugar at 84

-If the South is getting more votes, I'm pretty sure the Dems would force legislation for DC to have representation

-Did Franken beat Coleman, then Coleman won Governor, or did Coleman beat Franken, then Franken ran again and won. Both seem unlikely

-Certainly don't see anyone, even Sarah Palin, going from Governor/VP Candidate to Representative

Is there anyone in the Obama Administration that could run? I assume that must be where Richardson is. How about Condi or Petraeus?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

to be honest, i'm trying not to include any of this years presidential hopefulls.

McCain and Biden will both be way past their sell by date, and whoever wins the presidency will stay on for 8 years. Palin i doupt has much of a political future after this cycle, or a Vice Presidency anyhow.

If obama loses the presidency, it will be a huge political blow. could sink him

What I'm saying is what will be the political landscape at the time of this? If its a two term Obama presidency then the GOP should be favored. If its a two term Mccain presidency then the dems should be favored. And if its two one termers then it should depend on the state of the nation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know you said to just work with these predictions, but some are blatantly ridiculous, and would make for an entirely irrelevent scenario:

-Chuck Hagel is retiring in 2008. You think he's going to rerun?

-Neither Boxer or Feinstein have shown any inclination to retire, but you have them both out, one in fact losing to a democrat. Same w/ Durbin

-Since when does every former governor run for and win a senate seat?

-I don't know what state ML is, but I'll assume its related to Maryland

-I doubt Giuliani would even run against Schumer, let alone win

-Interesting that Caroline Kennedy all of a sudden decided to get into politics, then went on to beat John Kerry in a primary...

-Can't see any situation where Dean runs for Senate

-Good to see Rockefeller is still kicking at 79, and Lugar at 84

-If the South is getting more votes, I'm pretty sure the Dems would force legislation for DC to have representation

-Did Franken beat Coleman, then Coleman won Governor, or did Coleman beat Franken, then Franken ran again and won. Both seem unlikely

-Certainly don't see anyone, even Sarah Palin, going from Governor/VP Candidate to Representative

Is there anyone in the Obama Administration that could run? I assume that must be where Richardson is. How about Condi or Petraeus?

What a nice person you must be! There is constructive criticism, and then there is blatant rude, nasty attitudes.

Feinstein would be 83 by 2016, and Boxer does face a challenge in 2010 if the GOP really do want to have a go.

Hagel is an oversight.

Maybe Kerry retires? this is a what if scenario after all.

You cant see a situation where dean will run? Thats interesting, cos plenty of Vermont politicos are predicting it. Are you a vermont insider?

Maybe you should just call up Obama and get him to sort out DC then? Realignment is based on census projections.Happens all the time, Texas and other mexico border states are really clocking up population growths, quite a bit of it hispanic too.

So, shut up or put up. But your attitude stinks. Worst of all, where are your suggestions? Crapping from great heights? Where are your scenarios? Prey tell. I'm dying to play some.

I guess my general trend will be that the GOP are favord. More because of demographic changes, rather than incumbency factors.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is constructive criticism, and then there is blatant rude, nasty attitudes.

Well you've clearly displayed you are in favor of blatant rude, nasty attitudes. I didn't mean to offend you, but the information you gave didn't set up much of what is happening. Potential candidates might reflect the situation. Has there been another terrorist attack? Are we still at war in Iraq and/or Afghanistan, and are we in any other wars? What is the economic status of the country? Who has the Senate and House majorities after the 2014 election? All of this could affect the potential candidates in the 2012 election. Who ran on the losing ticket in 2012? Could the bottom half of that ticket be a potential candidate? Are there cabinet members who could be candidates? How about military officers?

On your comments:

-Yes I messed up on Feinstein with age, but if Lugar is there at 84 that shouldn't rule out her at 83

-Dean seems pretty happy as chairman of the DNC, and I'm not sure a Senate seat would be a move up. But if he does become Senator, who is the new chairperson? Are they a potential candidate?

-Not quite sure why I'm calling Obama about DC statehood. As for redistribution, who is gaining and losing votes? You say states in the South are gaining, but projections I've seen have Louisiana losing one due to Katrina, and states like Utah and Nevada gaining.

And then you didn't answer any other questions. What happened to Schumer and Durbin? Why are all these governors now in the Senate? How'd Palin end up in the house?

Is there anyone in the Obama Administration that could run? I assume that must be where Richardson is. How about Condi or Petraeus?

-I guess those are the suggestions I didn't give

But if you'd like some more suggestions, with 2016 ages:

Former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL), 63

Representitive Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), 70 (no, he wouldn't have a good shot. Has that ever stopped him?)

Former VP Al Gore (D-TN), 70

Former Senator Jim Webb (D-VA), 70

Former Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC), 65

Representitive John Boehner (R-OH), 66

Former Governor Matt Blunt (R-MO), 45

Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA), 69

Former Lt. Governor Michael Steele (R-MD), 58

Former Representitive J.C. Watts (R-OH), 58

Former Governor David Paterson (D-NY), 62

Of people you listed but didn't bold:

Napolitano, Crist, Emanuel, Jindal (which I think was just a mistake), Pawlenty, McCaskill, Menendez, Clinton, Strickland, Casey, Daschle, Feingold

If you have more information about where the country is in 2016, that would probably help me, and others, suggest more/better candidates. Again, I didn't mean to offend you, I just didn't feel you provided ample information that allowed for good suggestions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

no. im talking population demographics.

there are huge changes in population demographic, particularly with more people moving to border and southern states. This means that by census time, electoral college and congressional allowances will have altered reflecting this, givning texas for example, 40+ EVs, whilst New Englang loses in total some 15 or so.

however,ideology will shift, leaving places like virginia and penn more solidly blue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For exemple, I think a plausible thing for 2016, is having four parties in the USA due to internal conflicts in the DP and the GOP.

Liberal-Democrat Party (center-left):

Dennis Kucinich

Gavin Newsom

Antonio Villareagosa

Progressive Party (center-bluedog):

Tim Pawlenty

Mark Warner

Arthur Davis

National Party (center-right):

Mitt Romney

Bobby Jindal

Jeb Bush

Charlie Crist

Mike Sanford

American Party (right):

Mike Huckabee

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For exemple, I think a plausible thing for 2016, is having four parties in the USA due to internal conflicts in the DP and the GOP.

Liberal-Democrat Party (center-left):

Dennis Kucinich

Gavin Newsom

Antonio Villareagosa

Progressive Party (center-bluedog):

Arnold SchwarzeneggerTim Pawlenty

Mark Warner

Arthur Davis

National Party (center-right):

Mitt Romney

Bobby Jindal

Jeb Bush

Charlie Crist

Mike Sanford

American Party (right):

Mike Huckabee

Schwarzenagger wasn't born in the US he can't run.

Also, I doubt that the parties will break up, I could see third parties becoming more relevant, and maybe a party like Roosevelt's Bull Moose every few years, but to have both parties break up would be dumb. It would break the electoral system, as no party would be able to get to 270. Look at Canada, even weith tihs system and five major parteis, it is almost impossible to get a majority with the BQ taking 50 seats out of play.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A good idea for a viable third party will be a sort of Progressive Party (with about 10% at the vote at the start of the election) which will be a centrist coalition of moderate Democrats and moderate Republican especially strong in purple states, in the South and in the West.

Maybe with Mark Warner or Stephanie Herseth as potential candidates.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A few notes on Michigan

You might want to switch Dillon and Archer- Archer is widely thought to be one of the frontrunners for the Dem. nomination in 2010. Granholm is a little iffy, she honestly isn't that popular.

Here is my speculation for 2016, based on pure speculation

Gov- Archer, in the midst of 2nd term.

Sen- Andy Levin in dad's old seat (he will be qualified by 2014 when he would have to run)

Sen- Mike Cox (He's the sort of moderate republican who could beat Stabenow in a enviroment less toxic than 2006 when she edged out Bouchard) or Stabenow, who isn't that old and is starting to get liked.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Would it be alright with you if I posted my own state by state rundown?

Also Demographic shifts are still favoring Democrats who, by 2016 will have turned New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico blue and likely have turned Montana, Arizona, and North Carolina into swing states. Texas will also be a much lighter shade of red after Bush leaves office. The Republicans aren't really showing positive trends anywhere but the deep south where they are already in control.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...