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Well, still a good outcome. Technically, if it were a college level debate, Obama would probably lose. He would win in speaker points (persuasivness, delivery,) but he would lose the arguments. Huntsm

Obama because I was barnstorming like crazy.

2008 election scenario I was Al Gore. I started in the primaries and won. I faced George Allen. This was on hard mode 2008 election Results: Al Gore 538 Electoral Votes 67% of the Popular Vote Geo

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  • 4 weeks later...

This was probably one of the most difficult victories, I have ever pulled off. It began when I won the 2008 Democratic nomination as former North Carolina Senator John Edwards after having a bitter primary battle with Senator Hillary Clinton (NY). In the end I managed to get Barack Obama's endorsement which single handingly got me the nomination. On the Republican side: former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani won convincingly after recieving Senator John McCain's endorsement in early April, then Giuliani easily crushed Senator Sam Brownback and former New York Governor George Pataki. Prior to the convention I selected former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack as my running mate, though at one stage I was considering asking Governor Pataki to join the ticket. Mayor Giuliani selected Floridian Senator Mel Martinez as his running mate. From the start of the General Election campaign the Giuliani-Martinez ticket was leading with 50 percent of the projected vote and 259 electoral votes, to the Edwards-Vilsack ticket which had 46.6 percent of the projected vote and 182 electoral votes. 3.3 percent of the American voters were undecided. At one stage in the campaign, Giuliani was leading with 55 percent of the vote, but that lead vanished after I (as John Edwards) single handingly brought the Giuliani campaign down with countless attack adds over Leadership, Integrity and the War in Iraq. On election day, there were five undecided states Florida, Pennslyvania, Oregon, Washington and New Mexico. Pennsylvania, Oregon and Washington went for me, New Mexico and Florida went for Giuliani. Here's the results.

presidentedwards50ww0.png

John Edwards (N.C) - Tom Vilsack (Iowa) 272 E.V. 50.6% 60,212, 139

Rudy Giuliani (N.Y) - Mel Martinez (FL) 266 E.V. 49.4% 58,827, 447

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Whenever I put former Senator George Allen on in the GOP Primaries he almost always wins the nomination. But when I ran as Joe Biden against him in the general election he lost by a landslide only recieving 34.4% of the popular vote and 103 Electoral Votes. Biden recieved 65.5% and 435 Electoral Votes.

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I ran as Edwards in a modified version of the 2008 game, where I majorly upped the starting cash for all the candidates to more realistic numbers. As I get sick of Guliani and McCain always winning the GOP nod, I turned them off. On the GOP side, Gingrich, Romney and Brownback were in the running. On the Democratic side, Clinton, Edwards, Biden and Vilsack were the contenders. I turned Badnarik on, as well.

The primaries were an interesting challenge. By using early turns to build ads and throw CPs into endorsements, I was able to go into January 08 with a ton of cash, footsoldiers and three pro-me and one anti-Clinton ad in my arsenal. I got most of the relevant Iowa, Arizona and New Hampshire endorsements, ran a set of newspaper ads to build momentum nationwide, and poured effort into the Arizona, Iowa and New Hampshire trifecta. I pulled ahead in Iowa and Arizona, and was closing the gap with Clinton in New Hampshire when Biden won Iowa in an upset (something like 75% of undecideds swung to him), throwing my momentum for a loop. Quickly, Clinton won New Hampshire with Biden in second, and Biden won Arizona, followed by Vilsack, then Clinton, then me.

I continued to lose primaries, but by churning through ads and working myself to a collapse, I kept some positive momentum going. Leaks against Clinton had brought me up to even with her in the polls, and I was able to knock Vilsack out by giving him PIPs for an endorsement. This finally gave me the push I needed to start winning primaries. I swept most of Super Tuesday, and in mid-March Biden dropped out and endorsed me. I was now projected to win around 1900 delegates, with Clinton coming in with the rest. But as we pushed through to the end of the primaries, my momentum turned negative, and my margin kept closing. It didn't close fast enough, though, and I still won the nomination. I couldn't convince Hillary to drop out or support me, but by mid-June I was able to get her to sign on as my Veep, giving me an uncontested convention. Yay for dramatic primaries!

The Republican side was interesting, as well. Gingrich and Romney started out neck and neck, both at about 30% with Brownback trailing badly. They traded off in terms of polling leads and primary wins until the southern primaries hit in March, at which point Gingrich pulled out ahead. Brownback endorsed Gingrich and the former speaker had driven off Governor Romney by early April. I had bumped all their money for the primaries up, but only Gingrich was aggressive about spending his cash.

Going into the general, I had about a 44-40 lead throughout most of the summer. States wobbled about in terms of electoral support, but I had a majority edge the whole time. After the conventions, the Republicans got more of a bounce than I did, but only electorally. I was still a few points ahead, about 47 to 42. In the scramble to win my nomination, I'd focused a lot on organization building, fundraising and issue knowledge, but I'd lagged in debate preparation. This would prove costly.

Gingrich spent money heavily in September, but I held back for October, building a full arsenal of three pro-me, one anti-Gingrich TV spots. Since I can't target "fair" states in the new game for ads, I just kept redoing my "strategy states" every week to include all states I was leading in by less than five points or trailing in by less then eight. In October, I ran hard with ads, which offset my repeated debate losses to Gingrich. I had saved up three medium-damage scandals against Gingrich, and let them all go one week at a time starting in mid-October. Gingrich never got a bounce out of his debate wins, began running low on cash, and i kept rotating in ads and stomping across the nation. It was clear I was going to win -- all the "swing" states were in Republican territory. I ran my campaign into debt and myself to the edge of collapse by the last day, but things looked great!

polls-edwards.jpg

However, it's clear that despite running ahead, i never really closed the deal -- 10.6% of folks continued to be undecided up until the last day. That's probably what caused the crazy results:

election-edwards.jpg

It was a very decisive victory in my favor on election day. However, the results were often very surprising. Despite the fact that undecideds appeared to break heavily for me, Gingrich picked up all but one of the last-day "swing" states. Also, five states swapped columns at the last moment.

Polls showed me ahead in Oregon, but Gingrich won by 27,495 votes (49.7% to 47.8%).

Polls showed me ahead in Nevada, but Gingrich won by 1,455 votes (49.1% to 48.9%).

Polls showed me ahead in South Carolina, but Gingrich won by 93,561 votes (51.7% to 46.1%, not even close).

Polls showed Gingrich ahead in Kentucky, but I won by 45,358 votes (49.2% to 46.6%).

Polls showed Gingrich ahead in Alaska, but amazingly I won by 16,897 votes (49.5% to 43%).

Some might think these results are "problematic," but I'm thrilled -- it's realistic in my mind that per-state polling should be wrong, and aside from Alaska, none of these mostly-narrow wins are beyond the realm of reality. Clearly what was happening was that Republican voters weren't moving towards Gingrich as fast as Democrats moved to me, but eventually they did come home. And while I won the undecided voters at the last minute nationwide, those voters must have been clustered in the heavily-Democratic states that I won by landslides, because they surely weren't the deciding factor in the swing states or Nevada or Oregon!

Also, when states started to break in unexpected, but realistic, ways, it added drama to an election night that was expected to be (and, truly, ended up being) a blow-out.

The closest state was Mississippi, where I took 561,693 votes, and Gingrich beat me with 561,768 votes -- a 75-vote margin of victory, less than 1/1000 of the number of votes taken by the Libertarian.

The one bug I think is present in the game and in play here is that too many last-minute deciders go with a third party candidate. Badnarik's vote percentage nearly doubled between the last day polls and the final results. That shouldn't happen.

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The one bug I think is present in the game and in play here is that too many last-minute deciders go with a third party candidate. Badnarik's vote percentage nearly doubled between the last day polls and the final results. That shouldn't happen.

I've also noticed this. I played one game where Badarnik jumped from about 4% to nearly 11% in the election.

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This one from Clark/Bayh's 2008 v6 scenario:

pf1.JPG

Saved up my PIPs and got both Pataki and Romney to endorse me; by the time the game moved into the General Election, I had such a massive lead it was untrue. It was clear on election day that the critical factor wasn't whether I would win, it was whether I'd get up to 500 EVs.

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  • 5 weeks later...

I haven't given myself the time to play PF 2008+P before last night. The bloody game drew me in and meant I spent all night playing it! I'm sorry for the length of the post, but I felt I'd share my rediscovered joy of the game with you all.

I played with medium difficulty, and chose Barack Obama. I could tell, from the opening, that his latest surge in popularity hadn't been factored into the game, so it was always going to be an almighty uphill battle against a very dominant Clinton.

I was at around the 8% mark, but managed some good upsets, taking New Hampshire and California early on, which gave me a bit of new wind. I was helped quite significantly by winning one of the union endorsements, giving me a small army of footsoldiers early on.

I peaked about midway into the primaries, and then my campaign fell to the wayside a bit. Clinton had clearly concentrated on Edwards or Clark as the main adversary, so I had been able to build up a lot of positive momentum almost unnoticed. Now I was slowly gnawing into Clinton's predicted nomination win, and a barrage of negative ads hit me. This was Edwards' chance, as he took almost all the late primaries, but he never got above the 500 delegates-mark.

Vilsack never got going, and withdrew quite early on without. It stung when Clark withdrew and endorsed Clinton. Lucky for me Biden - at about the same support as Clark - did the same with me as the endorsed one a few weeks later.

Edwards' late run of form meant no one had the needed amount of delegates, but I felt quite sure of winning the nomination (despite this being my first game), as Edwards' relationship towards Clinton was 1 point compared to my 100 points.

In the Republican primary Giuliani and McCain were at it in a two-way cockfight, and between them won a lot of the early primaries, but then - as if out of nowhere - Romney's campaign gained serious traction and he ended up securing the nomination as early as April-May.

This of course was a challenge, as he had the campaign map to himself for months, and could build for the general election, whereas - at that time - I was still in the thick of primary action.

I feel I managed the general election rather well, especially considering there was quite a gorge between the polling numbers of Romney and myself just after the conventions had ended.

I chose John Kerry as my running mate. I considered Clinton, but she seemed weak in the primaries, and I saw Kerry as a way of securing the Pacific coast and the New England area. I briefly considered Bill Richardson too, but thought Kerry a better return.

I built heaps of foot soldiers and camped for quite a while in Florida. I think I had four times the foot soldiers of Romney, and this did tell in the final results. It became a lot closer than I had thought, because I frankly ran out of money about five days before election day. Romney managed to win over Pennsylvania and North Carolina in that space of time, and he also took Indiana - all three states won by less than a percentage point of the votes cast. Sickening.

In the end they were still counting in Iowa, Minnesota and Washington state, unable to call them. Incredibly Idaho was on the line as well, and Romney only took it with 51.5% of the votes. Iowa kept tipping early on, until it settled into about 52-53% for Romney. Only three points. So I now needed to win both Washington and Minnesota. Minnesota were the first to call: ~52% Obama! Washington did tip from side to side a lot early on, and for one terrifying moment, with about 70% of votes counted, it turned red. But, in the end: 51% Obama. With 276 Electoral votes I won the election, very pleasing.

I love the new election night set-up, it really seems to accomodate what people have been proposing on this message board in the past few years. It adds a lot of drama, and all the time you put into playing out the campaign feels worth it to a greater extent now. If only there was an option where you could save the result, so you could 1) look it up later, 2) share it with others, who could look at results on a state-by-state basis too.

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  • 3 weeks later...

I ran as Gore yesterday and had a very interesting election. I easily swept through the primaries winning Iowa and New Hampshire and then along with endorsements caused a domino effect and essentialy won every state afterwards (even with Clinton in it. I had to give Hillary the V-P spot though so she wouldn't attack me. I had the nomination about half-way through the primaries and at that point I was about even with the Republicans (Who were McCain, Gulliani, Brownback, and Romney). So I went on being slightly behind them for a few weeks when Brownback (Who had roughly 400 delagates) droped out and endoresed Romney. But even after all the votes were counted Romney was about 4 delagates shy of the nomination with McCain at 500 and Gulliani at 600. Knowing that I would much rather face Romney and Gulliani I used my remaining PiP's to have McCain just dropout and secure that not all the delagates would go to Gulliani. After Romney officaly had enough delagates Gulliani droped out a week later and all of the sudden the percentages for the general election decreased dramatically for the Republicans. The new ratio was roughly 55 (Dem)- 35 (Rep)- 9 (???)- 1 (Lib). I just ran the rest of the election as Al Gore would talking about the environment and the budget and pilled on a boat load of advertisments in the final week and won the election.

Gore/Clinton: 400 something: 65%

Romney/ Bush: 120 something: 29%

Badnarik/???: 0: 6%

P.S.- It was on Medium

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  • 2 weeks later...

This one was shocking, to me at least. (note: I played Clark/Bayh's 2008 v9 scenario set on hard, no spies)

I was playing as Frist and won the primaries against Giuliani in a really long Goldwater/Rockefeller style battle with everyone withdrawing sans endorsements throughout. Luckily my one endorsement, that of Romney, gave me enough delegates I could finally ignore Giuliani.

Meanwhile Gore and Edwards slugged it out across the country with Clinton withdrawing. Edwards freakin' conceded, allowing Gore something like 10 free weeks while I was still in the thick of it.

My high point of primary vote was 62.7% to 37.3%, but Giuliani stayed in the fight all the way to the nomination. Luckily I could now ignore him and focus on the general.

So we're a few weeks out and I'm taking in anywhere from a quarter million to a 1.6 million a turn… I'm running ads like crazy and putting foot soldiers everywhere while I increase Frist's debate/issue knowledge stats.

I pick Giuliani to be my VP and the general election kicks off and I have 180 foot soldiers (versus 6 on the Gore/Biden ticket). I ramp up advertising across my electoral strategy am spending a couple million a turn.

I stick Giuliani in California and New York and New England while I barnstorm and speech the whole country and things … well … they just shift. California goes tied, New York trends to me, I own Ohio, and Florida and and plenty of other states. The West is in play along with the North and the South/midwest are mine. Even New England is giving me New Hampshire, Mass., and Maine. The Republicans are back, baby.

Throughout I'm putting foot soldiers everywhere and before I began my long decline I have around 200 with 5 nearly everywhere. As the election goes on I can only replace foot soldiers in: New England and south to Virginia's border, the Canadian border states, and the West inc. California. Elsewhere they just die off and election day I'm down to 60 or so.

About a week before the election everything swings on me. California becomes Gore's (weakly), and a half dozen previously solid states come into play while my previous lead in New England is erased. Undecided of about a percentage point picked parties and the base intensified as far as I could tell.

So now Giuliani is giving speeches and barnstorming the heck out of California while Frist is in New England and Ohio (which went from Frist country to a tie!) and I open back up on the ads (if there had been one more day I would have been about 6 million dollars in debt) and work my guys to the bone.

Election night:

60.7% (69,452,881) to 39.3% (45,051,136)

and in the electoral college 521 to 17

Gore managed to win the states of Vermont and Washington, as well as D.C. and Puerto Rico.

I knew I was going to win, but I did better than FDR in '36 and I came so close to Nixon/Reagan's 49 states … I was very unhappy. Not least because Vermont and Washington were in play throughout until they solidified for Gore in the last week.

Since Gore actually spent time in Puerto Rico he won that easily and D.C. went for him with 70% which was not unexpected.

Anyway. Looks like Gore/Biden versus Frist/Giuliani was not a good match-up for the democrats :) I can only imagine how many congressional and senate seats I carried with me.

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  • 2 months later...

Oh I agree, but these lopsided victories are the exception (at least for me) and (note) are more likely to happen in Clark/Bayh's 2008 scenario then the official one.

Anyway both Nixon and Reagan pulled off these massive victories (albeit against weak Democratic candidates) so it's not entirely out of the question but in 2008 I agree, both sides have a great deal of the vote locked and are fighting over a relative handful of states and votes.

Anyway, most days on hard it's down to the wire and I have the edge because the computer player prefers spinning news and scandal to foot soldiers and GOTV.

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