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Fear and Loathing: on the Campaign Trail, '72


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1972 UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

DEMOCRATS

Senator Edmund Muskie - ME

Senator George McGovern - SD

Governor George Wallace - AL

Senator Edward Kennedy - MA (off by default)

Vice-President Hubert Humphrey - MN

Mayor John Lindsay - NY

Senator Eugene McCarthy - MN

Congresswoman Shirley Chisolm - NY

Delegate Walter Fauntroy - DC

Mayor Sam Yorty - CA

Governor Terry Sanford - NC

Congressman Wilbur Mills - AR

Senator Fred Harris - OK

Congresswoman Patsy Mink - HI

I need some advice on which candidates to drop. I've bolded the candidates that are in for sure. Like I said, any advice on which of the remaining candidates I should drop would be appreciated.

REPUBLICANS

President Richard Nixon

Congressman Pete McCloskey

Congressman John Ashbrook

Nixon should have 90% nationally.

LIBERTARIANS

John Hospers

The official spacebar candidate.

As far as the general election goes, I think nationally it will be Nixon - 50 Democrat - 35 at the beginning of the primaries, and Nixon - 55 Democrat - 35 for the general election only campaigns. This makes it difficult, yet not impossible to win as a Democrat.

Any suggestions on issues, candidates or anything else would be greatly appreciated. So far I've completed populations and electoral votes changes, and that's about it. I'm in the process of editing the number of delegates - I have the CQ book out from the library.

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I'll be one of your go to guys on this election. If you email me the scenario at hcallega@yahoo.com then i will work with candidates on the issues. As far as the issues themselves, many of the 1968 issues would probably be sufficent to start with. Of course Vietnam should be a major issue, and issues like bussing and Affirmative Action should repalce civil rights. Also, I would suggest renting One Shinning Moment, which deals with the McGovern campaign. Granted it is extremely pro-McGovern, but it does provide good information relating to the campaign. The Making of the President series is also always helpfull. Finally, this is also an easy scenario percentage wise, as in the Democratic primary most states voted regionally, for instance the west voted for McGovern, the midwest Humphrey, and the south Wallace. As you can see, I'm very excited about this.

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Senator Edmund Muskie - ME (slot 1)

Senator George McGovern - SD (slot 3)

Governor George Wallace - AL (slot 5)

Senator Edward Kennedy - MA (off by default) (Slot 2

Vice-President Hubert Humphrey - MN (slot 4)

Mayor John Lindsay - NY (slot 7)

Senator Eugene McCarthy - MN (slot 6)

As far as the general election goes, I think nationally it will be Nixon - 50 Democrat - 35 at the beginning of the primaries, and Nixon - 55 Democrat - 35 for the general election only campaigns. This makes it difficult, yet not impossible to win as a Democrat.

Any suggestions on issues, candidates or anything else would be greatly appreciated. So far I've completed populations and electoral votes changes, and that's about it. I'm in the process of editing the number of delegates - I have the CQ book out from the library.

Two things: early election polling had Muskie beating Nixon in head-to-heads & why not toss Reagan in for a 1976 style challenge? He never considered it in our timeline, but it would be a fun "what-if". Say an event triggers if Reagan is in the game… something about Watergate leading Reagan into the race "The Republicans are right on everything, but Nixon needs to go."

As for decreasing the Democratic lead, just throw in an event series like I use in 1968.

And the CQ book… think you can post the delegates/dates for all years (or 1960 to 1988) when you get a chance in scenario resources? It'd be nice to have a permanent archive to consult and Canadian libraries don't have CQ books.

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I think that Reagan would make a lot of sense. He could be sparked into running because of Nixon traveling to China. He could run as an anti-communist. As far as Muskie leading, I believe that he could beat Nixon, and I also believe that Wallace could. If anyone could get more info on platforms that would be fantastic. I have my own theories and ideas on many of the candidates, but I was wondering if anyone had more details.

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Two things: early election polling had Muskie beating Nixon in head-to-heads & why not toss Reagan in for a 1976 style challenge? He never considered it in our timeline, but it would be a fun "what-if". Say an event triggers if Reagan is in the game… something about Watergate leading Reagan into the race "The Republicans are right on everything, but Nixon needs to go."

As for decreasing the Democratic lead, just throw in an event series like I use in 1968.

And the CQ book… think you can post the delegates/dates for all years (or 1960 to 1988) when you get a chance in scenario resources? It'd be nice to have a permanent archive to consult and Canadian libraries don't have CQ books.

I'll work on a spreadsheet for the delegate counts.

Reagan as a Republican is definitely a good idea. I was looking for a high-profile Republican to challenge Nixon - Reagan is perfect.

On the topic of Watergate, I have a plan for modeling that event. The first is an event guaranteed to occur, with a limited impact. While this event occurs, there is a 1/100 chance that the scandal blossoms early, and Nixon has to stem a tide of negative momentum.

As far as modeling Muskie's electability, I personally think his claims were exaggerated. The Man from Maine wouldn't have fared too well, in the long run. He was a horrid campaigner, and there's a reason McGovern beat him so quickly. I see your point though. The race should be much closer in the beginning. With the way P4E works, Nixon's running virtually unopposed in the primary should allow him to build a big lead by the time the conventions roll around.

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Reagan as a Republican is definitely a good idea. I was looking for a high-profile Republican to challenge Nixon - Reagan is perfect.

As far as modeling Muskie's electability, I personally think his claims were exaggerated. The Man from Maine wouldn't have fared too well, in the long run. He was a horrid campaigner, and there's a reason McGovern beat him so quickly. I see your point though. The race should be much closer in the beginning. With the way P4E works, Nixon's running virtually unopposed in the primary should allow him to build a big lead by the time the conventions roll around.

Well since Reagan from 1968 onwards (including the '68 nomination, they just figured Nixon would win and Reagan wouldn't) was easily the most popular Republican with Republicans he's really the only plausible figure to challenge Nixon with a chance for success.

Oh not Muskie in particular, I agree he wasn't terribly good, but yeah the general picture was not as skewed as the final 1972 results may indicate superficially.

Sure, the Republicans from around 1972 to 1996 had a very large inherent advantage but the '72 landslide was still a bit over the top, and argues to McGovern's failings more than Nixon's successes. (Essentially the GOP held a similar position to the Democrats in FDR's era: near-total control of the South + competitive in all other states.)

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Sorry about the delay. I managed to secure a press pass to the Obama event in Detroit on Monday through the radio station I work at. Then yesterday, I attended an Obama townhall on college costs. So I've been busy.

Anyway, I'll send the scenario out later today. I've got issues almost done, and am working on delegate counts.

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Sorry about the delay. I managed to secure a press pass to the Obama event in Detroit on Monday through the radio station I work at. Then yesterday, I attended an Obama townhall on college costs. So I've been busy.

Anyway, I'll send the scenario out later today. I've got issues almost done, and am working on delegate counts.

My sympathies

270gopred@gmail.com please?

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So here's where things stand right now. I'm planning on doing candidate bios and platforms, as well as issues (I've already done them but it might be worth going over). But i need help with two things, one I can't delete a candidate without the game freaking out. And two, I need help with primary percentages, as I have no books on the primaries. I feel like Electric Monk could help with this.

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I can help with the percentages, though Electric Monk probably has broader information than me.

I'd recommend the book for which I named the thread, Fear and Loathing: on the Campaign Trail '72, for more info. It's an excellent read.

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I can help with the percentages, though Electric Monk probably has broader information than me.

Normally yes, but my personal political library (and both university libraries in Montreal) are, um, halfway across North America as I'm currently in Calgary.

as I have no books on the primaries. I feel like Electric Monk could help with this.

Presidential Primaries: Road to the White House by James W. Davis (This one the Calgary library has, if you need it, and it includes the winning percentages for '72.)

Campaign 72: The Managers Speak by Ernest R. May (Editor), Janet Fraser (Editor).

In addition to Fear and Loathing (excellent book) you also want the companion book: The Boys on the Bus by Timothy Crouse

For a general overview including issues and so forth: Nixonland: The Rise of a President and the Fracturing of America by Rick Perlstein

Making of the President, 1972 by Theodore H. White

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Yeah I could definitely use any numbers that you have. I've tried using the Time Magazine archives, but they only have a few poll numbers and they lack result numbers in any sort of organizational manner. They did however provide interesting information that Muskie and Wallace were quite close in Florida early on. I'm essentially planning on using the primary results numbers as a baseline, taking into account momentum and upsets. Also, does Fear and Loathing provide numbers or just commentary? Thanks!

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Yeah I could definitely use any numbers that you have. I've tried using the Time Magazine archives, but they only have a few poll numbers and they lack result numbers in any sort of organizational manner. They did however provide interesting information that Muskie and Wallace were quite close in Florida early on. I'm essentially planning on using the primary results numbers as a baseline, taking into account momentum and upsets. Also, does Fear and Loathing provide numbers or just commentary? Thanks!

TIME is somewhat useful, but as you've found very scattershot. Warner '12 should have the delegate numbers from his CQ book (so jealous) and I'll take Presidential Primaries out of the library Sunday or Monday which will have the winning percentages for you.

Fear and Loathing mentions numbers once in a while, but mostly it's just (quite brilliant) commentary.

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