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Two possible scenarios


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Here are two ideas:

Manitoba 2011

Each riding in the province will have one electoral vote and thew winning party of that riding will win the vote

I was almost done the map for this one, but I just found out that te riding boundaries may change a slight bit, so i was gonig to hold off until that happened. In the scenario, I was going to make the assumption that the popular premier, Gary Doer, of the New Democratic Party (leftist) would step down, leaving the NDP nomination wide open. I would make Gary Doer a candidate, but have him turned off, but when turned on, he would easily sweep the nomination. The other two parties, the Liberals (center-left) and the Progressive Conservatives (right) would have less candidates. The Liberals are a third party that only polls around 12% provinicially, and only has a real shot in a few seats. The Conservatives would have a better chance and would be significant challengers, especially sicne they will have extra time due to a smaller field of candidates.

Edit: The final riding map will be out at the latest on Dec 31, 2008, which is a long time, so I might just go ahead with this one.

Canada-US Union 2010

Canada and the US have entered into a political union with the US system being adopted for choosing a president of the union. I calculated that Canada would add about 100 electoral votes to the pool, and could significantly swing the election. The new rules will not allow two term presidents to run again. Most candidates would be similar to the main candidates from the 2008 US Scenarion, and a few party leaders would be added from the Canadian parties. The major decision is if the NDP should be added as a far-left, Ralph Nader like party. The only problem might be that the NDP would throw the election to the Republicans/Conservatives every time.

Discussion would be appreciated

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The Canada US union sounds great. Maybe merge the GOP and Cons and the Demos and the grits. Make the NDP a minor party only competive in BC and the North.

I was planning on merging parties, but like you siad, the NDP should only have relevance in BC, the north, and maybe Sask. and Manitoba. I odn't know if I should make the NDP strictly Canadian, or give thme relvance in liberal places like Vermont. I'm wondering if they would even get ballot access in every state.

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Well I think they would gain access but wouldn't be very competive. They may steal some far leftists from the demos/grist especially if they nominate a more moderate canditate. You say this is 2010 who are you assuming wins the white house in '08?

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Well I think they would gain access but wouldn't be very competive. They may steal some far leftists from the demos/grist especially if they nominate a more moderate canditate. You say this is 2010 who are you assuming wins the white house in '08?

well, who ever wins would probably be irrelevant. I just said 2010 becuase the story would be better than 2008, as in it would have to happen this year. Either Obama or McCain. Both will be major contenders in their parties along with Senator Clinton. Either way this scneario would be really competitive. I am tihking though, if you put the scneario like tihs:

Obama is elected president in 2008, but his policies are more center aligned and he angers the far left (but still has considerable support). Obama, for some reason, (maybe to hlep the economy or solve the NAFTA resentment) puts Canada and the US into a union. Assumnig Harper is still PM, Harper sees this as his chance, with Obama stuck center left and the NDP siphoning votes far left off in a union, to become president and one of the strongest leaders in the world. Harper sees McCain as too old, and thinks that he could probably beat Romney and Huckabee and signs into the union, with a fair amount of Grit support since many Canadians (especially liberals) like Obama and want to rally behind him and get rid of Dion.

This description gives the right a good chance because they have the left splitting votes

The first thing I will need is a map that has the boundaries already inplace so I don't have to spend alot of time on that.

Here are some candidates I was thinking of

Liberals/Democrats:

Barack Obama

Hillary Clinton

John Edwards

Michael Ignatieff

Stephan Dion

Bob Rae

Conservatives/Republicans:

John McCain

Mitt Romney

Mike Huckabee

Freed Thomson

Rudy Guiliani

Stephen Harper

Peter McKay

Stockwell Day (probably not)

Ralph Klein

NDP:

Ralph Nader

Jack Layton

Bill Blaikie

Svend Robinson (?)

Thomas Mulclair

Lorne Calvert

Carole James

Gary Doer

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How are you gonna work the the Bloc. Will they even be there at all? They may throw it all off and make it go to congress. Speaking of congress whos gonna have more seats. What about the greens. They're more popular in Canada than in the US and they may pick up 3-5 % of the vote. How bout throwing in an anti union party.

I think a better reason for the union is that both economies are in the toilet and alone they can't compete with the EU and Cnina. They unify and combine their resources to be more competitive ont he international stage.

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How are you gonna work the the Bloc. Will they even be there at all? They may throw it all off and make it go to congress. Speaking of congress whos gonna have more seats. What about the greens. They're more popular in Canada than in the US and they may pick up 3-5 % of the vote. How bout throwing in an anti union party.

I think a better reason for the union is that both economies are in the toilet and alone they can't compete with the EU and Cnina. They unify and combine their resources to be more competitive ont he international stage.

I think the Bloc would be amalgamated into an anti-union party with a few other organizations. They could team up with anti-union U.S. parties (most likley the constitution party) and each would fight together to seperate from the other. You have to keep in mind that at almost 8 million people, Quebec would only end up with around 14 E.V.'s if you compare other states with tihs population. i agree with your 'economy-in the tank' idea, but to justify a conservative PM and a liberal Prez I would have to put osme 'ulterior motives' into the union.

By the way, by my calcualtions Canda's E.V. should be as follows:

British Columbia - 9

Alberta - 7

Saskatchewan - 4

Manitoba -4

Ontario - 21

Quebec -14

Prince Edward Island - 3

Nova Scotia - 3

Newfoundland - 3

New Brunswick - 3

Yukon -1

Northwest Territories - 1

Nunavut - 1

The northern territories only get 1 E.V. because in real life they a) have about 30,000 people each and B) are actually territoies and not provinces, giving thme less power over the constitution anyways. I am therefore saying that they would have no Senate seats and only one member of the house of representatives each.

For congress, I was debating whether to do a congressional majority in the province either by:

- party of the premier (the party thati s in power provincially)

- party with highest number of members of parliament in each province

Also, the greens are not really popular, but would be a little bit more popular than in the U.S. so all they might do would be make the election more conservative-friendly in Canada

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Well we don't NEED to have Obama president. I do agree that a union would be less likely with leaders of different idelologies. What about merging the north into one state since the pop is so small? I don't think in real life they'd each get statehood anyweay.

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Well we don't NEED to have Obama president. I do agree that a union would be less likely with leaders of different idelologies. What about merging the north into one state since the pop is so small? I don't think in real life they'd each get statehood anyweay.

no, but Obama as prez does set it up so that Harper realistically would have a chance on the right against McCain becuase if McCain was prez he would have probably the best chance. It also sets up the NDP well.

With the north, I was thinking of merging them and it is probably the most realistic, since it would raise their population to about 100K. They could even merge with Alaska, but I think the area would then be WAY too big

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Manitoba 2011

Here are the candidates that I would like to see for Manitoba.

New Democratic

Gary Doer

Gerrard Jennissen

Peter Bjornson

Ron Lemieux

George Hickes

Bidhu Jha

Kerri Irvin-Ross

Bill Blaikie

Judy Wasylycia-Leis

Progressive Conservative

Hugh McFadyen

Kelvin Goertzen

Heather Stefanson

Ron Schuler

Ken Waddell

Vic Toews

Liberal

Jon Gerrard

Kevin Lamoureux

Angelina Olivier-Job

Ginny Hasselfield

Sharon Carstairs

Green

Andrew Basham

Janine Gibson

Communist

Darrell Rankin

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Manitoba 2011

Here are the candidates that I would like to see for Manitoba.

New Democratic

Gary Doer

Gerrard Jennissen

Peter Bjornson

Ron Lemieux

George Hickes

Bidhu Jha

Kerri Irvin-Ross

Bill Blaikie

Judy Wasylycia-Leis

Progressive Conservative

Hugh McFadyen

Kelvin Goertzen

Heather Stefanson

Ron Schuler

Ken Waddell

Vic Toews

Liberal

Jon Gerrard

Kevin Lamoureux

Angelina Olivier-Job

Ginny Hasselfield

Sharon Carstairs

Green

Andrew Basham

Janine Gibson

Communist

Darrell Rankin

For the NDP I was also thinking of most of the candidates mentioned here

I can see that you were going for some MP's like Bill Blakie (who I doubt would ever run provinically. I wouldn't be suprised if he retires from the House of Commons after this year. I was thinking more of people who are inside of Doer's cabinet already. For the conservatives I also don't really think McFayden would face much challenge.

Heres a suggestion. Make some of the far left democrats and independents (Kuchinich, Nader, Sharpton, Jackson ) and put them in the NDP.

Good idea, tihs seems pratical and would give the NDP viability in some U.S. states

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  • 3 weeks later...

I have not given up on this. I have been busy lately but I have almost finished the map for Manitoba 2011. I actually had finished the map until I found out that Theorysaprk supplies the backgrounds. When I tried to put the manitoba map (which is actually four sections of the province plus a zoom in of Brandon) onto the background, I lost all of the black lines surrounding the ridings as well as screwing up about three of the Winnipeg ridings. I will be done the map probably tomorrow and start on the candidates as well tomorrow.

Right now I am looking for Manitoba issues and candidates. I will have at least four parties (NDP, PC, Grits, Greens) and maybe the Communist and Freedom parties. Communists would be at 1.5% in the few places they are and the freedom would have around .5% in the places they ran candidates for the last election

Just remember: I need issues!

Of the top of my head I have:

-Crime

-Bipole III

-Environment

-Energy

-First Nations People

and that's about it

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Unfortunatley I can't. I'm working on another now in life is getting busy as it is.

I'm not saying we have to work on it right now, I can do some preliminary stuff and if someone does the map this would not be that hard to do for the fall sometime (late August/September/October)

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  • 2 weeks later...

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