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Hello Everyone!

I am in the early development stages of creating a 2012 French Presidential Election Scenario. I need a lot of help with it. I will need help with the issues, map, political units, events, endorsers, issues, percentages, and a little bit with the parties and candidates. Here are the candidates I would include:

NOTE: Two polls were released on May 3. I will put their results next to the candidate. If there aren't numbers written next to the candidate, that means that they were not included in the poll.

French Socialist

2007 Nominee Ségolène Royal (33%)

Mayor of Paris Bertrand Delanoë (30%)

National Assembly Dominique Strauss-Kahn (21%)

National Assembly Laurent Fabius (5%)

National Assembly Francois Hollande (4%)

Mayor Martine Aubry

National Assembly Pierre Moscovici

Union for a Popular Movement

President Nicolas Sarkozy (46%)

Mayor Alain Juppé (14%)

Prime Minister François Fillon (14%)

Former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin (8%)

National Assembly Michèle Alliot-Marie

National Assembly Roselyne Bachelot-Narquin

Foreign Affairs Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy

Former Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin

Democratic Movement

François Bayrou

Corinne Lepage

National Front

Bruno Gollnisch

Carl Lang

Jean-Marie Le Pen

Marine Le Pen (Set to Off)

Communist (Combine the Major Communist Partys)

Olivier Besancenot

Alain Krivine

Marie-George Buffet

Arlette Laguiller

Movement for France

Philippe de Villiers

The Greens

Cécile Duflot

Dominique Voynet

New Centre

Hervé Morin

André Santini

Nationally, the polls should stand at:

French Socialist (25%)

Union for a Popular Movement (24%)

Democratic Movement (21%)

National Front (13%)

Communist (7%)

Movement for France (2%)

The Greens (2%)

New Centre (6%)

Useful Links:

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=451289

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=451292

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=434227

So, in conclusion, please help me with this scenario. I think it could be one of 80soft's best user made scenarios. So, if you have any ideas/comments or would like to help, please respond and tell me what you would like to do.

--Matty

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hey, i would be more than happy to help you. twomorrow i'll post a map and some issiues. post your e-mail and i'll write you right away.

PS. isn't it a shame that there is not an option in campaigns forever to make a popular vote/runoff type electoral system?

cheers.

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Hi, a few changes I'd make:

CANDIDATES

Ump

1/ Juppe has zero chance of being presidential candidate, it's much too late for that

2/ Villepin's time has also passed, he's insignificant

3/ Fillon is good, I would add a couple other candidates representing the 'wings' of the UMP who are currently personalities.. Jean Louis Borloo is supposedly popular on the 'social' side, I'm no expert on the UMP but maybe someone like Alain Madelin (liberal)

Democratic movement

1/ Corinne Lepage? I am not sure she is even in the party. Think she just pulled out and endorsed Bayrou (before his party formed). Marielle de Sarnez is the only other big name I've heard of. Alternate candidates would probably only occur if something happened to Bayrou, the party is basically candidate-centered on him

Socialists

Looks fine

National Front

1/ Carl Lang isn't really a major figure any more, I can't see him becoming a presidential candidate. It will either be Jean-Marie Le Pen, or he'll quit and it'll be Gollnisch (with a lower vote share) or it will be Marine.

Far Left

Olivier Besancenot should lead his own party, he's currently in the procses of doing it and it's what's been in the news for a while. He wouldn't share a party with Buffet or Laguillier, they will continue leading their own parties. I would put Besancenot's party, whatever it's called, at around 5-7% and the other left groups at 1.5-2% each.

New Center

Fine, but will they run as a separate party or merge with the UMP? I don't know

MPF:

I don't think Villiers will run again, he backed Sarkozy in the last election and with the right in power he has no platform

National Vote shares:

Democrats at 21% is simply unbelievable. They had 7 or so seats in the parliament, if even that and have lost a bunch of them. Local/municipal elections confirmed it, they are worth about 25% at the most in their strongest localities and 10% nationally would be pushing it. Unless there was a new media surge for Bayrou which I can't see he's not a novelty any more or both main parties have a crisis I don't see that occurring

Communist at 7%?? What's the reasoning for that? Last election they recieved less than 2%, they lost almost all their deposits in the legislatives and the party was bankrupt last I heard. The media hasn't covered them, the attention is ont he Socialists and with Besancenot I do not even know if they'll exist

New Center and Greens sound about right depending on the main party candidates, as I said the MPF no longer exists, the NF is about right.\

If you want to add more parties/candidates I'd look for possible independents or minors with potential.

There's also the Worker's Party (Gluckstein), there's the Hunting/Fishing/Traditions party who've been in every election for a while and there's Nicolas Dupont-Aignan's group of about three ex-UMP parliamentarians (Debout la republique). He just missed the signature threshold to participate in the last election but I think could have got 2-5%, enough to hurt Sarkozy. These kind of groups could benefit from another EU crisis, it really depends on who leads the Socialists and how they handle things.

Then there's the MRC/PRG which could stand separate from the Socialists depending on internal politics.

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The FN at 13%! :blink:

This is impossible!

Except of course if there is another crisis in the banlieues like the one in 2005 by 2012, which is an absolutely plausible scenario!

BTW, I recommand you to put the french names for political parties.

PS-Parti Socialiste

UMP-Union pour un mouvement populaire

MoDem-Mouvement Démocrate`

FN-Front National

Les Verts

PRG-Parti radical de gauche

CPNT-Chasse, pêche, nature et traditions

For the extreme-left type parties:

PCF-Parti communiste Français

LCR-Ligue communiste révolutionnaire (Olivier Besancenot)

PT-Parti des travailleurs

LO-Lutte ouvrière (Arlette Laguiller said that the 2007 election was her last one)

Arlette Laguiller déclare que sa candidature à l'élection présidentielle de 2007 devrait être la dernière et qu'une jeune militante de Lutte ouvrière lui succèdera la fois suivante. Selon elle, « un vivier de jeunes femmes [...] peuvent jouer ce rôle ».

The traduction for non-french speakers (by myself): Arlette Laguiller declares that the presidential election of 2007 will be her last one and a young supporter or booster (woman) will succeed her for the next election. Laguiller thinks that there is ''a good pool (or selection) of young women who can play that role at her place''.

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The FN at 13%! :blink:

This is impossible!

Why?

With Sarkozy at his height, Bayrou ultra-hyped by the media and a relatively popular Socialist candidate Le Pen still polled 10.5% in 2007. With Le Pen still in place I can perfectly see 13%, with his daughter or Gollnisch I don't know, nobody knows how much of the vote is for the personality. I would guess 7 to 12% without Le Pen.

Except of course if there is another crisis in the banlieues like the one in 2005 by 2012, which is an absolutely plausible scenario!

I think it's the opposite. The crisis kind of issues benefit the Sarkozyist UMP. That's what happened between 2005 and 2007, people wanted a strong figure who would do something (could get elected) instead of just protesting "fuck you all". The relationship between Sarkozy and the FN is parasitic, when Sarkozy had credibility the FN went down, I think as he and the government lose credibility the opposite will happen and the populist voters will return.

LO-Lutte ouvrière (Arlette Laguiller said that the 2007 election was her last one)

I'm not certainbut I believe she has picked her successor in the party, I can't remember who it is but it's a younger woman I saw her a few times during the campaign representing Arlette.

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However, it is very difficult to see the FN without Le Pen having more than 10%.

One can see that the main core of supporters of Le Pen and the FN is rapidely eroding especially in Marseille, Northern France and Alsace-Lorraine.

But you are also right to say that Sarkozy had the support of many former FNiste in the last election. Also, I am not sure that Bayrou could really get 21% because that his support is not very large at the base except in Southwest France.

Do José Bové will also be present because he had about the same support as Laguiller in the last election?

For the scenario, do President Forever can have two rounds?

Also, for information about the vote by age, gender and social class (in french):

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lection...professionnelle

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For the scenario, do President Forever can have two rounds?

No, unfortunately not.

I think the best thing would be to use the PM4E Australia game and set it to their preferential voting system. There would be no second turn campaign but automatically all the votes of the parties except for the top two would be redistributed. Alliances/coalitions give you a benefit from their voters so there would be some strategy involved, you could win without coming first in the primary round.

The alternative is to use P4E+P and set all the candidates as members of one of two parties ("the right" and "the left" maybe) in primaries. The first round = the primaries, and the second round is the general election, and use Proportional Representation for delegates/Electoral votes. The problem apart from realism (FN supporters vote socialist sometimes, where would Bayrou supporters go?) is that you would have to have left/right finalists, only one can win each primary, you couldn't have Le Pen/Chirac and depending on which primary Bayrou was in he wouldn't be able to fight either Sarkozy or Royal.

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