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  1. Since there are major bugs in my All-Star Scenario, I've turned to working on my 2020 scenario until @admin_270 has the time to help me fix the All-Star scenario (I know he's busy). In the 2020 scenario, I have Clinton as the incumbent. Her economy has been fairly strong, slightly better than Obama's, but her presidency has been very unexciting, except for the reduction of ISIS into a much more minor force. She hasn't done enough for progressives, and she hasn't done enough to appeal to anti-establishment on the left or the right. She's basically been, as was expected, three more years of Obama, which makes the establishment Democrats happy, but not enough people happy. As such, she faces challengers from her own party, as well as from Republicans. Clinton has a structural advantages, and so may be able to secure nomination fairly quickly. I am hoping to create events, in which Clinton tries to appeal to Progressives, which would increase her support, while reducing the support of her challenges. I'll put these events at about 25% likely. Republicans, meanwhile, are still fragmented. Trump might run for reelection. Paul Ryan is an unliked Speaker within his own party, but still the only person holding them together. Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich are also leading sections of the party. Knowing that these disparate parts must work together to defeat a 4th Democratic term in the presidency is the only thing preventing a swath of independent candidacies vs. Hillary Clinton, a strategy that would completely backfire (see 1836 election with the independent Whig candidacies). Here are the candidates in my scenario. I may add some: Republicans- Donald Trump - Independent Populist Republican Ted Cruz - Puritan Conservative Republican Marco Rubio - Compromise Conservative Republican Chris Christie - Moderate Republican John Kasich - Moderate Republican Rand Paul - Libertarian Republican Lindsey Graham - War Hawk Republican Bobby Jindal - Compromise Conservative Republican Scott Walker - Compromise Conservative Republican Paul Ryan - Compromise Conservative Republican Susana Martinez - Moderate Republican Jon Huntsman - Independent moderate Republican John Thune - Compromise Conservative Republican Mike Pence - Compromise Conservative Republican Brian Sandoval - Moderate Republican Nikki Haley - Compromise Conservative Republican Tom Cotton - Compromise Conservative Republican Ben Sasse - Compromise Conservative Republican Tim Scott - Compromise Conservative Republican Joni Ernst - Compromise Populist Conservative Republican Democrats: Hillary Clinton - Establishment Democrat Elizabeth Warren - Progressive Democrat Sherrod Brown - Progressive Democrat Alan Grayson - Populist Progressive Democrat Julian Castro - Compromise Establishment Democrat Cory Booker - Compromise Establishment Democrat Brian Schweitzer - Establishment Democrat Andrew Cuomo - Establishment Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand - Establishment Democrat Amy Klobuchar - Compromise Establishment Democrat Deval Patrick - Establishment Democrat Howard Schultz - Independent Populist Progressive Democrat Kamala Harris - Establishment Democrat Martin Heinrich - Establishment Democrat Tulsi Gabbard - Compromise Establishment Democrat For both parties, Compromise candidates are likely to accept platform ideas from all factions of the party, and enact them. They're also likely to flip-flop. Independent candidates are likely to veer off in ways that are unacceptable to the party in general.
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