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  1. vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W I've made my Election Day checklist. Here's how it works: The below lists the key counties in determining if Biden is winning over voters that wouldn't vote Clinton. Obviously, Biden's margins vs Trump have to be better than Clinton's margins vs Trump in states that Clinton did not win. I'll be looking at these counties below on election day. I am 99.9% sure Biden will win NH, MN, VA, CO, NM. I am similarly sure Trump wins IA, AK, MT, MO, and SC. Therefore, I don't include these states below. I place each state in a tier -- 1st tier election, 2nd tier election, 3rd tier election, and tie-breaker. If Biden wins both 1st tier elections (PA and FL), he wins the election. Even if he doesn't win both of them, winning one of them means he likely wins enough 2nd tier states to get to 270, since these states are more conservative than many of the 2nd tier states. This is why they're 1st tier. 2nd tier elections are the elections I'll be looking at if Biden does not win both FL and PA. Biden can still technically win even if he loses both FL and PA, but it is unlikely he wins NC and/or WI if he can't win FL or PA. I don't think he can win AZ if he can't win PA and possibly if he can't win FL. Basically, these states are the ones I look at if Biden can't win both tier 1 states. 3rd tier elections are those that I'll be looking at if Biden has 270 from the first two tiers and I want to see if a landslide is about to occur. I see no probable situation in which Biden doesn't win in tier 1 or tier 2 but somehow wins because of tier 3. The tie-breaking tier is in the event Biden wins PA, MI, and NV, but can't win WI, FL, NC, and AZ. Without these two tie-breakers, the election is 268-268. Biden would have to win both NE-2 and ME-2 to avoid a tie. However, I doubt NE-2 goes Biden if AZ and WI don't. I don't think ME-2 goes for Biden without WI. This is a longshot to happen and a longshot for Biden to win if it does happen. The House will pick Trump in this scenario based of how the vote is done. Anyway, here's the checklist. These key counties are basically the counties that I think will show if the Biden coalition is doing better than Clinton coalition. I expect Biden to perform somewhere between Clinton and Obama. But we will see: Key Counties 2020 2016 2012 2008 2004 2000 Population Center Berks County, PA -10 -1 9 -7 -9 Reading, PA Erie County, PA -2 16 20 8 9 Erie, PA Lackawanna County, PA 3 27 26 14 24 Scranton, PA Luzerne County, PA -19 5 8 3 8 Wilkes-Barre, PA Pennsylvania Total -1 5 10 3 5 1st Tier Election Pinellas County, FL -2 6 8 0 -4 St. Petersburg, FL Brevard County, FL -20 -12 -11 -16 -8 Palm Bay, FL Polk County, FL -14 -7 -7 -18 -9 Bartow, FL Volusia County, FL -13 -1 5 2 8 Daytona Beach, FL Florida Total -1 1 3 -5 0 1st Tier Election Robeson County, NC -4 17 13 6 21 Lumberton, NC Cumberland Co., NC 16 19 18 -4 1 Fayetteville, NC Gaston Co, NC -32 -25 -25 -36 -34 Charlotte suburb Orange Co., NC 50 42 45 35 27 Chapel Hill, NC North Carolina Total -4 -2 1 -12 -13 2nd Tier Election Wayne County, MI 38 47 49 39 40 Detroit, MI Macomb County, MI -12 4 8 -1 2 Detroit suburbs Genesee County, MI 9 29 32 21 28 Flint, MI Saginaw County, MI -1 11 17 7 10 Saginaw, MI Michigan Total -1 9 16 3 5 2nd Tier Election Douglas County, WI 7 31 33 32 31 Superior, WI Sauk County, WI 0 19 23 5 6 Sauk City, WI Monitowoc County, WI -21 -3 8 -5 -4 Monitowoc, WI Rock, WI 11 23 29 17 18 Janesville, WI Wisconsin Total -1 7 14 1 0 2nd Tier Election Clark County, NV 9 14 19 5 6 Las Vegas, NV Washoe County, NV 1 4 12 -4 -9 Reno, NV Douglas County, NV -32 -26 -16 -29 -29 Minden, NV Carson City, NV -14 -9 1 -16 -19 Carson City, NV Nevada Total 2 6 12 -2 -4 2nd Tier Election Maricopa County, AZ -3 -11 -10 -15 -10 Phoenix, AZ Pima County, AZ 14 7 6 6 8 Tucson, AZ Pinal County, AZ -19 -17 -14 -15 1 Florence, AZ Coconino, AZ 20 15 17 13 7 Flagstaff, AZ Arizona Total -3 -9 -8 -11 -6 2nd Tier Election Gwinnet County, GA 6 -9 -11 -32 -32 Atlanta suburbs Fulton County, GA 42 30 35 19 18 Atlanta, GA Cobb County, GA 2 -12 -9 -25 -33 Marietta, GA Henry County, GA 4 -3 -7 -34 -35 Atlanta suburbs Georgia Total -5 -8 -5 -17 -12 3rd Tier Election Harris County, TX 12 0 2 -10 -11 Houston, TX Dallas County, TX 26 15 15 1 -8 Dallas, TX Travis County, TX 39 24 30 14 -5 Austin, TX Fort Bend Co., TX 6 -7 -2 -15 -21 Houston suburbs Texas Total -9 -16 -11 -23 -21 3rd Tier Election Loraine County, OH 0 15 18 13 10 Cleveland suburbs Cuyhoga County, OH 35 40 39 34 30 Cleveland, OH Lake County, OH -15 -1 1 -3 -5 Cleveland suburbs Stark County, OH -17 1 6 2 -2 Canton, OH Ohio Total -8 3 4 -2 -4 3rd Tier Election Douglas Co., NE (2nd) -15 -3 5 -18 -15 Omaha Sarpy Co., NE (2nd) -32 -23 -16 -39 -33 Omaha suburbs Nebraska 2nd District -18 -7 1 -22 -18 Tie-Breaker Election Penobscot Co., ME (2nd) 11 3 5 0 -4 Bangor, ME Kennebec, ME (1st/2nd) 4 13 14 8 12 Augusta, ME Androscoggin Co (2nd) 10 13 16 10 12 Lewiston, ME Maine Total 3 15 18 9 5 Tie-Breaker Election
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