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Actinguy

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Everything posted by Actinguy

  1. I've been monitoring the betting market on Predictit of what the electoral college margin will be (including who will win) for weeks. It's mostly been stable. All of a sudden, today, there's a huge decline for Trump across the board. The people who were betting in his favor are jumping ship at huge losses. My own bet (that Dems will win by a margin of 30-59 votes) has increased to give me a $30 profit off of my $80 bet if I were to sell today -- but I'm holding firm. If Dems do win by a margin of 30-59 votes, I'll end up with a profit of nearly $1,600 off of my $80 bet.
  2. Couldn't really say -- I don't know how just or benevolent God is (or whether God exists). I'm mostly agnostic -- I pray when the plane I'm on takes off or lands, but otherwise it doesn't really occur to me to think much about whether or not God exists. I do firmly believe that if God exists, he would not be a big fan of people using his name as justification to hate other people (homophobia, Christian/Muslim wars, etc). But obviously I don't know whether I'm correct about that. I just don't see the point of a version of God that wants us to pick on the downtrodden. As for whether I could be better than the actual God, assuming that God both exists and is roughly what I think it might be if it exists -- it's hard to say. Yes, in general, I think I could judge a stranger fairly. But, for example, no matter how many torturous murders my daughter grows up to commit, I would never even consider sentencing her to eternal damnation. So I certainly wouldn't be unbiased.
  3. One thing that jumps out at me is that Leuser had most of the oldest players at the start of the game, which was a potential weakness — but as you’ve identified, he has the most potential bonus points from issues (if they all go his way). Vcczar has the least potential bonus points, but he also started with the youngest statesmen on average. Coincidence or by design, I don’t know. But all factors in the balancing act.
  4. Actually, the card would not reappear. The only issues that reappear are the ones that specifically say “card shuffled into next deck” if it’s failed/ignored. Had President Sherman not withdrawn the troops, I guess they’d still be there through 2020. Haha. As for balance of bonus points and starting positions, that’s one of the things I assume the game designer is watching us to determine. It’s my understanding that we might be the first players to ever test this scenario. He’s made minor tweaks to his game based on our feedback from previous playthroughs of the main, sequel, and expansion games. I imagine this scenario might get similar tweaks if needed.
  5. @mlcorcoran ISSUE THREE 1879 By 1879, the average surviving Civil war Veteran was 50 years old. Many had lost limbs due to injury or, more rampant in the war, illness — rendering them equally incapable of returning to the life of farming or factory work from whence they’d came. As their ravaged bodies aged, many were rendered destitute — in clear violation of former President Abraham Lincoln’s call that we should “care for him who shall have borne the battle, and his widow, and his orphan.” But what could be done, in this troubled economy?
  6. Ending reconstruction flipped “policy change” to true. Democrats now project to get only 4 of the necessary 6 keys in the next election.
  7. I've awarded 2 IP to faction leader @Leuser former Secretary of Treasury William Wheeler for reconstruction ending.
  8. His whole ploy was exactly what I described above (except, with the hope the party would find him preferable to Trump, instead of the more likely outcome of choosing no one and letting Pence have it). He didn't run for President with the hope that the effort would all be worthwhile as long as he could get his college roommate appointed to the FDA.
  9. @swejie The Southern Democrats get 10 victory points now that they are “free at last; free at last; thank god almighty; we are free at last!” from northern occupation. Yikes. It is probably not okay that they stole a popular slave song for this, huh?
  10. When I was in elementary school, in Bush Sr vs Clinton, I chose Ross Perot. I told my class that Bush had already had a turn as President, and Clinton cheated on his wife so how will he ever be faithful to us? (I was definitely channeling my dad with that one). I think Bush Sr won our class election, if memory serves.
  11. Yes, on paper, Trump wins in this scenario. But in reality? McMullin was just as capable of the math as we are. But his ploy was that, while the Republican Party might accept a duly elected Donald Trump, they might be less eager to be personally responsible for handing him a win he didn’t earn. Its one thing to say “hey, this is who the people chose, what can ya do”. It’s a whole different thing to have to explain to your congressional district why you personally handed the keys of the White House to someone who failed to win 270 electoral votes — a couple weeks after he got caught bragging about grabbing nonconsenting women “by the pussy.” Thats a hard sell, in anything but the purest MAGA district, if he didn’t win the election on his own. Of course, that doesn’t mean they turn around and hand the keys to the literally unknown McMullin either. And they’re obviously not giving it to Clinton. But the constitution provides the Republican Party with a perfect “out” — just fail to coalesce around a winner, and Mike Pence...infinitely more acceptable to Republican establishment...becomes President.
  12. @mlcorcoran ISSUE TWO 1878 With significantly lowered tariffs, Northerners have taken to purchasing foreign cotton goods again — significantly hurting an already struggling war torn south, struggling to find their way in this post-slavery world. Suffice it to say, they’re not your biggest fans. 18 years after the end of the civil war, perhaps now is the time to withdraw our troops. In addition mollifying the south, perhaps this would repair the recent rift between President Sherman and the Southern Democrats in Congress. Or...maybe a war torn, occupied economy is just what you fucking GET for declaring war on us northerners in the first place? (As a reminder, for the purposes of issue cards, the Republican Party leader is always the progressive @Leuser faction leader. In this case, that’s former Secretary of the Treasury William Wheeler.)
  13. 41-year-old Attorney and former Sheriff Grover Cleveland has risen in prominence following the death of fellow New Yorker Samuel Tilden. Cleveland is now viewed as the leader of the Democrat party. @vcczar
  14. Police confirmed this morning that the body pulled out of the East River was indeed that of Governor and 1876 Presidential Candidate Samuel Tilden. Tilden, previously presumed to be the front runner for the 1880 election as well, was last seen on the pedestrian path of the Brooklyn Bridge inspecting excessive cost overruns of that decade-long project marred in more than it’s fair share of tragedies. @vcczar @mlcorcoran can you do the honors of removing Mr. Tilden from the land of the living?
  15. The protective tariffs are repealed! 2 popularity to President Sherman and Secretary Conkling. The price of imported goods fall, helping the cash-strapped population during the long recession purchase the items they need for survival.
  16. 1. I’m not sure I understand the question, but sure! PI. 2. Let’s Take A Drive: A Gerald and Piggie book. 99% of the books I read these days are kids books. Last adult book I read cover to cover was A Dance With Dragons (most recent in the Game of Thrones series) but that was a few years ago. #DadLife 3: No coffee, just Coke. 4: Pete Buttigieg.
  17. Voting to repeal the protective tariff. Voting opens with @swejie
  18. @vcczar has chosen Justices most closely aligned with the ideals of Grover Cleveland and John Schofield.
  19. I've updated the 13 Keys to the White House. Note: While Sherman is guaranteed re-nomination by virtue of his status as the incumbent, it's currently not counting as "unanimous" because Sherman needs to beat any other Republican by more than 2 Popularity. Otherwise, while his successful nomination is guaranteed, it won't count as unanimous for the purpose of key-counting. Democrats currently project to get 5 of the necessary 6 keys to win the Presidency.
  20. No vote necessary. It doesn't say "congress" on the card -- just treasury.
  21. Your faction started with most of the oldest statesmen. I assume the game creator did this to you on purpose. Haha. Alternatively, being handed the opportunity to unlock your younger statesmen sooner could end up giving you a long term boost. We shall see!
  22. @mlcorcoran ISSUE ONE 1877 Well, this is embarrassing. President Sherman won the election on the back of Grant’s economic accomplishments, advocating the importance of his Gold Standard — and now he can’t extricate himself from it. He can’t even try to pin the blame on your Vice President, god rest his soul. He’ll have to bare the brunt of this yourself. The problem appears to have begun, as all problems do, in Europe. A banking collapse there led to foreign investments collapsing here — particularly in railroad companies. More than 40 railroads have already gone under, with more expected to follow. In total, as many as 20,000 businesses are looking at potential bankruptcy. Unemployment could reach 15%. The panic has led to a run on the banks here, cashing in their paper money for gold as was promised by Grant — but per the Gold Standard...without the gold to back them up, banks cannot lend any money to help stimulate the economy. The few who still have money during this economic depression are clinging to it, causing additional economic harm. Typically, a government would expand the money supply in such a crisis by issuing more paper money (which we can’t do because of the gold standard) or lowering interest to the banks (which we can’t do because there’s no federal reserve yet and also the banks still don’t have the gold to lend out.) We could temporarily take our money off the gold standard again, and easing money supply that way...though that might really shake confidence in our dollar to do it so quickly after passing the gold standard in the first place. Its a real conundrum, I tells ya! What say you, @mlcorcoran
  23. The 1878 inauguration is record-breakingly cold. So cold, in fact, that both former President Andrew Johnson and VP Henry Wilson contract pneumonia and eventually die. @swejie and @Leuser
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