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RI Democrat

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Everything posted by RI Democrat

  1. How are those numbers showing Trump flipping Minnesota? It looks to me like Democrats have a 1-point advantage in the early vote with a sizeable percentage of independents.
  2. I don't quite get it either - even the R-leaning Trafalgar Group poll from today has Biden up by three in Minnesota - but perhaps it's just an abundance of caution given how unexpectedly close the state was last time around. I suppose we're about to find out whether there is in fact an ongoing problem with the polls in effectively measuring Trump's support or if 2016 was kind of a fluke in that regard.
  3. Hillary's campaign made the mistake of thinking the Blue Wall was solid, so I suspect that Biden's people are determined not to repeat that mistake. I don't believe that Biden is ahead by double digits in Blue Wall states, but I'm also skeptical of the notion that the polls are almost *all* wrong and that Trump is actually ahead in those states. Winning Florida would give him some insurance in case one of the Blue Wall states were to slip away, plus it gives him a positive election night storyline. My understanding is that they expect FL to finish almost all of its counting on election n
  4. Honestly, I'm mostly concerned now that we're going to get screwed over by postal delays and biased court rulings regarding any recounts or challenges that emerge. I think that a small but stable majority wants Trump gone, but I'm less confident that this will actually be reflected in the outcome.
  5. Both my elementary and secondary schools drew primarily from very conservative families - I was in a small minority supporting the Democrat in each of our mock elections (1984, 1988, and 1992). Though a few of the alums from my high school that I follow on Facebook seem to be a little more liberal now than they were back then.
  6. Didn't it happen to Jean Chretien once, or am I thinking of something else? Anyway, I was just quoting stereotypical 270soft scenario news headlines, though I think maybe "hit with pie" is absent from the newer versions.
  7. Trump Makes Gaffe on Covid Issue Noisy Protesters Outside Harris Event Biden Hit With Pie!
  8. Is there actually polling showing Biden doing better in Iowa than in Nevada? I suppose anything's possible, but that reminds me more of the sort of interesting-but-unlikely-in-real-life results that you sometimes get in a 270soft scenario when a state gets spammed with ads or something. I tend to be more of the view that local campaigning and advertising has only a small impact and that instead voters of similar backgrounds tend to move en masse across the country. So unless Biden is, for example, simultaneously maxing out with white working-class voters *and* slipping among Hispanic vote
  9. Why would he be investing these resources in Pennsylvania if it's a "lock"?
  10. Well, that was mostly during the primary. I don't remember the exact chronology, but Biden cemented his position as presumptive nominee only shortly before COVID got really bad. I don't think anybody disputes that Trump's base is more fervently attached to their candidate than Biden's is, but he's also alienated half the country to the point that many of us almost don't care who runs against him as long as it's some generally acceptable Democrat. I don't know if I'd bother going to a Biden rally if I had the opportunity, but that doesn't make me any less likely to vote for him next Tuesda
  11. I do not think that Arizona is more Republican-leaning than Georgia. That's not to say that I don't think Trump can win AZ, but I'd be surprised if he managed to win AZ while losing GA.
  12. Biden is mostly having drive-in rallies when he does public events. You're not going to see those sorts of lines because the events are smaller and people are in their cars.
  13. I've always considered Ohio to be one of the less likely pickups for Biden. I'd rank it below not only the MI/WI/PA trifecta, but also AZ, FL, NC, and maybe even GA and IA in terms of 2016 Trump states that I would expect Biden to win.
  14. Are people doing a lot of voluntary social distancing and mask-wearing?
  15. Me too. Also, aliens built the pyramids, or something.
  16. What did Pallister and Kenney do differently that earned them such low ratings compared to the other premiers'?
  17. Maybe, though it's also possible that Biden's campaign is focusing on shoring up the blue wall rather than expanding the map, i.e. avoiding Hillary's mistake from 2016, while Trump is just trying to avoid betting the farm on Pennsylvania. Trump also went to NH recently - or is going to, I can't remember which - and it doesn't seem like anyone really expects NH to flip.
  18. I know oil is big in Texas, but is it really that big in Pennsylvania - are there a bunch of fracking jobs there or something? Saying that we're going to transition away from oil really shouldn't be controversial at this point - we have to do it if we're going to avoid catastrophic climate change. Maybe some jobs will be lost in the process but a lot of new ones will be created as we bring in more renewables. As long as there are transition/retraining programs in place for oil industry workers, this shouldn't be a huge political alarm bell.
  19. I know Daily Kos isn't a neutral source, but this article documents four insta-polls showing Biden the winner by about 10-15 points: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/22/1988826/-Biden-Wins-Instant-Debate-Poll-52-to-39-Improves-Favorable-Rating-by-3 Maybe there are also insta-polls showing Trump as the winner, I don't know. And it's possible that there were just more Biden supporters tuned in than Trump supporters. Honestly, I wasn't super-impressed with either of them. Trump improved over his performance in the last debate simply by being less obnoxious, but there's real
  20. Something I've noticed - neither of them are particularly good at contextualizing. They both tend to make references to things without really explaining what they're talking about, in a way that may make sense to those of us who follow politics closely but could just confuse people who don't.
  21. Biden needs to avoid any significant gaffes, remind everyone of Trump's failures on Covid, and generally come across as steady and trustworthy. Trump needs to land some sort of big attack against Biden that makes a significant portion of voters rethink their current intentions.
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