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RI Democrat

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RI Democrat last won the day on November 14 2009

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  1. I know oil is big in Texas, but is it really that big in Pennsylvania - are there a bunch of fracking jobs there or something? Saying that we're going to transition away from oil really shouldn't be controversial at this point - we have to do it if we're going to avoid catastrophic climate change. Maybe some jobs will be lost in the process but a lot of new ones will be created as we bring in more renewables. As long as there are transition/retraining programs in place for oil industry workers, this shouldn't be a huge political alarm bell.
  2. I know Daily Kos isn't a neutral source, but this article documents four insta-polls showing Biden the winner by about 10-15 points: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/22/1988826/-Biden-Wins-Instant-Debate-Poll-52-to-39-Improves-Favorable-Rating-by-3 Maybe there are also insta-polls showing Trump as the winner, I don't know. And it's possible that there were just more Biden supporters tuned in than Trump supporters. Honestly, I wasn't super-impressed with either of them. Trump improved over his performance in the last debate simply by being less obnoxious, but there's real
  3. Something I've noticed - neither of them are particularly good at contextualizing. They both tend to make references to things without really explaining what they're talking about, in a way that may make sense to those of us who follow politics closely but could just confuse people who don't.
  4. Biden needs to avoid any significant gaffes, remind everyone of Trump's failures on Covid, and generally come across as steady and trustworthy. Trump needs to land some sort of big attack against Biden that makes a significant portion of voters rethink their current intentions.
  5. I don't think many self-identified progressives are going to vote for Trump. At most they might stay home or vote third party.
  6. There's some data showing Trump doing a little better with people of color than in 2016: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/
  7. David Wasserman from the Cook Political Report says in this article that, based on polling in individual house districts, Biden is about halfway back to Obama 2012 levels of support among working-class white voters: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/biden-trump-battle-white-voters-district-level-polls-are-revealing/ If that's accurate, then I think he should do well enough in the Rust Belt to win, given how close the WI/PA/MI trifecta were last time around. Halfway back to Obama 2012 should be enough to tip those states into Biden's column along with the increased s
  8. I agree with you in theory, but the mandate has essentially been dead ever since they zeroed out the penalty in the tax cut bill a few years ago, and as far as I know, it hasn't led to people gaming the system in this way.
  9. There wasn't really a good choice for me on #2 - I supported the concessions on abortion, but I also favored the public option and would be open to efforts to expand the ACA through a public option and other government-based measures in the future.
  10. My natural pessimism leads me to fear that there could be something to this story, and I also wonder whether there wouldn't be potential legal consequences for Giuliani making such an inflammatory claim if it turns out not to be true. Wouldn't falsely accusing somebody of being a pedophile potentially be libel? On the other hand, the reported sequence of events doesn't seem to make much sense, and it also feels just a little too convenient that something like this happens to pop up right before the election. I guess the other possibility is that some disinformation operative planted this st
  11. Minnesota is usually a little more Democratic than Wisconsin - I would be surprised if Trump managed to win MN while losing WI.
  12. Maybe Biden's strategy is more to build a solid blue wall than to aim for a "big" win along the lines of, say, 315+ EVs. Which makes some sense - *if* they're confident that vote suppression and partisan court rulings won't somehow convert the blue wall states into wins for Trump. But perhaps they think they have a chance at winning all the blue wall states by enough of a margin that lawsuits, recounts, etc. can't reverse the outcome in any of them.
  13. That Wikipedia article needs some editing for bias - here's how the introductory section ends: Anyway, I was kind of hoping Labour would come up just shy of a majority so that they'd actually need to work with the Greens in order to govern. Still, in an era where the traditional center-left has been taking a beating, this counts for some good news.
  14. I agree that the coalition negotiations could use an upgrade. The other thing is that the computer-controlled parties never seem to negotiate with each other, or if they do, the negotiations must almost always fail. I can recall maybe one time that two computer-controlled parties formed a coalition.
  15. I was kind of surprised that Beck *didn't* support Trump in 2016. His populist brand of conservatism actually seems like it would be somewhat compatible with Trumpism.
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