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RI Democrat

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RI Democrat last won the day on November 14 2009

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  1. I've finished creating all the regions and percentages, based roughly on the RL results of the 2019 EU election. I did have to take some liberties with the parties, since some countries had multiple parties/lists running under the same EU affiliate, and obviously the PMI system can't accommodate that. The main problem I'm running into is that the RL formulas used to apportion seats are actually pretty complicated and not the sort of thing that I can easily convert into an Excel formula. If I use a simpler formula, such as just multiplying the percentage that each party wins by the number of se
  2. I've been thinking about redoing this scenario, this time using PM4I with the popular vote feature turned on and an Excel sheet to calculate seats based on the number of votes in each region. It wouldn't perfectly duplicate the EU's actual system for electing MEPs, but it would be closer, and I would also update the leadership candidates and background so that the UK is still participating at the time of the vote (as indeed they did IRL). Would people be interested in giving it a shot if I do that?
  3. How are those numbers showing Trump flipping Minnesota? It looks to me like Democrats have a 1-point advantage in the early vote with a sizeable percentage of independents.
  4. I don't quite get it either - even the R-leaning Trafalgar Group poll from today has Biden up by three in Minnesota - but perhaps it's just an abundance of caution given how unexpectedly close the state was last time around. I suppose we're about to find out whether there is in fact an ongoing problem with the polls in effectively measuring Trump's support or if 2016 was kind of a fluke in that regard.
  5. Hillary's campaign made the mistake of thinking the Blue Wall was solid, so I suspect that Biden's people are determined not to repeat that mistake. I don't believe that Biden is ahead by double digits in Blue Wall states, but I'm also skeptical of the notion that the polls are almost *all* wrong and that Trump is actually ahead in those states. Winning Florida would give him some insurance in case one of the Blue Wall states were to slip away, plus it gives him a positive election night storyline. My understanding is that they expect FL to finish almost all of its counting on election n
  6. Honestly, I'm mostly concerned now that we're going to get screwed over by postal delays and biased court rulings regarding any recounts or challenges that emerge. I think that a small but stable majority wants Trump gone, but I'm less confident that this will actually be reflected in the outcome.
  7. Both my elementary and secondary schools drew primarily from very conservative families - I was in a small minority supporting the Democrat in each of our mock elections (1984, 1988, and 1992). Though a few of the alums from my high school that I follow on Facebook seem to be a little more liberal now than they were back then.
  8. Didn't it happen to Jean Chretien once, or am I thinking of something else? Anyway, I was just quoting stereotypical 270soft scenario news headlines, though I think maybe "hit with pie" is absent from the newer versions.
  9. Trump Makes Gaffe on Covid Issue Noisy Protesters Outside Harris Event Biden Hit With Pie!
  10. Is there actually polling showing Biden doing better in Iowa than in Nevada? I suppose anything's possible, but that reminds me more of the sort of interesting-but-unlikely-in-real-life results that you sometimes get in a 270soft scenario when a state gets spammed with ads or something. I tend to be more of the view that local campaigning and advertising has only a small impact and that instead voters of similar backgrounds tend to move en masse across the country. So unless Biden is, for example, simultaneously maxing out with white working-class voters *and* slipping among Hispanic vote
  11. Why would he be investing these resources in Pennsylvania if it's a "lock"?
  12. Well, that was mostly during the primary. I don't remember the exact chronology, but Biden cemented his position as presumptive nominee only shortly before COVID got really bad. I don't think anybody disputes that Trump's base is more fervently attached to their candidate than Biden's is, but he's also alienated half the country to the point that many of us almost don't care who runs against him as long as it's some generally acceptable Democrat. I don't know if I'd bother going to a Biden rally if I had the opportunity, but that doesn't make me any less likely to vote for him next Tuesda
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