Hi everyone, first time I'm posting in the general forum.
I am less optimistic for Trump than I was a week ago. My election prediction method is simple- I take the polling average for every state on 538 and give Trump a 2% handicap to account for polling bias. Even with that advantage, he loses 279-259, though it would be extremely close in Pennsylvania. So, my current prediction is that Biden wins on a very small margin, but Trump still has a real chance of victory with a small improvement in Pennsylvania. It could get ugly if PA is the tipping point and it ends up being really close there.
I was torn on the higher turnout question. It really depends where that turnout is coming from. Is it coming from white working class and rural voters who usually don't care about politics, as was the theory in 2016? Or is it coming from minority communities and young people? The first scenario helps the Republicans and the second scenario helps the Democrats. Ultimately, I think both might be true, which results in an advantage for the Democrats since the pool of young and minority voters who didn't vote in 2016 is probably larger than the number of white working class voters who didn't vote in 2016.