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  1. Hi everyone, first time I'm posting in the general forum. I am less optimistic for Trump than I was a week ago. My election prediction method is simple- I take the polling average for every state on 538 and give Trump a 2% handicap to account for polling bias. Even with that advantage, he loses 279-259, though it would be extremely close in Pennsylvania. So, my current prediction is that Biden wins on a very small margin, but Trump still has a real chance of victory with a small improvement in Pennsylvania. It could get ugly if PA is the tipping point and it ends up being really close the
  2. I am creating my own version of the 2024 presidential election. I like how it turned out, except for one thing- it has the same outcome every time. I want it to be about a 50/50 chance for either party to win, but I have not been able to simulate a single Republican victory (except against far-left Democrats). I tried narrowing the percentage margin in battleground states, changing issue positions for both states and candidates, and messing around with the percentage of undecided voters. No matter what I do, it always ends the same, almost down to the percentage of the popular vote. So, m
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