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Defiant

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Everything posted by Defiant

  1. IIRC, some of the support Trump gained (especially in Florida) was from somewhat conservative Hispanic voters who were skeptical of Trump and voted for Clinton (or third party).
  2. One thing I'd like is if you could set your VP candidate to automatic, the same way surrogates can be, since I usually forget about the VP candidate and just focus on the presidential candidate. I guess, since VP candidates use the same pool of CP points, maybe the player would need to set how much CP the VP candidate should use per day.
  3. Yeah, there could be an issue where, say, you win two districts in Nebraska (giving you two electoral votes), but fail to get the two statewide EVs if your opponent one the third district, while you barely won those two districts. (with three candidates, you could even, in theory, have someone win the two statewide EVs and fail to win any of the district EVs).
  4. MI got called for Biden. Which, based on states/districts that have called, Biden just needs one of the remaining states (NV/PA/GA... or possibly NC?)
  5. I agree with this, except that I would probably avoid the term disjoint - it's not entirely disjoint, there are states within the same region or that have similar demographics that are usually very likely (if not always) going to vote in a similar way.
  6. I'd also point out that there are a number of states with similar percent of the vote counted as PA (eg, NY, NJ, CA, WA, etc) We just don't notice because they're not battleground states and can be called relatively quickly.
  7. I didn't know that (I mean, maybe I'd read about it at some point, but it probably went in one ear and out the other with all the way too much news about all the battleground states). But yeah, if they don't even start counting them for two days, then there's no way to expect them to be finished anytime soon.
  8. In that map, if Trump wins PA, NC, GA and ME-2, he still comes up short an electoral vote (268 EV). (Though I don't know if I would mark WI blue yet, even though it's looking good so far.)
  9. Florida has years of experience in heavy early and mail-in balloting. PA does not, and it's not something that's easy to do. Plus, IIRC, PA allows a few extra days for ballots that were postmarked on election day to arrive. (And let's not forget that it was FL that was the laughing stock 20 years ago. Let the state without sin cast the first stone )
  10. If you're a successful CEO (not how I would describe Trump), I think that would translate to 3-5 in terms of experience (since you would have experience as a manager, and that's part of the job of being President, but there's also other things about being President that are very different from being a CEO). Hell, I would even give someone who only successfully won a competitive primary, with no other experience at all, a 1, simply because managing a successful campaign is also relevant managerial experience.
  11. Scott Walker of all people, pouring cold water on Trump's chances in WI. https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1324002777597677569
  12. NBC calls Texas for Trump Decision Desk calls NE-2 for Biden.
  13. MN has been called for Biden. NE-2 is looking fairly good for Biden (15% lead with 20% of the vote reaming to count, although that's going to be election day votes so it'll get closer.) GA is going to tighten because the only votes left to count are in Atlanta.
  14. Fox called AZ for Biden.
  15. 538 defines it as a double digit margin in the popular vote. Personally, I'm more generous and would consider Obama's 1st win (7.2% in the popular vote, 192 in the EC) a "landslide" relative to how partisan and close the elections have been in the last twenty years.
  16. I guess it depends on how we're defining "landslide", but I really don't think there's a realistic chance of a Trump landslide. If Trump wins, it'll be a narrower victory than 2016 (and I wouldn't have called that one a landslide).
  17. If Trump wins, it will take at least a day or two to find out. He's going to need 1-2 of the midwestern states to win, and given how slow their counting will be, I don't see any of them being called tonight.
  18. I put this in another thread, but I predict that Biden will win somewhere around 330 EV (give or take). Now to wait the day or two or twenty until we find out.
  19. I imagine, between 2000 and the increased complexity because of the amount of early + absentee voting, they won't jump to concede unless it's unambiguous. If it is ambiguous, they'll probably wait a day or two until the situation is clear (or longer, if it's still close/requires a recount/etc) I think it's possible Trump's concession might be more of a defacto concession (eg, not stirring stuff up) rather than an official concession (eg, calling up Biden, etc).
  20. I think Biden is going to win. I think he wins all of Clinton states + the blue wall + NE-2, he very likely wins at least 3 of the following 4: NC, GA, FL and AZ. He probably wins all the ME districts. I don't think he's likely to win Iowa, TX or Ohio, but it's possible if he's having a very good night. So lets say somewhere around 330 EVs give or take.
  21. 0 days to go, and Biden just won Dixville notch (five whole votes to zero votes).
  22. Maybe follow Wasserman on Twitter? You could probably also look them up individually (I know some election websites in the past showed how candidates were doing in each county. I think the NYT one did.), but that means having a bunch of pages open and refreshing them every so often (and maybe occasionally finding they won't load cause everyone else is doing the same thing)
  23. Bellwethers for the battleground states according to Dave Wasseman: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/06/opinion/biden-trump-bellwether-counties-.html Kent County, Mich. Wood County, Ohio Erie County, Penn. Sauk County, Wis Marshall County, Iowa Maricopa County, Ariz Pinellas County, Fla Peach County, Ga. New Hanover County, N.C. Collin County, Texas
  24. Directly, no. But fairly similarly? Yeah. It's election vs election. It's not election vs stock market or election vs weather or election vs die rolling. And, as far as I can tell, the models are very similar. First off, it's an estimate - as such, I wouldn't rate it as a Boolean, but see just how good it is. Similarly, my 66% from earlier was just an approximation. It's not an exact, but it's a very good approximation. Second, I don't think that 51 is sufficient by itself (I would include the house and senate races and also run the model on prior elections, too). But from a basic look of what is far too few die throws, while there's clearly room for improvement, but it didn't perform that horribly, either. Of the 10 states they gave high 70s/low 80s probabilities to, 7 times they were right, and 3 times, the underdog won. (I'd also say that the model relies on polling, and the polling clearly didn't capture the shift from the Comey letter - the model is unlikely to capture something that's not captured by the polling.)
  25. Sure, they're different, but they're not radically different (they're all elections, not radically different types of events being modeled) and my understanding is that the models are very similar. And yes, each state is it's own election and can (and *should*, given the EC) be treated as separate.
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