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Defiant

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  1. About damn time. Even a plurality of Labor voters support this decision. https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1321904985513361408
  2. OK, here are the margins in the final polling averages from fivethirtyeight (as I mentioned above) from 2016 with the current averages in fivethirtyeight. Margin in 2016, margin in 2020 and the change between them. All in Biden's direction except for SC. AZ: -1.7 for Clinton, +3.1 for Biden, 4.8 to Biden FL: +1.3 for Clinton, +2.1 for Biden, 0.8 to Biden GA: -3.7 for Clinton, +1.6 for Biden, 5.3 to Biden IA: -3.1 for Clinton, +0.1 for Biden, 3.2 to Biden MI: +4.1 for Clinton, +8.8 for Biden, 4.7 to Biden MN: +7.3 for Clinton, +8.9 for Biden, 1.6 to Biden MO: -10.3 fo
  3. Fivethrityeight also has the polling averages for 2016. Go to the applicable state page and then go down to the "From polls to forecast" section, where the first thing is the "Polling average" https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/arizona/
  4. RCP should have polling averages. But... are you using Clinton v Trump polls, or are you using polls that include third parties?
  5. Assuming no successful shenanigans, and assuming no huge OctoberNovember surprise comes out in the next few days (that eclipses the covid spike) - and I'm doubtful of either possibility - then I think there's a 95+% of Biden winning.
  6. Yeah, the polls aren't tightening (and there's more polling of the battleground states going on, that it should be more likely for them to detect a shift if there is one).
  7. I'm not sure that's true. Looking at 2008, Alabama wasn't called for 40 minutes even though McCain won it by 20+ points, and Mississippi wasn't called for two hours, even though McCain won it by 13 points. Of course, there are counterexamples (For example, West Virginia was called right away with a win by McCain of 13 points) https://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2008/pe2008elecnighttime.php I would think that battleground states they would want to be careful about, *especially* this year when you've got so many people voting early/mail-in that might add
  8. Speaking of Miami Dade: (let me see if embedding a tweet works for me.) https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322214250413215744 Edit: No it doesn't.
  9. Are you asking about his ranking as a president, or the ranking of his election loss?
  10. Great to see one of Biden's top surrogates campaigning strongly for him.
  11. Oh, one possible way that high turnout could help both parties is downballot in the "solid" states of the other party. So Republicans down ballot in blue states where they normally don't bother to vote because they have no chance of winning at the state level, and Democrats down ballot in red states.
  12. High turnout tends to help Democrats, but it's not an absolute rule. There have been low turnout elections where Democrats have won (1996), and high turnout elections where Republicans have won (2004, 2016).
  13. Wouldn't that cause it to flip to Biden? (Although it wasn't exactly clear to me the color it was on the map - likely an optical illusion thing since it's between dark red.)
  14. If I were god, I would have a perspective that's nothing like that of a human. So... I dunno. (If I were god, though, I'd be all knowing, and I'd be able to know the answer to your question).
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