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PoliticalPundit

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Posts posted by PoliticalPundit

  1. 36 minutes ago, vcczar said:

    Sure it was relatively close (although not in the PV), but you have to also remember that Biden beat Trump without even really campaigning. Trump had rallies...Biden had occasional small gatherings. He basically slept through the 2020 election and still beat Trump in the EC and crushed him in the PV. That's a pretty embarrassing defeat, although I think most of the defeat was due to Trump routinely shooting himself in the foot, rather than anything Biden said or did.  

    "Crushed him in PV" = that wasn't the game they were playing.

    There was nothing embarrassing about it. 45K is absolutely nothing and rallies weren't even a positive during COVID. Do you not remember the media going absolutely all in for Biden saying what a blowout it would be? Democrats couldn't even celebrate given how close the race was and how far off they were in results. 

  2. 14 minutes ago, vcczar said:

    Sounds exactly like Trump, to be honest. We heard stuff like this about him all the time. If this is true for Harris too, it's definitely a terrible personality trait. 

     

    Also sounds like Trump. Again, if true, it's deplorable behavior in Harris. It definitely makes me hope she isn't ever president, although I'd reluctantly support her if she were the nominee. I think the only GOP politician I'd support over a bad Democrat at this point is Charlie Baker, Bill Weld, and possibly Larry Hogan. 

    I think it's odd that you seem to care about this kind of behavior when it comes from Harris and not from Trump, who was consistently reported to refuse wading into briefing materials and berating people in his administration. You seem to be okay with the bully mentality when the ideology matches your own. While, I'd admit I'd vote for a Harris administration if forced to, I would in no way defend her behavior if she was a female Trump. 

    I don't personally care about either BUT given Kamala presents a very different public image contrary to these reports, therein lies the hypocrisy. Trump is literally known for saying, "You're fired" time and time again it's not a surprise he's a difficult boss (but very loyal which we've gotten no sense from Kamala bout). 

     

    Kamala's issue seem to stem more from incompetence and horrible morale while Trump just has high standards and is erratic. 

  3. 15 hours ago, vcczar said:

     

    • While Trump's net favorability has changed somewhat since leaving office-- he was negative 18 net favorability in February, there's nothing to suggest that his net favorability will improve with Biden's approval tanking. An unfavorable one-term president is likely always going to have a difficult time in an election. A Trump victory can happen, but it cannot be likely, no matter how faith-based his supporters are. Certainly, Biden's stagnation gives him the possibility of victory, but a Biden rising to 47% would likely be impossible to defeat for Trump, I think. A Biden with 45% might even be a favorite. A Biden at 42%, as he is now, is basically a tossup against Trump but an underdog against someone like DeSantis. 
    •  

    Why are you acting like the 2020 race wasn't incredibly close? Trump lost by about 45,000 with negative momentum heading into Election Day, pollsters and pundits predicting a massive Biden win and of course the sketchiest voting we've seen in years if ever bc of covid and other factors. 45,000! That's nothing.

     

    Absolutely anyone Republican even Richard Nixon could defeat Biden at this point. It is incredibly likely to happen, and as mentioned favorability doesn't matter whatsoever it's approval that counts. 

     

    According to Gallup before election, Clinton had 47% favorability while Trump had 36%, 11% difference. How'd that work out? 

     

    The bottom line is if Biden continues to be an unpopular president, he is not beating Trump. People will hold their nose and either vote Trump or not vote at all. We will have seen 4 years of Biden by that point, there is no mystery or great hope people could imagine how a "Biden administration" would look after seeing it firsthand. 

     

    The Hill poll says it all if the election were held today. With Trump cruising to an easy GOP victory, it will just be part 2 Biden vs Trump (with a much better VP) only Biden cannot rely on Covid to avoid having to do numerous campaign trips. 

     

    Things will only get worse after the midterms for Biden's approval ratings unless the party can miraculously turn it around. 

  4. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/12/04/kamala-harris-staff-departures/

     

    - senior advisor and chief spokesperson Symone Sanders leaving

    -communications chief and two other staffers

    what is going on??

    "Critics scattered over two decades point to an inconsistent and at times degrading principal who burns through seasoned staff members who have succeeded in other demanding, high-profile positions. "

    "Staffers who worked for Harris before she was vice president said one consistent problem was that Harris would refuse to wade into briefing materials prepared by staff members, then berate employees when she appeared unprepared.

    “It’s clear that you’re not working with somebody who is willing to do the prep and the work,” one former staffer said. “With Kamala you have to put up with a constant amount of soul-destroying criticism and also her own lack of confidence. So you’re constantly sort of propping up a bully and it’s not really clear why.”"

    reminds me an awful lot of the Politico piece on her horrible presidential run. 

    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/15/kamala-harris-campaign-2020-071105

     

    ---

    A  trump vs. Harris 2024 race would be one of the biggest blowouts in US recent history. 

  5. Favorability vs. Approval is totally different. I don't really factor in favorability.

     

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/584585-more-voters-would-pick-trump-over-biden-if-election-were-held-today-poll

     

    More voters would back former President Trump than President Biden in a hypothetical match-up if the 2024 election were held today, according to a new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey released exclusively to The Hill.

     

    Forty-eight percent of voters in the survey said they would back Trump, compared with 45 percent for Biden. Another 8 percent were unsure.

    The results were evenly split at 46 percent among women, while men backed Trump by a margin of 50 percent to 43 percent. Biden won urban voters by 20 percentage points and suburban voters by 4 percentage points, but Trump romped among rural voters by 33 percentage points.

    • Thanks 1
  6. 1 hour ago, Anthony_270 said:

    Then it will be impossible for Biden to win. Variants are just what you get with RNA viruses like this. Predictable and predicted.

    From a WHO whistleblower from last year (2020).

     

    Saw a poll asking if they think airlines will have mandatory masks in 2023 and 65-70% said yes. If this is the new "reality" we will be in forever no way Biden will win. What is he going to run on?? At least DeSantis GOP can say they want to totally move on from this COVID thing, Dems are on the wrong side of that the more we go into the future. 

    • Thanks 1
  7. 1 hour ago, Anthony_270 said:

    I agree that, if Biden's term continues going the way it has gone the first year, more and more people will hold their nose and vote Trump.

    Or just not vote for either, particularly minorities. No way the black vote is what it was in 2020 at this rate, and the Hispanic vote moved tremendously towards Trump. 

  8. 2 hours ago, vcczar said:

    I seriously doubt that. 

    2020 was the perfect storm of covid, weird voting rules, and a safe candidate who had strong approval ratings from both sides. And he still lost a very very close race.

     

    2022 midterms will be a huge test. Whether you think trump is a bad candidate or not, republicans are in great shape if Biden continues to govern how he does for a pretty dominant sweep. And if he doesn’t run there are 0 Good Democratic options

     

    trumps approval, favorable marks etc will never be lower than they were as he handled covid. The worst of his mishaps are in the past especially with no Twitter 

  9. 57 minutes ago, vcczar said:

    Oh yeah. Forgot I said that. Yeah, that would be their best ticket still, but it wouldn't be possible. Maybe Scott/Noem or DeSantis/Haley. Haley/Scott might be good too. DeSantis/Noem. Basically, anyone but Trump would be an upgrade. Since I strongly dislike the GOP, I'd find Baker/Hogan as probably the best ticket if I were forced to vote GOP. Obviously, neither person would win nomination in 2024.

    As much as you dislike Trump, the momentum and energy he would bring given the circumstances of the world today would trump any "hate" he has from others. Yes he would inspire more from the Democratic base, but it's tough to hate a guy or be so inspired to vote against him when he hasn't been in office for 4 years.  

     

     

     

  10. 1 hour ago, IndependentPerson said:

    Except that they're both from the same state...

    Tim Scott is not ready for President yet, I'd need to see him tested more because it's been smooth sailing. But as a VP a perfect choice besides DeSantis (I'd probably go Scott depending on if Pete B is in the picture or not) 

     

    Not a fan of Haley personally. She doesn't seem that impressive in speeches, her flip flopping on Trump reminds me of Romney and I think the media would eat her alive. 

     

    Good luck trying to paint Scott with the racist flag. I recall liberals calling him an Uncle ___ which was the most disgusting and ineffective attack I've seen. 

  11. 3 hours ago, vcczar said:

    I think he’s his best VP option but hardly unbeatable with Trump on the ticket. 50/50 at best. DeSantis/Scott would be stronger. I think Scott/Haley would be the GOP’s best ticket.

    unbeatable. as we talked about with the minority vote, this would be both a historic and unstoppable combination. especially given the awful options on the Democratic side. 

    I'd even risk saying that trump and Scott would get at minimum 15% of the Black vote and most likely more against a Kamala/Pete ticket or vice versa. 30% if Pete is front of the ticket 

  12. 6 hours ago, vcczar said:

    That’s not a good analogy. Business insider isn’t far left. It’s center left according to media bias check. Thus, it’s likely much more credible than any alt right link since it’s only lightly partisan. 

    Do you have any evidence that the business insider article is spreading false information?

    Do you believe most things on Fox News and other right leaning sights are true information? 

  13. 10 hours ago, vcczar said:

    That's pretty much going to be the case with any demographic that is going 9/10 to the other party. One can't do worse with the demographic so the room for growth potential is clearly there. All it takes is making some concessions towards black voters. For instance, a GOP nominee that suddenly promises to take on police brutality and endorses BLM would probably instantly take like 15% from this group. The issue is that most GOPers don't want to risk embracing black-specific policies and upset their white, non-college educated voter base. 

    Democrats could also make inroads in strong GOP demographics. Although, I can think of a single demographic that votes GOP 9/10. Evangelicals don't even vote 9/10 GOP, I don't think. 

    If you didn't see the numbers that Trump did with Hispanics in Florida, AND the gains he made with black voters despite the media bashing the "Racist" card over the head with him you are fooling yourself. What has Biden done for minorities since taking office that is anything of substance? He can barely get through a speech on race without accidentally saying some 1920's ethnic slur. 

     

    The bigger issue for Trump is how many suburban white people flocked back to Biden. 

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/did-trump-draw-out-new-latino-republican-voter-bloc-florida-n1248577

     

    In all, support for Trump among Cuban Americans increased only slightly from 2016, but his backing among Latinos in Florida who do not identify as Cuban or Puerto Rican went up significantly, to 50 percent, according to NBC News exit polls. Some experts say the number may be a little lower. Still, this group is a significant part of the state's Latino electorate, at 40 percent, while Cubans, the largest Latino voter group, are 29 percent.

     

    According to NBC News exit polls, 45 percent of Latino voters in Florida supported Trump, up by 10 percentage points from 2016.

     

    Miami-Dade, the state's biggest county, dramatically shifted from being a reliably blue county that Hillary Clinton won by 30 points in 2016 to what some experts are now calling a purple county — after Joe Biden won by only 7 points.

  14. 1 hour ago, vcczar said:

    Oh yeah, I remember him. He does have some promise, ideology aside. 

    Totally incorrect. Democrats are much more attractive to Blacks (see the fact below). As long as they're getting 9/10 of them to vote Democrats, you can't say that "GOP is doing a much better job attracting African American voters to the party." That's so far from the truth that I have to question much of your gut instinct. It actually went up by 1%. I could see a non-Trump get this down to 87% or 85% but 85% to 15% is not doing "a much better job." Democrats appoint more black politicians to Federal appointed offices and pass legislation more frequently that is supported by black voters. The whole BLM and gun control initiatives, and etc.--STRONGLY favored by Black voters--are supported by Democrats with only a few GOP exceptions. 

    Contrary to the fears of some Democrats, Biden maintained solid support among African Americans. Biden received 92% of the Black vote, statistically indistinguishable from Hillary Clinton’s 91% in 2016.

    Source: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2021/07/06/new-2020-voter-data-how-biden-won-how-trump-kept-the-race-close-and-what-it-tells-us-about-the-future/

     

    Of course Democrats are more attractive to Africans Americans right now, but the GROWTH in support is clearly on the Republicans side. If they can get even 5-7% more of the black vote in 2024 the election is over no matter who runs. 

     

    Since 2008: 95% black men 96% black woman

    2012: 87% black men (HUGE drop) 96% black woman

    2016: 82% black men (another big drop) 94% black woman

    2020: 80% black men 91% black woman

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/black-men-drifted-democrats-toward-trump-record-numbers-polls-show-n1246447

     

    There were a few groups that appear to have driven this shift toward President Donald Trump among Black men. Over half of Black men (52 percent) who identified as ideologically conservative cast their vote for the president, and 1 in 3 Black men living in the Midwest also voted for him.

     About 26 percent of Black men who had a high school diploma or less supported Trump. But 22 percent of Black men with bachelor’s degrees and 20 percent of Black men with advanced degrees also supported him. 

     

    The poll states that 67 percent of Black people in the U.S. said they somewhat or strongly approve of the way Biden is handling his job as president, down from 85 percent just two months previously—a fall of 18 percentage points.

    https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-approval-rating-fallen-most-black-adults-pew-1638502

    ---

    This is also taking into account Biden had Kamala Harris as his VP and yet still his numbers were this poor. And along with her disastrous approval rating, not letting her be the nominee would be a disaster for the African American base. 

    All I'm saying is that you're going to be stunned at the numbers if Buttigeg or even Biden runs again. Biden has done absolutely nothing for voting rights, police laws and frankly I question your judgement if you don't see the patterns and writing on the wall.

     

    The GOP is making MASSIVE inroads with the African American community (and Hispanics and Asian Americans) and you'll see it at the polls in 2022. 

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