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Hestia11 last won the day on September 22

Hestia11 had the most liked content!

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About Hestia11

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    Iowa Democrat

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    Germany, UK politics, France, European Union, Turkey, ME dynamics

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  1. Very interesting details on polling and by region how far polls were off.
  2. I think a Trump win narrowly (maybe less than half a point), as well as a somewhat healthier Greenfield win (1.5 or so points). I could see any combination of things happening there. What do you think NE-2 will be? Biden and Bacon? Or Dem sweep?
  3. Aww If admin does one of his "place your bets on the EC margin" on the blog, I'm going to go Texas blue to try and shake it up a little bit.
  4. *Continuing my fascination with Texas I'd have reason to bet O'Rourke is the candidate, but I could also be wrong.
  5. Hestia11

    Yes or No

    I must give it balance
  6. Yeah...not buying it. It's the *RNC*'s data. They'll tell everyone what they want them to be told.
  7. Smart, but unfortunately too late. There's 7 days left and over half of the turnout of 2016 has already voted. Now it's just turning out the base and praying that'll be enough on the GOP side.
  8. My prediction is roughly the same. I believe his chances have improved in Texas considerably, and stayed level roughly everywhere else. Trump simply hasn't been able to shake up the race. My conservative teacher today (after we discussed the SC ) said that he thought the Hunter Biden stuff was planted/made up. If the GOP thinks leaning on that in the closing days will win them anything, it won't.
  9. I don't think so. Vote blue no matter who was a big thing and is still. Many have realized after the SC fiasco how important it is to vote Democratic no matter what. Lack of third party support in polling reflects that
  10. This is the bane of my existence I think both parties are trying to redeploy and shake up the race in the final days somehow. I think the ad buys and changes, visits to different states, etc. reflect that.
  11. I don't think that's really that telling, in my opinion. A lot of factors influence how crowds respond to things, including if they heard the speaker after applauding, which could've happened. I don't care enough to look into it lol.
  12. And you would know that because...? I personally have a friend who voted for Bernie in the primaries, and vowed at that time to never vote for Biden. I am a little cautious about politics around her We were talking the other day, and she told me when she mailed in her ballot she voted for Biden, citing Supreme Court, etc. I wouldn't be confident Bernie Bros are going for Trump
  13. If this was talking about Hillary Clinton, this would have a very different connotation I assume. He's simply cash strapped and having to pull money from states getting too far out of the orbit.
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