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Alxeu

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Everything posted by Alxeu

  1. My ideal reform would be an end to the electoral college, establishment of instant-runoff for all Senate and Presidential Elections, with the House constituted of a proportional representation of each state's vote. That'd probably be the fairest you could make the entire system, as that's the most devolution of electoral power away from the parties and to the people, and the less power the two political parties have, the better.
  2. Alxeu

    1 day to go

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/323210/voters-enthusiastic-anxious-2020-campaign-ends.aspx Interesting polling from Gallup seems to indicate an enthusiasm gap... in favor of the Democrats. Other metrics there are interesting, 42% of Republicans polled intended to vote today, while only 24% of Democrats polled intended to do so. The majority of both groups either intended to vote prior to Election Day, or had already voted when polled between mid-October and late-October. There's ups and downs for both sides in this polling, imo. Enthusiasm gap helps the Dems, but the voting stats might favor the Republicans, in light of Democrat fears over the early voting process.
  3. Alxeu

    1 day to go

    I don't have much to say on points 1 and 2, as I won't contest the factual nature of his primary results, and I'm uncertain on the statistics for 2, but on 3, incumbency is not always an advantage. 1992 is a good example, as well as countless senatorial and house elections since. If the incumbent is unpopular, that tends to do more harm than any amount of boost gained from incumbency. Say what you will about his popularity with his base, but for basically the entirety of his presidency, the majority of the American people have been opposed to Trump.
  4. Alxeu

    1 day to go

    That's what my general suspicion is, as well. There certainly seems to be more enthusiasm and desire to beat Trump this time around, whereas I haven't seen anything indicating Trump's grown his support significantly since 2016. I also still believe the Democrats will find a way to lose the election, despite this.
  5. Alxeu

    1 day to go

    I'd peg a more conservative 60-40 for Trump as the maximum on Election Day, for reasons I mentioned above. If early voting margins aren't as strong as the Democrats like, it's probably because Republicans are voting early, as well. Granted, I haven't actually seen the early voting results and interpreted them for myself. If it's just that not as many people are turning out to early vote as expected (which seems unlikely, imo), then there'd actually be a problem for the Dems.
  6. Alxeu

    1 day to go

    Hard to say if that's because Biden's supporters have low enthusiasm, or if Trump supporters are hopping on the early voting train, too. If we take 2016's results, and translate a scenario where 100% of Democrats vote early, and the remaining share of the early vote is Republicans, then the maximum possible favorability of the early voting results is roughly 65% Democrat, 35% Republican. Since such a scenario is the hypothetical maximum, it stands to reason that it would be somewhat less. We can't predict the results of an election based purely off of early voting results, after all. There'd still be a large chunk of people who were uncounted in the result. Again, assuming 2016 numbers, 136.6 million Americans voted. That means that, at minimum, we're looking at another 36.6 million people, at least, and if there's one thing I can assume you'd agree with, is that turnout will be higher than in 2016. I'm hesitant to trust any type of prior knowledge from previous elections, simply due to the pandemic, which has already resulted in a historic spike in early voting results, which has almost certainly skewed the results away from their usual percentages. As a side note, voted absentee a couple weeks ago, my first Presidential Election, but not my first election, as I voted in the 2018 midterms, previously.
  7. Alxeu

    1 day to go

    I'm sure he'd have had a more normal campaign had COVID-19 not happened. Regardless of the outcome, I'm taking the comparisons of the campaign strategies with a grain of salt: Biden supporters presumably support his limited rallies, whereas Trump supporters presumably support him holding rallies. Biden would stand to lose from following Trump's lead, Trump would stand to lose from following Biden's lead.
  8. In regards to the last one, while I have wide-reaching ideas of how to make the country a better place, I doubt my ability to translate such ideas into legalese free of loopholes, and I therefore feel that I could only make things worse by attempting.
  9. Picked Southern Democrat who supported the bill because that's the region of the country I'm from. I'd probably be a Republican, in actuality, though, but the hypothetical Southern Republican in favor doesn't exist.
  10. A few minutes ago, a fly landed on Pence's head and hung around in his hair. Very distracting, and hilarious, imo.
  11. My home state. Was always one of the least reliably blue states in the South, and was among those which flipped red first, though it also voted Democrat more recently than many Southern states. Had Gore carried Tennessee, Florida would've been irrelevant.
  12. There's an interesting CGP Grey video on this topic. He actually notes that many tribal reservations prefer the term American Indian (or just Indian), as opposed to Native American. This is because many tribes feel that Native American is overinclusive and binds together all indigenous groups of North and South America, whereas American Indian/Indian is more directly appropriate for tribes residing within the lands of the United States.
  13. A two-round popular vote election like in France for the Presidency. Proportional allocation of House of Representatives seats. Expanding the size of the House/uncapping it, altogether.
  14. I'm not entirely convinced that Puerto Rico would be a 100% Democratic pickup. The leading pro-statehood party has elected members that caucus with both the Republicans and the Democrats. Since I'm also not entirely convinced local Puerto Rican parties would be subsumed into mainstream US political parties for some time, I think it's rather likely that Puerto Rico will end up getting closer to 50/50 in Congress, potentially, depending on where the PNP (New Progressive Party) candidates end up falling in the political spectrum, and whether they would lose anywhere to the opposition parties, there. I think a re-branding of the message for Puerto Rican statehood like that, as a new possible swing-state, might increase the odds that it gains statehood in the near future, significantly. I'm, of course, in favor of Puerto Rican statehood if they want it, and believe in a D.C. solution where they at least get a voting seat in the House of Representatives, if nothing else (Out of all the options presented, however, I'd prefer they receive statehood).
  15. The Election of 1924: During Hughes' first term, America was an optimistic nation: the economy was booming, the world was returning to peace (though America had never joined the Great War), and with the passage of an amendment limiting Presidential terms to two, Hughes ran for his second and final term. The Democrats offered a token rematch, with few Democrats wishing to challenge the popular President, and Hughes won easily in a landslide. The Election of 1928: Unsurprisingly, with the economy still strong, and Hughes still immensely popular as he left office, Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover easily beat out the controversial Democratic nominee Governor Al Smith. However, his first term would be interrupted by the beginning of the Great Depression, and it seemed likely he would lose reelection in 1932. The Election of 1932: Against all odds, Herbert Hoover would achieve reelection in 1932, owing to two major turns of fortune: the first being the defeat of the popular Franklin D. Roosevelt at the Democratic convention, losing to former Secretary of War Newton D. Baker, and the second being Roosevelt's own effective sabotage of Bake's candidacy following the "Third Corrupt Bargain." The resulting Democratic infighting, and the depression in turnout amongst Democratic voters caused by Roosevelt's defeat at convention, despite having the most support, meant that Hoover narrowly won the popular vote, and carried the election. The Election of 1936: The failure of the Hoover Administration to even attempt to address the Great Depression, meant that, even though the economy was slowly recovering, many Americans were determined to not vote for the Republicans in the next election. As a result, the Democratic nominee, Senator Cordell Hull, would easily beat out Governor Alf Landon to become President, and he would soon implement many policies that were part of Roosevelt's promised New Deal four years prior, restoring faith in the government even as peace abroad seemed to be ending. The Election of 1940: The Republicans, in an attempt to challenge the popular President, nominated a Democrat opposed to the New Deal in an attempt to rally against the government's expansion, Wendell Wilkie. However, President Hull instead focused on the war abroad, arguing that Americans should "Not Change Ships Mid-Stream." Americans, convinced by this argument reelected Hull in a landslide.
  16. The Election of 1904: Roosevelt proved to be immensely popular throughout the rest of McKinley's term, and when he decided to run for a term of his own, it seemed likely he would easily beat whomever the Democrats nominated for President. Bryan, perhaps sensing this, opted not to run, and instead backed the candidacy of Francis Cockrell, who, surprising all, would emerge as the nominee of the Democratic Party. While President Roosevelt touted his presidency to prove he was a capable commander-in-chief, Republican agents brought up the fact that this was the second ex-Confederate general the Democrats had nominated. Democrats nationwide were demotivated by Cockrell's nomination, and moderates and progressives flocked to Roosevelt's banner. The result was a crushing defeat for Cockrell, who depressed Democratic support so much that the party only managed to win in Alabama. The Election of 1908: Following the Election of 1904, it became clear that a miracle would be needed to save the Democrats from disappearing and melding into the Republican/Progressive parties. Thus entered William Jennings Bryan, in his second attempt at the Presidency. Challenging Secretary of War William Howard Taft, Bryan called for even more progressive measures than Roosevelt had supported. The results were outstanding. Whether perhaps due to Roosevelt's own desire to not use his personal popularity to boost Taft, Taft's own lack of charisma in regards to the American public, or even Republican campaign agents tying the Democratic Party to the Confederacy one too many times, Bryan ended up winning every single state in the Union. Taft, embarrassed by the defeat, retired from politics immediately, while the Republican Party as a whole saw immense internal dissent following the complete change of fortunes from the previous election - the party had lost about 52% of the vote since the last election. The Election of 1912: After just four years in office, President Bryan had surged to unprecedented heights in popularity, and it showed: not even the popular ex-President Theodore Roosevelt managed to win a single state against him, and now, just like how it seemed the Democratic Party would cease to exist 8 years earlier, so too now was the idea considered regarding the Republican Party... The Election of 1916: Surprising many, in 1916, Bryan sought a 3rd term, stating that the other major Democrats within the party were not committed enough to keeping America out of the Great War, and thus, to ensure America's continued neutrality, he would run for a 3rd term to see the war through to its conclusion, without American involvement. The Republicans ran the popular former governor of New York, Charles Evans Hughes, a committed Progressive who also supported American neutrality. Despite Bryan's breaking precedent, he was still largely popular, and easily won against Hughes, though his failure to win all 48 states indicated to the Republicans that the party was not yet lost. The Election of 1920: With Bryan feeling out a possible 4th term, Republicans united around Charles Evans Hughes a second time, proclaiming that since he had wounded Bryan's invincibility, maybe he could pull out a victory for the Republicans against the populist. However, it would be the Democratic Party that shattered Bryan's perceived invincibility, rebelling at the convention, and nominating Governor James M. Cox, instead. This internal divide in the Democrats, along with Hughes' popularity and a promise of a "Return to Normalcy" won the Republicans the day.
  17. The Election of 1884: The Election of 1884 saw a return to form for the Republicans, with the Half-Breed James G. Blaine, who supported moderate reforms to the civil service, as well as a reduction in America's general isolationism towards the rest of the world. His opponent, Vice President Thomas A. Hendricks, would fail to carry a single northern state, and lost in a landslide to Blaine. The Election of 1888: The contested Democratic convention in 1888 ultimately saw the Southern delegates rally behind William Henry Fitzhugh Lee, son of the famous (or infamous) Confederate general. His nomination singlehandedly sabotaged any change of a Democratic victory in the election, as President Blaine easily carried every state outside the former Confederacy, as well as most of the Upper South. Lee even failed to win Virginia due to a depressed turnout amongst Democratic voters nationwide. The Election of 1892: The nomination of W.H.F. Lee in 1888 had caused massive damage to the Democratic Party nationwide, and the party had not fully recovered by the Election of 1892. As a result, the Republicans, who easily united around Benjamin Harrison, managed to win without much difficulty, though the Democrats and their candidate, David B. Hill, proved the nomination of Lee had not damaged their national reputation too disastrously. The Election of 1896: Despite great support for the Populists and the great charisma of William Jennings Bryan, the Democratic party chose instead to nominate Richard P. Bland, who, in comparison to the promises and personal charisma of Governor William McKinley, seemed rather bland. A year following his election, McKinley would lead the United States into war against Spain, a victorious war that catapulted America firmly onto the world stage. The Election of 1900: Despite his immense popularity following the election of 1896, someone had to run against President McKinley. William Jennings Bryan, snubbed in the Democratic convention in 1896, was the only man the Democrats could find willing to run against McKinley. To his credit, Bryan's immense charisma and popularity with the masses pulled a larger amount of voters towards him than Bland managed in 1896. However, McKinley would not get to celebrate victory for long. Early into his second term, he would be assassinated by an anarchist, resulting in his Vice President, Theodore Roosevelt, taking his place as President.
  18. The Election of 1864: With the Civil War raging somewhat inconclusively (sure, the Union was winning, but not decisively) for four years, it seemed possible that President Lincoln might lose reelection to General George McClellan and the Copperheads. However, Union victories leading up to election day solidly shifted Northern opinions on the war, resulting in Lincoln's easy reelection. However, early into his second term, as the Civil War wound to a close, Lincoln would be assassinated, and his Vice President, Hannibal Hamlin, would serve the rest of his term, firmly following the policy of Radical Reconstruction. The Election of 1868: In the years leading up the 1868 Election, Reconstruction barred many Southern Democrats from voting, and the party as a whole was seen as a nest of un-American Confederate sympathizers. This public perception led to an easy victory for General Ulysses S. Grant, and the beginning of one of the most corrupt administrations in US history. Meanwhile, in Florida, a similar failure to one that occurred in Delaware in a previous election meant their votes were left unallocated in the Electoral College. The Election of 1872: Despite the general dissatisfaction with the corrupt officials within Grant's administration, the President was by and large still personally popular, and when the Democrats tried to unite the party behind an opposing Republican candidate to Grant, many Southern voters refused to even go and vote, resulting in an overwhelming victory for Grant. The Election of 1876: In 1876, opposition to Reconstruction in both the North and South had reached an all-time high. As a result, it seemed not only possible, but extremely likely that a Democratic candidate could win in 1876, and with the selection of Samuel J. Tilden, the Democrats had found their champion. Despite the final overwhelming victory for Tilden, there was a significant amount of controversy surrounding the victory, as Republicans tried to argue that some of the votes in a few of the Southern States still under Reconstruction had been processed incorrectly, leading Tilden to gain an unwarranted win in those states. However, given that they had lost conclusively in other regions of the nation, the case was not pursued. The Election of 1880: Tilden's first term was incredibly popular nationally, and with great national support he ran for a second term. With the initial stigma of being associated with the Confederacy now gone from the Democratic Party, Tilden won by a greater margin than his first victory, beating out Senator John Sherman of Ohio.
  19. The Election of 1844: Due to the fallout from Jackson's closure of the National Bank causing the Panic of 1841, Martin Van Buren is beat in his party's primaries by James K. Polk, a dark horse expansionist who wants to annex Texas and pursue Manifest Destiny. Opposing him is former President Henry Clay, who wishes to restore the National Bank once again, and opposes expansionism out of fear for the stability of the Republic. While Clay does ultimately win, the outgoing Democratic Congress finally forces President Van Buren to ratify a treaty annexing Texas shortly before he leaves office. Clay's attempts to avoid escalating tensions with Mexico is thwarted by the war hawks in Congress, and when John C. Fremont leads the Bear Flag Revolt against Mexico, Congressional leaders force him to intervene. While the Mexican Cession is still acquired by America, Clay's administration stringently sets rules regarding the admission of these new territories as states, in an attempt to preclude any increase in tensions surrounding their admissions as states. This policy becomes known as the Clay Doctrine, and it does much to preempt tensions for the rest of his term in office. The Election of 1848: Following his successful term as President, Clay chooses to retire, knowing his age is quickly catching up with him. While Senator Lewis Cass of Michigan is chosen as the Democratic candidate for President, General Zachary Taylor is chosen by the Whigs. Despite Clay's popularity, Taylor fails to capitalize, and Lewis Cass is elected President. The Election of 1852: After one term, Cass declines to run for re-election, ending his term being relatively unpopular. Despite this, Franklin Pierce still leads the Democrats to an easy victory over General Winfield Scott and the Whigs, in part due to the Free Soil Party stealing away Whig voters in the North. Following this election, the Whigs would collapse as a national force, having lost two elections in a row to Democratic candidates they should've beaten. The Free Soil Party would take on many former Whigs to form the Republican Party after this election. The Election of 1856: Despite the deep unpopularity of President Pierce's administration, due to its part in Bleeding Kansas, the Democrats manage to pull one last electoral victory in 1856 over John C. Fremont and the Republicans, and Millard Fillmore's American Party. However, Buchanan's failure to address many ongoing issues in America would lead to most of the Democrats' opposition uniting behind the Republican ticket in 1860, even as unity in the Democratic Party came crumbling apart. The Election of 1860: The Election of 1860 would see a deeply divided America split in two, as Republican candidate Abraham Lincoln would win every free state except California, and, without receiving a single vote in any of the states of the deep south, win the election. Following his victory, in December 1860, South Carolina would secede, leading America on the path to a bloody Civil War.
  20. The Election of 1824 In what Jackson's supporters would call "The Second Corrupt Bargain," Henry Clay gathers enough support in the House of Representatives to make John Quincy Adams President, and for his efforts is awarded the position of Secretary of State. President Randolph saw little to no support, and retired from politics. The Election of 1828: Following his defeat in 1824, Jackson never really stopped campaigning, and with his supporters rendered Adams' term more of a waste than anything. Unsurprisingly, this vigor translated into a victory for Jackson, though perhaps not as conclusively as he might've wanted. Meanwhile, the electoral college delegates from Delaware would fail to arrive in time to vote, resulting in Delaware's electoral college support going to no one. The Election of 1832: The Election of 1832 turned into a massive debate regarding the Second Bank of the United States. On one end, President Jackson sought to destroy the bank, and use many state banks to replace it, while Henry Clay and the National Republicans sought to maintain the National Bank as a stabilizing economic force. By the end of the election, Clay had won handily, by a large popular margin. Jackson, on the other hand, swore vengeance and that he would return in 1836. The Election of 1836: Jackson had once again rallied a strong support base with which to challenge the incumbent President, and Clay, mourning the loss of his daughter, failed to campaign as vigorously as he had in 1832. In the end, the difference in energy between Jackson and Clay had turned public support towards the former President, who won a second term by a greater margin than Clay had beat him by in 1832. The Election of 1840: In a close election, President Jackson's VP Marin Van Buren beats out General William Henry Harrison, in no small part due to the spoiling effect of James Birney's Liberty Party in the Northeast stealing away Whig voters. During his term, Van Buren would be pressured to begin a slow and much-argued process to annex Texas, which he attempted to delay as much as possible.
  21. I didn't realize how controversial Snyder and Randolph would be when I ran through the elections. I did a cursory look-up on them, just to see who they were historically, but I certainly wasn't expecting such interesting candidates make their way into office.
  22. The Election of 1804: Following the Election of 1800, the 12th Amendment was passed redefining how elections were handled. Under this new system, each party put forth a Presidential and a Vice Presidential ticket, their electoral votes being entirely separated to avoid another electoral tie situation. Following the conclusion of Jefferson's second term, Secretary of State James Madison ran for and won a term of his own. The Election of 1808: Madison's first term was presumably a controversial one, and resulted in large sections of the Democratic-Republicans contesting Madison's election. Along with former Vice President John Adams representing a resurgent Federalist Party, the entire election was once again thrown into the House. Due to the status of the House's state delegations, while the D-R held the majority of state delegations, George Clinton's supporters refused to elect Madison, and Madison's supporters refused to elect Clinton. The deadlock was broken when Clinton offered Adams the Presidency, in exchange for becoming Adams' Secretary of State. Adams would reluctantly agree, and Madison seemed doomed to a singular term, with the final vote in the House being 9 delegations for Adams (7 Federalist-controlled, 2 Clinton-Controlled), and 8 for Madison. Yeah, this election was weird. The Election of 1812: After a term in office, Adams was effectively booted from the Federalists when his administration inched America towards war with Britain, on George Clinton's insistence. Madison, calling for revenge against Clinton's betrayal, and riding the wave of the war hawks, easily won against Former Senator Rufus King. The Election of 1816: Following the end of the War of 1812, the Republicans easily coasted to victory under the leadership of Governor Simon Snyder, who would unfortunately pass away while in office in 1819. His Vice President, John Randolph, would succeed him. The Election of 1820: Perhaps because of the sympathy attached to the now passed President Snyder, his successor, John Randolph, easily won nomination and election to a term of his own. With the Federalists in gradual decline, the best effort they managed to pull through is preventing the Massachusetts delegation from awarding their votes to President Randolph.
  23. Old online multiplayer game for kids: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_Penguin Was really big when I was younger.
  24. Good chance for me to introduce myself. Mine is based off my name, for the most part. When I was much younger, and wanted to join Club Penguin, I was told to come up with a username that "wasn't my own name." That got me to thinking, and I thought I was super clever when I swapped the last two letters of my name and affixed a "u" to my name. At least no one else ever seems to use it, so it's got that going for it.
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