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About Alxeu

  • Birthday July 28

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  1. My ideal reform would be an end to the electoral college, establishment of instant-runoff for all Senate and Presidential Elections, with the House constituted of a proportional representation of each state's vote. That'd probably be the fairest you could make the entire system, as that's the most devolution of electoral power away from the parties and to the people, and the less power the two political parties have, the better.
  2. Alxeu

    1 day to go

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/323210/voters-enthusiastic-anxious-2020-campaign-ends.aspx Interesting polling from Gallup seems to indicate an enthusiasm gap... in favor of the Democrats. Other metrics there are interesting, 42% of Republicans polled intended to vote today, while only 24% of Democrats polled intended to do so. The majority of both groups either intended to vote prior to Election Day, or had already voted when polled between mid-October and late-October. There's ups and downs for both sides in this polling, imo. Enthusiasm gap helps the Dems, but the voting stats might favor the Republicans, in light of Democrat fears over the early voting process.
  3. Alxeu

    1 day to go

    I don't have much to say on points 1 and 2, as I won't contest the factual nature of his primary results, and I'm uncertain on the statistics for 2, but on 3, incumbency is not always an advantage. 1992 is a good example, as well as countless senatorial and house elections since. If the incumbent is unpopular, that tends to do more harm than any amount of boost gained from incumbency. Say what you will about his popularity with his base, but for basically the entirety of his presidency, the majority of the American people have been opposed to Trump.
  4. Alxeu

    1 day to go

    That's what my general suspicion is, as well. There certainly seems to be more enthusiasm and desire to beat Trump this time around, whereas I haven't seen anything indicating Trump's grown his support significantly since 2016. I also still believe the Democrats will find a way to lose the election, despite this.
  5. Alxeu

    1 day to go

    I'd peg a more conservative 60-40 for Trump as the maximum on Election Day, for reasons I mentioned above. If early voting margins aren't as strong as the Democrats like, it's probably because Republicans are voting early, as well. Granted, I haven't actually seen the early voting results and interpreted them for myself. If it's just that not as many people are turning out to early vote as expected (which seems unlikely, imo), then there'd actually be a problem for the Dems.
  6. Alxeu

    1 day to go

    Hard to say if that's because Biden's supporters have low enthusiasm, or if Trump supporters are hopping on the early voting train, too. If we take 2016's results, and translate a scenario where 100% of Democrats vote early, and the remaining share of the early vote is Republicans, then the maximum possible favorability of the early voting results is roughly 65% Democrat, 35% Republican. Since such a scenario is the hypothetical maximum, it stands to reason that it would be somewhat less. We can't predict the results of an election based purely off of early voting results, after all. There'd still be a large chunk of people who were uncounted in the result. Again, assuming 2016 numbers, 136.6 million Americans voted. That means that, at minimum, we're looking at another 36.6 million people, at least, and if there's one thing I can assume you'd agree with, is that turnout will be higher than in 2016. I'm hesitant to trust any type of prior knowledge from previous elections, simply due to the pandemic, which has already resulted in a historic spike in early voting results, which has almost certainly skewed the results away from their usual percentages. As a side note, voted absentee a couple weeks ago, my first Presidential Election, but not my first election, as I voted in the 2018 midterms, previously.
  7. Alxeu

    1 day to go

    I'm sure he'd have had a more normal campaign had COVID-19 not happened. Regardless of the outcome, I'm taking the comparisons of the campaign strategies with a grain of salt: Biden supporters presumably support his limited rallies, whereas Trump supporters presumably support him holding rallies. Biden would stand to lose from following Trump's lead, Trump would stand to lose from following Biden's lead.
  8. In regards to the last one, while I have wide-reaching ideas of how to make the country a better place, I doubt my ability to translate such ideas into legalese free of loopholes, and I therefore feel that I could only make things worse by attempting.
  9. Picked Southern Democrat who supported the bill because that's the region of the country I'm from. I'd probably be a Republican, in actuality, though, but the hypothetical Southern Republican in favor doesn't exist.
  10. A few minutes ago, a fly landed on Pence's head and hung around in his hair. Very distracting, and hilarious, imo.
  11. My home state. Was always one of the least reliably blue states in the South, and was among those which flipped red first, though it also voted Democrat more recently than many Southern states. Had Gore carried Tennessee, Florida would've been irrelevant.
  12. There's an interesting CGP Grey video on this topic. He actually notes that many tribal reservations prefer the term American Indian (or just Indian), as opposed to Native American. This is because many tribes feel that Native American is overinclusive and binds together all indigenous groups of North and South America, whereas American Indian/Indian is more directly appropriate for tribes residing within the lands of the United States.
  13. A two-round popular vote election like in France for the Presidency. Proportional allocation of House of Representatives seats. Expanding the size of the House/uncapping it, altogether.
  14. I'm not entirely convinced that Puerto Rico would be a 100% Democratic pickup. The leading pro-statehood party has elected members that caucus with both the Republicans and the Democrats. Since I'm also not entirely convinced local Puerto Rican parties would be subsumed into mainstream US political parties for some time, I think it's rather likely that Puerto Rico will end up getting closer to 50/50 in Congress, potentially, depending on where the PNP (New Progressive Party) candidates end up falling in the political spectrum, and whether they would lose anywhere to the opposition parties, there. I think a re-branding of the message for Puerto Rican statehood like that, as a new possible swing-state, might increase the odds that it gains statehood in the near future, significantly. I'm, of course, in favor of Puerto Rican statehood if they want it, and believe in a D.C. solution where they at least get a voting seat in the House of Representatives, if nothing else (Out of all the options presented, however, I'd prefer they receive statehood).
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