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Berg2036

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Posts posted by Berg2036

  1. Yes the Biden campaign has a path to 270 if they lose Pennsylvania and Florida but that means running the table in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona while holding MN, MI, and WI. Which could really happen. 

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  2. First off I do believe that President Trump will be re elected and my first reason as to why I believe that is many many people have already voted and those people who did are more likely than not Democratic voters. If someone is still undecided as of today I believe they will break for Trump because clearly they are not phased by him and support his policies. I also think that a lot more people are turning out to vote that have not voted before and those people are very hard for pollsters to model and poll. I do also believe that there are many in at least my county split ticket voters are turning out more than I expected where they vote trump but democratic down the rest of the ticket. My bellwether State is you guessed it MINNESOTA. my thinking as to why it is the bellwether because all votes must be in by 8pm to vote and we need to count them before we go home tonight. It also has a close Senate race that will determine how the Republican Senate candidates are doing nation if Jason Lewis can knock off Tina Smith who is not very popular and did not really work the state like Amy Klobuchar would and does. It also hosts Competitive house seats. MN - 8 which is the old Democratic base voters pro union workers and miners has Pete Stauber Running for Reelection to possibly become the first Republican in that district since the 1940s to win. It also has the very last true Blue Dog Democrat in Collin Peterson. Collin Peterson has been in Congress since 1991 and was reelected in 2016 by running some 30+ points ahead of Hillary Clinton and the Republicans have a very strong candidate in Michelle Fischbach who is a former State Senate President and Lieutenant  Governor of Minnesota who has fundraised a large amount and is poised to beat him. It also has the suburban districts that Republicans used to dominate that left the party in 2018, MN - 3 and MN - 2 which are two very different but very similar. in MN - 3 the incumbent is Dean Philips heir to the Phillip's distillery company and is the 5th richest member of congress who beat Erik Paulson who was a long time Rep in 2018. This time around the Republicans are not invest nearly any money but the Republican Candidate has run a pretty good race and that is Kendall Qualls and former vet, I know this district very well because I lived in it my whole life. MN - 2 is very strange this time around. The former congressman Jason Lewis won in 2016 then lost in 2018 and is now running for senate. The Incumbent Rep is Angie Craig a former medical executive who is running for the third time but second term. Her opponent is Tyler Kristner which is a former marine and really has been pushing his theme of 'Send in the Marine" and has really worked hard and raised a sizeable amount, but three weeks ago the race was thrown into chaos when Adam Weeks the Legalize Marijuana candidate unexpectedly died and according the Minnesota state law the election was to be postponed because in Minnesota both Legalize marijuana party's are considered major party's thus triggering the delay. A judge ruled that the election was back on and Tyler Kristner is appealing because it directly goes against the law intended to happen. 

    Screenshot 2020-11-01 133121.jpg

    Senate Map.jpg

    US House.jpg

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  3. I would say that of the independents and of what I've been seeing is a hard move to the trump vote the last 6 days of the campaign here in Minnesota. While I don't live in the largest county it is a sizeable population that used to be very old school democratic but not any more. My thinking is he will lose a bit of ground in the suburbs gain ground in Urban Minneapolis and expand the margins in out state Minnesota or as our very liberal terrible governor called it the land of rocks and cows. 

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  4. Minnesota mostly because of the "blue wall" states its the only one that has been counting and I have been working in my county elections office and let me tell you theres a very good chance of an upset if you solely believe the polls. 

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  5. We will have a very good idea on whos ahead in FL, NC, and MN on election night because they have been able to count ballots. Thirsdays Minnesota extentsion to accept absentee or mail in ballots which there is a big difference in this state was overturned so we have to have your ballot by 8 pm election night. Horrible for all us counting because at least where I work we were okay with being able to count wednesday till the following tuesday which not we have to get all our absentee and mail in ballots(15 ish thousand) counted by election night. If Trump matches '16 in percent then its a toss up if Trump wins in MN its game over for Biden because if Biden doesnt carry MN then I can not see how Biden will run the table in MI, PA, or WI. I also think controll of the Senate will be known election night.

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  6. All the signs warn of a drop off in support for joe biden amoung minorities. Im by no means saying trump is going to win those groups just that trump will do much better than people expected. Another thing is the white suburbanites who may be uncomfortable with his rhetoric i think many will still cast a vote for him at least in MN due to his focus on Law and Order which i could be wrong but I think that he will do just as good if not better than '16 with that group. I think MN is a bellweather this year because we have been counting ballots since last Tuesday and yesterday the extension to accept ballots for 7 days after was over turned. So if Trump does aswell or wins this state compared to'16 its the ball game because there is no way that Minnesota will turn Red but MI, WI, and PA will vote Biden I just would have a very tough time seeing and believing that. 

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  7. @PoliticalPundit I think you are defiantly on to something with the primary vote totals compared to other incumbent presidents because why would someone bother to go vote in an uncompetitive primary and take time in the spring or early summer to vote. I also think that crowds do matter because those crowds get there very early and wait all day to see him which means that that person who went there will walk across glass to vote for him, I sure know I will, with that being said I also think that no college kids or a large group of them being not on campus will also affect turnout in ways that people are not expecting. In Minnesota where I live and am attending school there are barely a thousand kids on campus versus normally 5500 to 6000 so that being said it will certainly tip the local elections here in my opinion because normally that is a very left voting bloc. In my group of friends Trump has gained 7 votes this year compared to last when they all voted for Hillary. Which 7 is not a lot but it could show a trend that is being missed. Minnesota will go Red and the Republican's will flip the Senate seat. 

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  8. 10 hours ago, CPE said:

    2020USPresientialElectionPrediction.thumb.PNG.5af299bc52a839fb2f49ffac1b17cf3e.PNG

    Going to be ballsy and give Minnesota to Trump.  You guys can roast me if I'm wrong after the election.  Only true tossup for me was Pennsylvania, I think it really is 50/50 at this point and that the margin will be nail-bitingly close.  Nevada and New Hampshire will be close for Trump, but not enough.

    Bonus : here is my prediction for the senate as well.

    2020USSenateElectionPrediction.thumb.PNG.df4ee89ef8f3f8b3ebed434a0bfc4eae.PNG

    I do think Minnesota will go red. Ive been saying it for months. Also new poll today by KSTP/SURVEYUSA that has Tina Smith Incumbant senator up by 1 point over Jason Lewis no republican has polled so close to winning since TPaw(Tim Pawlenty) 2006 I believe?

     

  9. 2 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

    Somehow I didn't see this post before I made my prediction.

    Here's mine: (basically @Edouard's but I have Maine's conservative district going red)

     electionprediction.thumb.png.7f35461fa84ff9101cc363c7e1eeb351.png

    I like that map I think its very close to how it will end up being. One thing that I would be most surprised if Biden pulls off a victory in Arizona. I think in regards to earlier posts about North Carolina from my family and the info I've gotten from there Tillis is in my opinion has the best chance of the republican state wide candidates because the Cunningham scandal is "bigish" because of the connections with the military and North Carolina is a very big Military state with lots of vets and bases there. I'm going to do one after the debate tonight because all my classes also have assignments for it so I just want to wait until how the 3rd debate falls out.

  10. They are protected by section 230 of the communication decency act. Section 230 says that "No provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as the publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider" (47 U.S.C. § 230). In other words, online intermediaries that host or republish speech are protected against a range of laws that might otherwise be used to hold them legally responsible for what others say and do. "https://www.eff.org/issues/cda230"  So they have protections for being a platform of free speech but when they begin to censor that they could lose their protections under section 230 is what I've been getting from all the news report of what Senate Republicans want to change because when they start censoring viewpoints and news stories they no longer become just platforms where people can share ideas and news and opinions that they should but it almost at least on the surface that they are targeting conservatives for viewpoints. 

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  11. I think voting is the most important process in our nation and the fact that an ID is not required is absurd. My god to pick up orders from taco bell I have to show my ID but not for voting. I answered that all of the responses were suppression but both parties do it to each other in terms of gerrymandering. It is very easy and simple to get a state ID card. It is sad to see the left demonize something very sensible. Even Iraq has a form of voter ID.

  12. 10 hours ago, vcczar said:

    If it’s clear Trump rigged the election, and it seemed most sane and reasonable people believe so as well, and the government isn’t recounting it rejecting Trump, then I’d like join whatever movement forms in DC. 
     

    In the scenario I president, Biden conceding is almost the worst part. I could see him doing that even when he should challenge the results, mainly because he’d want to prevent violence. 
     

    I don’t think there will be a Civil War. This generally occurs when you have a unified geographical area opposed to another unified geographical area.  Basically, the way our politics works, we’d have like 50 different civil wars. It would actually resemble the French Wars of religion. The Huguenots were large in cities and the Catholics were large elsewhere in France (this is pre-urbanization). Democrats would be Huguenots in this example. 

    Im just genuinly curious how he rigged the election? 

  13. @Patine wow I actually agree with you for once. the comment is quite inline with what he said in 2016......... not the exact same but same premise. We all know that he is just saying this to get all the left riled up and talk about it. Its so rediculous that someone would ever ask that horrible question which is not even fair. But nothing is ever fair I quess.

  14. I dont think MN is so safe a democrat states as you all think. Like ive said ive lived here all my life and the amount of money pouring into this state not just for President but also the Senate. There are three different outside group ads hammering Tina Smith while I havent seen a single Pro Tina ad either from outside groups or her campaign. The riots really moved the state to the right and now with our Governor doing the extreme policies regarding covid and forcing businesses to pay their property taxes in full before being able to reopen after the riots and the pandemic. I think Trump has a 60% chance to win this state. The old democratic counties out state have so firmely flipped and the amount of people upset about the response to the riots have really pushed the state to the right. 

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