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Everything posted by servo75

  1. https://www.270towin.com/map-images/DWOzg
  2. I actually voted for very few items here. As a libertarian, I believe government force is an absolute last resort. They should not (and CAN NOT really) enforce mask wearing especially on a Federal level, nor should they forcibly open businesses. As far as stimulus checks, money should be given to people who are out of work through no fault of their own strictly due to Covid related closures. (A pure libertarian probably shouldn't even favor that) The problem I continue to have is that a question like that, much like the stimulus packages themselves, are overbroad. I have no problem in th
  3. Good for you, but I'm afraid the major media doesn't see things in the same enlightened way that you seem to. The children in cages thing happened entirely under Obama, but they act like it was a Trump invention. Same with the "pussy" stuff. Clinton and Trump both have sexually promiscuous pasts. But Trump did NOT "brag about sexual assault." That is some of the biggest mis-quoting that I've seen against the President. What he was clearly saying was a sad but true fact, that when you're famous, women will let you get away with anything, FOR EXAMPLE you could (in theory) "grab them by the pussy
  4. Yes. I might even think of supporting him if we weren't 180 degrees apart economically. What you say about Sanders's grass roots success I believe is absolutely on the mark. He and Trump are the only ones who get it, and up until a couple of months ago when Trump took that dip in the polls, I was far more concerned about 2024 and 2028 than 2020. Because although the Republican bench is deeper with more young energetic people in the wings, I haven't really seen ANY young Republican who would a) be a true conservative and/or continue Trump's policies and b) be electable. My top choices for 2024
  5. Oh, loving the new avatar. No hypotheses. The normal ups and downs of polling. Populations can stay absolutely the same and sampling polls will still differ across a 5-8% range. The only thing that's really reliable are tracking polls following the same exact poll over long periods of time. Polls are nothing more than snapshots, and the problem is that, unlike other statistical sampling, polls aren't measuring what the population is. If you want to know how high the average tree in a forest is, you sample a group of trees and measure their heights, and if it's a representative sample you can g
  6. Yeah Bernie ain't gonna be nobody's VP If I were a Democrat I'd be extremely worried that the most engaging person in our party is a 78 year old Socialist.
  7. @Dallas @admin_270 Really, the questions in these surveys can use some less slanted language. I guarantee you that if Trump HAD thrown out that first pitch he'd be attacked for trying to infect the team and stadium. It's real simple - he declined to do so because of Covid. That's it. The choices in that question are presumptuous, slanted, and quite laughable. Can we get some polls with questions other than "Rate President Trump on a scale of F- to D?" By the way, Biden's approval ratings have been hardly better than Trump's. On RCP the only poll showing above 50% was, ironically, Fo
  8. Possibly you could be right. Obviously no one can no for sure. However, my reasoning is that the Democrats who voted for Trump in those states (and no doubt his victory came from "Reagan Democrats") tend to be blue collar workers, not progressives. And no I don't think Kaine was a good choice. The best choice she could have made was Julian Castro. Kaine was practically an unknown, really analogous to John McCain picking Sarah Palin - someone I like but was not ready for prime time. Castro might bring out a working class vote and would give her a fighting chance in AZ or TX.
  9. I'm familiar with that case. I'd like to see a state try that again and challenge it to be overturned, because I don't think it can stand constitutional muster. Unfortunately though, the states that need this system the most tend to be the states least likely to pass it - the ones where Democrat majority is concentrated in a tiny area of the state. In the U.S. as a whole, this is even more profound. By land area, 85% of the nation voted for Trump. The reason as I said why Hillary won the popular vote was by running up the score in very densely urban areas. Now, I find great fault with the G
  10. This talk of Biden being the nominee (which some think is no done deal) makes me hope Biden loses
  11. I'd have to disagree. First of all BECAUSE she's a "progressive darling" (more on that later). I don't think that Warren can possibly appeal to the midwestern and rust belt voters. She's even worse than Hillary in that respect. She comes across as out of touch. And it's never a good idea to choose a Veep that is a carbon copy of yourself. Hillary and Warren are both old white women, both from the Northeast and can come off as elitist. Whereas Trump picked a person that at least personality wise was the antithesis of himself - true conservative, calm, deferring and self-deprecating demeanor, an
  12. In short, to prevent the election from being decided by only people living in large metropolitan areas. The Founders made this a country made up of states, not a country divided into states. State sovereignty is very important, and the interests of all areas of the country have to be taken into account. We see this in my state of Washington. The eastern 2/3 of the state where I live is rural and conservative, the southwest and Olympic Peninsula is moderate. But King County and Seattle have a third of the state's population which means that the election is decided in the big cities. Meanwhile t
  13. You don't get out a whole lot, do you?
  14. Well there's nothing Libertarian about the Libertarian Party either. They're basically Democrat Lite these days, they've strayed so far from any principles they used to have. So I don't know what your point is. The other side can dish it out, it seems, but they can't take it.
  15. @Reagan04 calls out a lot of things, most of them make no sense. He himself has called Donald Trump the most vile, horrible, libelous names without the slightest backing or evidence and now this "Republican" is so offended by making fun of one Democrat's name. That's why I blocked him. I often wonder what side he's really on.
  16. Because it sounds like "boot-i-judge." I'm done talking about this.
  17. It's not homophobic. His name is hard to pronounce. It's something we used to call a "joke." There's also nothing inherently homosexual about the term. I heard heterosexual men use the term all the time in the 90s!!! Secondly, Lord knows Donald Trump and other Republicans have been called far FAR worse on this very board. I've seen the most vile disgusting and libelous names called our President. He's been called a racist, a homophobe, a criminal, and all but a Nazi with absolutely no evidence or backing. But you joke about the name of a Democrat who happens to be homosexual and it's somehow h
  18. Clinton/Warren = worse outcomes, no way Warren would have brought out Midwestern voters. As for Biden's VP choice, I just tossed a 7-sided coin on this one and came up with Harris. Because after all, if he doesn't nominate a woman "of color" that will be immediately prove him a racist and sexist, as if his support of the crime bill and hair-sniffing escapades didn't already show that. I have to put a big asterisk by my choices. If the election is held TODAY, yes Biden would probably win. But the fact is that it isn't. Election campaigns are designed with the expectation that the election
  19. I do still have some issues preventing myself from taking my game to the next level @admin_270 @Zenobiyl Do specific issues really matter? The insights I get seem random. It's always experience and integrity at top. If one was to enter a campaign and really focus on something like tax rates or immigration or health care, these are rarely ever top issues. How to pick best issues to barnstorm, rally, or advertise. Or which best to use against opponents? What's more important, the "High/Low" or the +- numbers? How are +/- related to High/Low? Is a "very high" issue with -1 better tha
  20. servo75

    General Tips

    Does that mean we're getting head-to-head play?
  21. servo75

    General Tips

    Thanks! I will give this a try!
  22. Well every Presidential candidate has "scandals." As for debate performance, if he were going against anyone other than a doddering non-compus-mentus empty suit with no principles and the inability to finish a coherent sentence I'd be concerned. Let's see what happens when he has to get out of his basement controlled environment and ad lib.
  23. Trump certainly has problems with favorability right now. I still think the election is his to lose, but that's still no guarantee. I think polls are often misleading and easily skewed to suppress the Trump vote BUT cannot be dismissed entirely, so I pay more attention to the trends within individual polls than simple averages. I answered Biden would win now but Trump in November because I believe Trump is using the strategy of holding back and then hitting the attack button when it's too late to switch out Biden for someone else, which I think there is at least a 25% chance that the Dems will
  24. "Anyone who's willing to stand next to me to fight the progressive left I will be in that bunker. And if you're not in that bunker because you're not satisfied with this candidate, more than shame on you, you're on the other side!" - Andrew Breitbart, CPAC 2012
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