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servo75

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Everything posted by servo75

  1. Not really? Are you saying I didn't really mean what I said? My original point was agreement with @Conservative Elector 2 regarding the masks. I may have incorrectly referred to the Franklin quote, but that doesn't change my original point.
  2. Perhaps I mis-quoted Dr. Franklin. But my original point still stands.
  3. @admin_270 well that ship certainly sailed a while ago, hasn't it?
  4. This whole gender nonsense thing has become a parody of itself. I seem to remember a day when people with penises used one bathroom and those with vaginas used a different one, and there was no confusion and everyone "felt safe". We live in upside-down bizarro society.
  5. servo75

    Apology

    Thank you for your input. a) It's not just this thread. b) This last post wasn't even addressed to you. Plus I don't really care what you think on this matter, nor did I ask your opinion. Thanks again.
  6. Bravo! Is it about time for the Ben Franklin quote about giving up freedom for a little security?
  7. servo75

    Apology

    Well.... that went about as well as a fart in an elevator, didn't it? I tried to be magnanimous and take the high road, but some people just have so much TDS they can't handle even that. They have been permanently placed on my ignore list, so hopefully that will make this a more pleasant place. @admin_270, several times I have taken hiatuses from this board to clear my mind and because it was causing me too much stress. But then I realized, "Why should I leave?" We need some tighter control over these boards in terms of standards of human decency. I argue very hard because I s
  8. servo75

    Apology

    I'm not "affiliated" with him. I have explained this over and over again. Look at my profile for Pete's sake. He's given us some things, and not others. Shades of gray in everything. Overall I'd give him a B. Again that wasn't even the point of my post. I do this old-fashioned thing that most American voters do. They look at a candidate or a President, evaluate the pros and cons, do their own research and form independent opinions. I am not a MAGA person nor am I a Trump hater. Is that POSSIBLE??In this polarized society is it even humanly possible to talk about our President without thinking
  9. servo75

    Apology

    Feeling's mutual. You'd actually be doing me a favor. I don't think I deserved this type of outburst and when I said, "arguing me instead of arguing my points" you have exhibited the epitomy of such. That's the lazy way out - argue the person instead of the argument. Sure I could have been off-topic at this point but I don't think I deserved anywhere near the amount of ire I got from you.
  10. Well, how can I believe (or not believe) their data without seeing it? Or at least their methodologies. (Incidentally, I have a graduate degree in Statistics so I know what I'm talking about when it comes to polling and simulations). I'm just looking for where they get the numbers from. Yes, I get that their polling numbers are on their website. I won't go into again how unreliable polling can be, so at best it's a methodology built on stilts. But I digress... #1 How does one translate a Biden +3 poll average into a probability? Is there some regression modeling going on? Yes I get it, t
  11. But of course both have committed a grievous sin that will instantly disqualify them from the Dem VP slot - they're white. But actually Warren is 1/1024th a woman of color... you can tell from her high cheek bones . Neither is charismatic or likeable. Warren comes off as the scolding old schoolmarm. She doesn't excite any other wing. Come to think of it, the Democrat Party only has one wing.
  12. True. I guess I felt obligated to give her at least +1
  13. Seems vague to me. Any time the researcher or someone running a simulation won't share their methodology, it's reason to be suspect. I'd like to see this model and what assumptions it's making. If it's based mostly on polling, we already know that's suspect at best. Besides, poll data is one thing. The key is, how do they translate polling data into probabilities? In their website programming, there has to be some sort of base probability or randomized formula being used to make each state's prediction. I'd like to know what that is, and when I clicked on the link above, I got a blank
  14. Assuming the pick is Kamala Harris: VP Energizes another Wing of Party: No VP Charismatic: No VP Likable: No VP Experienced: Yes VP has Moral Authority: No VP from Strategic State: No Biden/Harris total 4.
  15. I would have said Romney and Ryan had moral authority in 2012, and that was part of the problem. Romney was too much of a "nice guy" to go after Obama effectively and basically choked on the election. R Ryan gave lip service to the Tea Party, even touting Ayn Rand, but like 90% of Congressional Republicans melted down the moment he got to Washington. He was a worse Speaker than Pelosi, if such a thing is possible. Pelosi at least tries to advance her party's agenda.
  16. servo75

    Apology

    So I think there may have been some mis-understanding here. In my opinion, I could be mistaken, but I thought you were responding not to my arguments, but to the arguments that you thought I was making. I do realize I can tend to ramble and make a long post on a short topic, so let me see if I can sum up my post more briefly: The Republican Party, Trump notwithstanding, is in need of reform. They have not stayed true to their principles. One example is the betrayal of the Tea Party class, people like Paul Ryan who campaign on conservative principles, even touting Ayn Rand, and then they get
  17. Curious, when will the "beta" become the real thing?
  18. That immediately raises red flags. I'd like to know what their methodology is. When they run a simulation, it has to be based on which candidate has which probability of winning each state. With a sample size this large I have to assume their base probabilities are about equal to the percentage that you're experiencing. Still, where did THOSE probabilities come from? I call bullshit on that. Unless they're conducting a poll per day in each state this can only be subjective. At best, they have to have some formula for translating polling averages (which are questionable to begin with) to probab
  19. Yeah I don't know where they're getting their "seed" probabilities from but I'm not buying this. NV and MI were close states on either end in 2016. You can say Florida and Wisconsin are toss-ups but 66-76%? I would like to know what their methodology for this simulation is. They say they run 1,000 simulations per day. Okay fine but even those simulations have to be based on something. I know they're not conducting 1,000 polls per day, so this would be subjective at best. Though the simulations I ran didn't have anywhere near that big a victory for Trump either. To have such a wide range of out
  20. servo75

    Apology

    "some sources"? Really...
  21. servo75

    Apology

    First, I mentioned nothing about systemic racism. Again, please stop telling me I'm saying things that I'm not saying. What I mean by "your way" has nothing to do with that, and I mean you as in the colloquial sense. None of this post was directed at you personally. I mean that when people complain about Trump's personality, his brashness, his in-your-face bully pulpit style, I'm saying the old genteel Marquess-of-Queensbury Republican Party has been ineffective at best. I'm not going to argue whether or not Trump is the solution to that, but really, what has the Republican Party done to comba
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