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Everything posted by vcczar

  1. Depends if the voters give Biden credit for "ending" COVID or not and whether or not the removal of the crisis coincides with a strengthening economy. What could happen is this: Things look back at Midterms--GOP makes gains. Things continue to look bad until about early 2024, but then things start greatly improving. By the time the election comes around, enough voters might not want to switch administrations when the economy is finally going up again for the first time in years. Things definitely look bad for Democrats now, but they might have an opportunity or gain some good fortune.
  2. Oddly, true. Biden is the most establishment president we’ve had since the first Bush. Trump is now the establishment of the GOP that he recreated. Cassidy, Hogan, Kasich, Romney, etc (the “good ones”) are now the outsiders.
  3. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/577140-cassidy-says-he-wont-vote-for-trump-if-he-runs-in-2024
  4. Yeah, I think you're right. I was initially glad they banned him, but I admit that was more of an emotional thing. After a couple of days, I opposed the banning, mainly because I'd rather Trump shoot himself in the foot. However, he was banned and still lost, so who knows if Twitter helped in that or if Biden would have won by a larger margin with Trump on Twitter.
  5. Yeah, DC is one of the fastest growing areas and it's growing into Virginia. The state is turning into Maryland, which means it could get a Republican governor, but they'd have to be a lot more like Larry Hogan. Ohio is kind of a GOP analogy. It's a former tossup that's been getting deeper red. States that lose or slow in population tend to be more conservative, while faster growing states tend to be more liberal. My assumption is that states "in decline" get nostalgic of their golden days. Nostalgia is more of a conservative appeal. Faster growing states often gain more immigrants, more people just out of college (so increase in college educated), growing cities need infrastructure, welfare, etc. These things appeal more to liberals.
  6. I agree with this part. I wouldn't want a Democratic version of Trump either. So Twitter might be helping him by banning him.
  7. That's because we are becoming more and more focused on human rights and the environment. It's also probably because more and more presidents and candidates seem to lack integrity. Carter was also relatively non-interventionist compared to all other Cold War presidents, and we are in a period where people want to be more non-interventionist. Carter comes off as ahead of his time. This is my rationale as to why he is rising.
  8. Just some quick thoughts that I had on how Democrats could turn it around: 1. Biden and Democrats need to keep positive and calm over COVID policy and economic reports. Things like, "We got this" and "Everything is going according to plan," and "You'll see improvement before midterms. Just you see." Things like that will at least give the allusion that they got this under control. COVID is the key thing keeping Biden's approval low now that Afghanistan has kind of faded off. 2. Biden needs to score a blunder-free foreign policy success before early voting Midterms. China is the big newsmaker. Score some sort of major deal with them. Biden needs to have this in the works yesterday and I hope he does. 3. Biden and the Democratic-controlled Congress must pass their agenda before Midterms. Infrastructure must pass. Financial assistance for the pandemic must pass. Both are popular. Make it known that Trump would not prioritize these. 4. Democrats must win the VA Gov election to stifle any momentum for Republicans. Send all the superstars to VA, especially the VA Beach area which is independent heavy. 5. Consistently make it about Trump. Consistently bring up the Jan 6th Insurrection. 6. Provoke Trump into announcing a run for the presidency before midterms so as to make the midterms about Trump and not Biden's approval. A good way to provoke Trump is to consistently call him a coward or a waffler because he hasn't announced yet. Antagonize the hell out of him. Compare him to a teenage girl. "You know, Donald? The fat one-term president that tried to launch a coup? Yeah, him. He's all girl." Provoking Trump will also likely mean DeSantis and others won't run. We then know who Biden will face and it will be someone with more baggage than Biden. 7. Biden needs to announce an exciting post-midterm agenda. Things that matter to his base, to Progressives, and to independents. Don't worry about satisfying people that are going to vote Trump regardless. 8. Democrats should also focus on flooding Florida with Democratic star power. If DeSantis loses in Florida (will be tough to beat him), then he likely won't run for president, regardless if Trump runs or not. Focus #2 should be Texas. Abbott is more unpopular than Trump or Biden. 9. Biden needs more of a social media presence. Perhaps three FaceTime videos (or something like that) a week. In these, he should seem confident, empathetic, hopeful, nice, and in charge. 10. Pro-Biden or Anti-Trump political opinion writers need to flood the news sources with articles and headlines that show where and how things are improving under Biden. Let the candidates point blame at Republicans. Let the news show that Biden's administration is doing its job. Had some other ideas, but thought 10 was enough. I'm curious as to what you think, specifically, would increase Democrat odds in 2022 and in 2024.
  9. Nothing too informative here. And it’s to be expected so long as the pandemic is going on. A lot of what is happening to Biden was also affecting Trump as they were both dealing with the pandemic. One reason Biden’s average approval is still better than Trump’s average approval is probably due to Biden’s desire to do the things people want: infrastructure and more financial assistance. Two things you comment on that are brought up in the article as things voters want. Neither would likely be a priority for Trump. I think Biden and Democrats will likely be doomed if the pandemic continues through midterms. The analogy is Carter losing in 1980 because he couldn’t resolve the issues given to him from the Nixon/Ford presidencies—mostly stagflation, energy crisis, urban blight, etc. Biden could be in a Carter situation. Republicans are looking at certain victory if this continues so long as Trump isn’t the nominee. Trump as nominee would probably give Democrats at least a 40% to 50% chance of victory. I expect Democrats to somewhat turn this around so long as they get things through Congress before midterms. They got a year. My hope is the pandemic will be over by then and Biden can claim to have brought the country out of it (exaggerated claim, I know). I also hope Democrats provoke Trump to jump in the race too early (pre-midterms) so that the midterms are about Trump and not Biden.
  10. This reminds of a week ago when I went to Bristol, PA. I’m not sure what the general politics of the town is. Seems kinda mixed. But there was this 80-year-old angry white guy driving around in an old vintage hot rod with a huge “F Joe Biden” sign. That was the first time I saw that. I didn’t get much of a reaction out of. Sort of seemed like a desperate old man trying to cling to some sort of relevance in the 21st century. I didn’t see anyone else really reacting to him either. I am yet to see an open Trump supporter in Eastern PA or Western or Southern NJ that is younger than than 50 or non-white and male.
  11. Must have been buried in their website for some reason.
  12. I was asking you. I hadn't even heard of this "Brandon" thing until just now. I looked it up, and to me it seems like it's just a Trump supporter thing. It isn't reported on main pages of TheHill, CNN, Reuters, Associated Press, Politico, RealClearPolitics, or even FoxNews. Probably isn't a big deal.
  13. That's not surprising. That's 2021 Iowa. Biden, Clinton, or any national Dem at 37 sounds about right. I'm actually sort of surprised Trump isn't higher.
  14. Isn't this just people that didn't vote for Biden anyway?
  15. That's a good point. Yeah, Trump has a low ceiling. I'm wondering if this means, because of Biden's higher ceiling, that Biden can potentially bounce back better than Trump ever could. I'm also curious as to how these demographics vote in 2024 vs. Trump if Biden's approval is about 45% on election day: Reliable Democrats (most certainly will vote Biden) Progressive Democrats disappointed with Biden (Still will vote Biden, but some may stay home) Moderate-to-Conservative Democrats disappointed with Biden (still will vote Biden, but may vote for a non-Trump GOP nominee) Independent Progressives (Those that were Bernie or Bust voters will not vote or vote Green, but those that don't believe in hostage-politics--such as me--will vote Biden gladly) Independent Liberals (If Yang runs, might vote for him 3rd party. Otherwise, they'll vote Biden or won't vote) Independent Moderates (Considering Biden is more moderate than Trump, especially rhetorically. I'd assume they'll lean more to Biden than Trump, if they vote at all. Some may vote Libertarian if the nominee is more moderate than a Ron Paul-type.) True Independent (These are those who vote without really considering the issues. They'll vote on how their last 4 years have been. If Biden's approval is at 45%, I assume those that vote major party will vote Trump. However, I expect those that had voted Trump and switched to Biden to not swerve back. You will see a large 3rd party voting here, if they vote at all. Independent Conservatives (This really depends on how the Jan 6th turns out. Those that were NeverTrump will not vote Trump, but I also think most won't vote Biden again. High 3rd party voting or not voting. However, some may see Trump as a threat and vote for Biden just to stop Trump if they are NeverTrump. Those that aren't Never Trump will likely vote Trump over 3rd party. Independent RW Populists (This is Trump's base. He's got all of them, except those too lazy to vote) Reliable Republicans (They'd be way more energized for DeSantis. They will largely vote Republican, if they vote. Some might vote Libertarian) This then leads to these thoughts (note: I think DeSantis wins in 2024 unless Biden hits 47%. If that happens, it's a tossup. Biden wins if he hits 50%): If Trump is the nominee, I expect voter turnout to be the lowest of any 21st century election. Most voters will not want either nominee and both candidates will now have presidential baggage. Low turnout generally helps Republicans. Similarly, I expect 3rd party turnout to be the highest of the 21st century. This tends to hurt the incumbent, which means it will help Republicans. However, I expect Libertarians to benefit the most from this, so it could hurt Trump, unless Yang runs 3rd party. If Yang runs 3rd party, expect the media and most liberals and progressives to vilify him since his candidacy would certainly doom Biden without Yang having a possibility of victory. I could see Yang-Gabbard as a ticket. Voter restrictions engineered by Republicans will also help Republicans. With this in mind, I kind of expect Trump to win if Biden's at 45%, but I also think Trump will lose the popular vote for the 3rd time in a row. I also expect the election map to look really odd because of high third party voting and low turnout.
  16. What was RCP averaging for Trump at this time 4 years ago?
  17. @Anthony_270 and @PoliticalPundit the average net approval is -4.9 on FiveThirtyEight. Trump's net approval at this time was -18.4!!!!!!!!!!!!
  18. That is a weird image. Reminds me of the photo in which Trump is at a short desk for some reason.
  19. Yeah, but I was talking about Biden vs my preferred candidates (Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren). I also said I would feel a lot less anxious with Biden as nominee over Sanders. I don't think Biden was any more electable than most of those running. He wasn't necessarily worse either though. I think if any were stronger than Biden it was Buttigieg or Booker. Unfortunately for Booker, he was like everyone's 2nd or 3rd choice in the primaries so no one voted for him. It's good to be everyone's 2nd or 3rd choice in a deadlocked Convention, but not in primary eras since 1972.
  20. My main reasoning against this is that, because of the power of incumbency, why would anyone allow a frontrunner to run that would be a 1-termer. It shows a profound lack of foresight that I don't expect political strategists to make. Here's some of my thinking: 1. If Biden is having a serious mental decline, and not just being standard gaffable Biden, political strategists would have known this in advance. They would have arguably worked to prevent it. I think even Obama would have seriously intervened. For whatever reason, they thought he was "fine" or "good enough." However, to play devil's advocate on this point, I did read a book on the Clinton-Gingrich matchup in the 1990s and it mentions Biden as "an orator from Delaware," which I thought was interesting. I know he likes to talk, but the term "orator" seemed odd. I haven't seen much video of him prior to 2008, so I'll have to check that out. In my opinion, the Biden of 2008 isn't terribly different from the Biden of 2021. I think he may fumble over words a little bit more, but this is something I do sometimes in public speaking. For me, it's mainly because I got all the things I want to say scattered around and I'm thinking faster than I'm speaking. 2. I don't believe that Biden was the only Democratic candidate that could have defeated Trump. He may have been the safest, since even my Republicans friends (including my Trump-supporting best friend) said they liked Biden during the Democratic debates. They didn't dislike Biden until he was the nominee and a few of these friends still liked Biden, even if they didn't vote for him. As president, I don't think any of them like him now. That's my argument for them forcing a Biden nomination. However, I think most of those Democratic candidates would have beaten Trump in that election. Some would have been more exciting than Biden. Biden, like Trump, are kind of like nostalgia nominees. Trump is for people that miss the 1980s. Biden is for people that miss the Obama years. 3. I doubt they would have expected Trump to run again if he lost, mainly because of Trump's age or Trump fearing a 2nd defeat to an incumbent. Especially, considering we haven't had back-to-back defeated incumbents since the 1888 and 1892 elections. I'm still not completely sold on Trump running again (50%). This means political strategists would have worked hard to make Biden the nominee with the idea that he would likely face someone new in 2024, likely DeSantis, Haley, Pence, Cruz, or Noem. I'd say Biden would have to bank on Cruz or Pence because the others would be flashier than Biden, most likely. 4. I don't think Biden would independently decide to run against the advice of strategists is my main point. He's a party man, unlike Trump. Biden wanted to run in 2016, but he obeyed the strategists to allow Clinton to enter as frontrunner. I think Biden steps aside only if Harris or other Democrat is much more popular and a Biden reelection bid is polling outside of competitive range as a loss. However, even in that case, who do they sacrifice? Better to have Biden lose in that instance. 5. Political strategists may have been so certain of a 2021-2025 term success that they thought Biden could run or decline without repercussion for his party. That's putting a lot of hope in a risky strategy. Perhaps they expected a Blue Wave in November 2020, thought COVID would evaporate allowing a new Roaring Twenties, and the Democratic dominant Congress would unleash infrastructure, election reform, police reform, gun reform, student loan debt reform, cyber security, etc. Maybe they were banking that an old Biden would be as a popular as an old Reagan. 8-years of Biden + 4-years of longtime VP Harris, similar to 1981-1993. 6. Last point, because I'm almost out of time to type, they thought Trump will have destroyed the GOP to such a degree that any Democrat would win in 2024 because of GOP disorganization.
  21. This applies to voting for Trump as well or even better. They knew to move away from him in 2020. I doubt Regret-a-Trumps move back to him. They’ll likely not vote or vote 3rd party if they become Regret-a-Bidens
  22. Still got 3 months and 3 years. Not sure why you’re falling for the slippery slope fallacy. Biden’s presidency has a long time left to change things. Consider that Trump’s approval was also at its worse at this time and then he turned it around somewhat, approval-wise. Same could happen to Biden.
  23. Do you have a credible link for this assertion? Where's the poll?
  24. I'd say this: Chance Kamala and Co. force Biden not to run: 20%. The remaining 80% is based on Biden maintaining an average approval that is higher than Trump's average approval in last election. This shouldn't be too hard to beat. Biden's at a low point but his Net Favorables are still much better than Trump's were. Something like -6 for Biden to -13 for Trump. Chance DeSantis runs if Trump jumps in the race first: 40%. I think DeSantis stays out if Trump jumps in before or just after midterms, GOP has a Red Wave, and Trump's favorables look better than Bidens. I think DeSantis runs if things look about how they do today: 1) GOP is conflicted on whether Trump should run, 2) DeSantis is polling decently well vs. Trump. Don't forget DeSantis is extremely ambitious. His time is 2024. By 2028, he might have missed his moment, sort of how Govs Christie and Jindal did. They were stars leading up to an election, but then wanted to wait 4 years. By then, people didn't care about them. DeSantis is the Christie and Jindal of the 2024 election. His moment is now. Trump's is long gone, although I expect Trump to run out of complete selfishness, even if it hurts his party and stifles better candidates. Chance Trump runs if DeSantis jumps in the race first: 50%. As said above. I see Trump being selfish enough that he could jump in even if DeSantis jumps in first. I think Trump doesn't jump in if, 1) GOP underperforms at midterms, 2) DeSantis jumping in early sees DeSantis greatly surpass Trump in polls. I think if DeSantis jumps in early, then Trump jumps in to take the nomination if, 1) Biden suddenly seems like he'll easily be defeated by whomever challenges him, 2) DeSantis attacks Trump in a way that pisses Trump off. 3) DeSantis gets hit with some sort of scandal or his approval declines. The big question is when Trump jumps in. I expect him to make a decision soon after Midterms or possibly right at Midterms to excite GOP voters to go to the polls. That might be the best strategy. If he still hasn't made a decisions long after midterms, it's because he's waiting to see if Biden will bungle something again. Kamala and etc forcing Biden not to run is an even more difficult issue. Forcing Biden out hurts Democrats in two ways: 1) It's acceptance that the Democratic administration isn't worthy of reelection. This also kills Harris or Buttigieg if they want to run. 2) It takes away the power of incumbency in the election. On top of this, there's no popular alternative to Biden, Harris, or Buttigieg right now. Harris is more unpopular than Biden. While Biden's avg approval is 45%, just like with Trump, the partisanship is such that Biden's is still approved by the base of his party. He's have to lose that support. For instance, while I consider myself an independent Progressive, the Democrats are my party by default (no other realistic option). I would "approve" of Biden if someone polled me. His policies, for the most part, are favorable. His rhetoric is much more refreshing. I like that he doesn't make it a daily quest to draw attention to himself as well. I assume most people that would vote for Biden, Harris, or Buttigieg feel the same about Biden. That is, supportive. As long as that support remains, Biden will be the Democratic nominee.
  25. Those are issues not a person. Biden's personally hardly in the headlines. He was yesterday because he went to Congress, but he was almost invisible for a week. Pelosi was in the headlines daily, Biden wasn't.
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