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vcczar

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vcczar last won the day on October 14

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    My blog: https://historymonocle.com/

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  1. That’s close to a personal attack but since he’s using “suppose” it somewhat diluted the attack into something less certain than a definitive attack. However, it is bad form and I could see one wanting admin to do something about it. It’s not really a full throated attack.
  2. Yeah, one reason why I think Madison's presidency is wildly overrated.
  3. vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W You are a US Senator and it is June 17, 1812. You are about to vote on a Declaration of War against Great Br
  4. NH makes the least sense. He’s up over +10 there. He must be giving up on OH and IA.
  5. Yeah, there must be other reasons. I was a manager of a video game store from age 18 to 21, but that was over a decade removed from when I applied to that job.
  6. Yeah, I messed up. Noticed that back on day 30 something. It kind of fits with what I'm doing anyway because the Monday before election day I won't be doing the forecast, I'll be doing my prediction, which will likely be more cautious than the forecast. Expect me to swing a lot of things to Trump that other pundits and polls aren't going to do. The forecast map is a polling forecast with a handicap added to lean Red states. My prediction will use that + the state poll trends + national poll tend + favorability tend + direction of country trend + approval/disapproval trend, with emphasis of the
  7. It seemed like they wanted their entry-level writers to not really have that much of a background in analysis or that much knowledge of geopolitics for some reason. The latter seems to be the primary reason I came off as overqualified.
  8. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/20/biden-transition-republican-cabinet-429972 According to this, Biden is considering: Fmr Gov John Kasich Gov Charlie Baker Fmr Sen Jeff Flake Fmr Rep Charlie Dent CEO Meg Whitman I think Baker would be the best of these. I only really like the others if announcing this early would help fend off Trump rising in the polls prior to election day. Flake might help a bit in AZ and Kasich might help a bit in OH. Dent in PA.
  9. I don't think he favors them, he just doesn't believe in ignoring them.
  10. Some of them were. Samuel Maverick was among one of the first people in Boston -- before John Winthrop even. Moses Maverick came later with their father, Rev. John Maverick. However, Rev. Maverick died after a few years. While Samuel Maverick lived in Boston originally, he later sold his land and went to Western Mass. Moses Maverick went on to help found Marblehead, MA, which has Maverick Square. There are Mavericks in Texas and in the West that were descended from the Maverick, probably mostly Samuel Maverick. Rev. John Maverick was one of the minister for Dorchester, which is now part of Bos
  11. I don't think that was due to RCP being better pollsters. Their arbitrary restrictions just sort of lucked out. It really isn't a good polling average if you aren't using but a handful of polls. Also, do you know if RCP was more accurate at every polling level or just more accurate on the presidential election?
  12. @admin_270 thought you might be interested by Nate Silver's criticism of RCP avg polling, since you seem to strangely favor it over the 538 polling:
  13. vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. Biden drops 0.5 in the polls nationally ---
  14. I think you brought this book up a year ago or so. I might have mentioned that I had an interview with Friedman's (the author) company Stratfor in Austin, TX. It was probably the best I ever did on an interview -- if overperforming is a good thing. I was applying for a writing position. While I had worked at the Huffington Post, and was well-read in geopolitics, I had no experience working for a company that dealt with analytics and much of the writing is based off understanding how analytics work and etc. Most of my interview involved me talking about various geopolitics books I had rea
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