Jump to content
270soft Forum


  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won


Posts posted by VoteGOP

  1. Now that primaries are being added, is anything being done to address the fact that Obama will have a 1 year head start campaigning against the GOP candidates? This was a problem in 2008 in scenarios with an incumbent. In another thread I suggested a cap on what he can do before a certain date.

    • Upvote 1
  2. By the way, why on earth would the upper class hate the Bushes when 80% of his tax cuts were given to them?

    I'm pretty sure he was referring to the affluent left wing progressives who like to think they can tell people how to live their lives. The democratic establishment if you will.

    • Upvote 4
  3. That was my point

    Sorry I didn't see the last sentence for some reason.

    Yeah theres too much baggage. Its unfortunate because Jeb is a lot smarter than his brother, but his brother essentially disqualified him from ever seeking national office. Also, if he were to be Romney's VEEP there would be the perception among Republicans (who are more sympathetic to the Bush family) that the ticket was in the wrong order. Romney needs to pick someone who won't overshadow him.

    Also Jeb himself said he wanted Rubio to be the running mate.

    • Upvote 6
  4. Jeb Bush is smart, liked by everyone in the Republican Party, been governor of the largest swing state for 8 years, got 80 percent of the Cuban vote in 2002 among non-Cuban Hispanics he got 56 percent in 2002. He had won 44 percent of Jewish vote in 2002. He won reelection by 56 percent. Is there two much baggage for him to on VP?

    And his last name is Bush.

    • Upvote 3
  5. Maybe when the primaries and caucuses roll around, you can actually enter an election night format similar to that of the General Election. Maybe you can pause the game and watch the returns come in from each state. I mean, it was awesome watching the Iowa and Ohio returns this year, close as all getout.

    Also, could the P4E2012 actually include the number of votes each candidate recieved in the primary campaign? All it tells me is the percentage of the vote.

    Fantastic idea, though it seems like it would be a bit of work.

    • Upvote 3
  6. Well, that does prove that Rubio is at least slightly a better choice, but the problem with that data is the question asks if they would be "more willing" to vote Republican, not a guarantee that they'll switch, just they that'll give it more consideration. So your 25-33% number is likely a lot smaller. I never denied a bump would occur, just that it would be a small one. Especially when Martinez is under the national spotlight. She's still pro-life, and she still has a strong stance on illegals. I would venture that most people in the country don't know much about her. The more people who know her the less who will vote for her, the opposite it true with Rubio. He almost has an Obama-esque charisma about him.

    • Upvote 2
  7. Then why did a portion of African American Republicans vote for Obama? People do care about if the person is of their race or gender. Polling shows that 25% to 33% would vote for Romney if he had a Latino on the ticket. 25% voting on the basis of race or ethinity is pretty darn convincing.

    I'd like to see that data first of all. All you've linked is a head to head match up Obama vs Romney among Latinos. Secondly, Obama got a 7% boost in African American votes from 2004. You can't tell me that that entire 7% can be attributed to race alone. Some of them? Yes. But Obama was able to inspire many different racial and social groups for a number of different reasons. The boost swing of black votes to Obama because of race is negligible at best.

    • Upvote 2
  8. If Rubio is not nationally prepared, then Romney shouldn't put him on the ticket. Could you see Rubio take over the Presidency if something happen to President Mitt Romney?

    Can you see Susana Martinez taking over the Presidency if something happened to Mitt Romney? If you want a balance between someone who can help the ticket and someone who could be an adequate president go with someone else because Martinez does neither.

    • Upvote 3
  9. Wrong again. President Obama won the African American vote by huge numbers because he was African American.

    Kerry won 88% of the black vote in 2004. Obama won 95% in 2008. Hardly a huge jump. And you can't attribute that entire gain to his race. Obama had a lot of appeal to a lot of people for a lot of reasons in 08. How much of that 7% voted for him JUST because he was black? Some, but not a significant number.

    You keep contradicting yourself. You keep saying various minority groups will flock to a candidate that belongs to their group only because that candidate belongs to their group, but every time one of us brings up Sarah Palin you dismiss your own logic because Palin was stupid. So either minorities and women are mindless sheep who look only at a candidates skin tone and genitals, or they're relatively informed voters who can look at the issues like the rest of us. You keep arguing the previous, but by your logic women should have flocked over to Sarah Palin. Problem is that Palin opposed most women on the issues that mattered most to them. Just like Martinez opposes Latinos (and women for that matter) on the issue that matters most to them. Latinos aren't just going to vote for any old Latino, and while I'm not saying Martinez is as bad as Palin, she brings nothing to the table aside from her race.

    • Upvote 3
  10. Picking a pro-life, tough on immigration governor with no other special qualities who just HAPPENS to be a female latino isn't going to get Romney anywhere. Give women and latinos more credit than that. They're not just going to look at her and be like "DURR SHE LOOKS LIKE ME" and vote for her. You need to give them something. Rubio is a smart, charismatic young senator with solid conservative credentials (yet isn't a partisan hack) from a swing state who would be a solid pick regardless of his race. His race is the icing on the cake.

    • Upvote 3
  11. That is not accurate at all.

    According to Univision/ABC poll on Latino voters

    Obama 67% Romney 25%

    Obama 70% Gingrich 22%

    Obama 69% Santorum 14%

    Ads spending for Republicans may help that number go up. About 25% to 33% of Latinos however would change their mind if a Latino was chosen for VP.

    So what? Those numbers aren't any indication of how many Latinos would switch over to Romney if a Latino were VP. Obama only got 7% more of the black vote in comparison to 2004. McCain still lost women badly despite Palin being on the ticket. You can't just blindly pick a woman or a minority and bank on all of them crossing over. You need to pick the right one. I think Rubio is the best choice for Romney, but picking a Latino just because they're a Latino isn't good enough.

    • Upvote 2
  12. Rubio might not get Hispanic voters. Susana Martinez is a better pick.

    Both of them work. I don't know much about Martinez though. She doesn't seem particularly intelligent. She's also much tougher on immigration than Rubio, and Romney and his running mate are going to have to run to the center on that issue.

    I think wooing Hispanics/women/independents is more important than shoring up the base.

    • Upvote 4
  13. Newt is not going to drop out and he's not going to endorse Santorum. If he endorses anyone it will be Romney. Newt's a smart guy. He knows how disastrous Santorum would be as the nominee, and he knows that Romney is the only of of the two with a realistic chance of being president. If Newt wants to help the party (which, despite his reputation, he probably does) OR if he wants to be part of the next administration, he will endorse Romney. Its also not clear whether or not his supporters would break strongly towards either Romney or Santorum. Newt is really a non-factor at this point. Whether he stays or goes won't have a huge impact on who the nominee is.

    • Upvote 3
  14. There are better options than Rice if you want someone with foriegn policy experience. Like Jon Huntsman. The connection to the Bush administration disqualifies her completely. She's probably far too moderate on domestic issues as well. Romney needs to pick someone that the base will be able to tolerate. I still think his best bet is Rubio.

    • Upvote 2
  15. None of you are objective. You're all trying to manipulate the facts and data to suit what you want to happen. Even trying to make predictions on who is going to win the general election this early would be silly. Right now it seems to be trending for Obama. A few months ago it looked like he was dead in the water a few months from now it may look like that again. It isn't necessarily about the economic data but about how its spun.

    If unemployment falls below 8%, then we can truly say that the GOP is in trouble. One of Romney's major attacks against Obama is that he promised that if we passed the stimulus unemployment would be below 8%. Well, if it does drop below 8%, Obama can easily claim that what he has done has worked, it just took a little longer. Not only that, he'll drop the populist tax the rich routine, which could further help the economy because he's no longer scaring the people who create jobs in this country.

    On the flip side, one bit of bad economic data from anywhere in the world could put Obama right back where he was last year. If the unemployment rate creeps up for some reason, even if its by very little and even if the general trend shows it going down, the GOP can once again use it to say Obama's policies have failed. Many things can make this happen. Hell it could even be a statistical anomaly, it could be a war in the middle east or something happening in Europe or even another debt showdown. So much of how people vote, and how people behave economically depends on expectations and the general mood of the country. Since people tend to give the president way too much credit/blame for what is happening, the economic climate is probably going to dictate the election results.

    That being said, what's going on in the primary season is hurting Romney. Its making him run to the right on issues that should never even be discussed, and the question becomes whether he can get back to the center in a reasonable way that doesn't make the flip flopper image worse. McCain had this problem in 2008. The most visible of these shifts to the right has been on immigration. Romney has always been a relative moderate on the issue, but his opponents dragged him to the right. Latinos are going to be crucial this year and if he alienates them he has no chance. He can mediate that by picking Marco Rubio, who I think is his best choice. At the end of the day, the base is going to come for him anyway. Rubio soothes some of the fears of not only the Latino, but of the Tea Party, who he is worshiped by. Theres a perception that Romney is going to have trouble with the base during the GE. That's simply not true. The base isn't voting for Romney because Santorum is such an attractive candidate to them. Not only that, the base is dwindling. The Tea Party is arguably the largest faction in the GOP right now. That being said, Romney is still pro-life, pro-traditional marriage, pro-gun etc. Or he claims to be. The base will vote for Romney because no matter how they look at it he's better than Obama on almost every issue to them. Romney's greatest problem is not allowing Santorum to pull him too far to the right, and picking a running mate who will alleviate some of the problems the candidate can't alleviate some of the problems the candidate can't fix themselves. Even though Romney shouldn't worry too much about the right-wing of the party he still can go so far to the center that they simply don't turn out. However, the likelihood of the right-wing running away from him if he moves too far to the center is far less than the independents running away from him if he moves to far to the right. And unlike the base/right/Tea Party/whatever, the independents will go to Obama. So Romney needs to move to the center, and hope his running mate can sooth the concerns of the right, while at the same time appealing to some key demographics. And who can do that? Marco Rubio. He gives you excites the Tea Party, he's acceptable to the base (if they'll vote for a Mormon they'll vote for someone who used to be), and he will win some Latinos. Picking Rubio can maximize Romney's chance of winning but at the end of the day the economy will still determine who wins the election. Not necessarily the raw economic data, but the perception, and the manipulation by both parties.

    • Upvote 5
  • Create New...